The Second Half of the Season Starts Now

Preston Smith Causing an Interception, Photo by Packers.com

The three best things about the Packers' 34-17 win against the 49ers last week: (1) beating the 49ers, regardless of circumstances; (2) getting a mini-bye to get healthier before their next game; and (3) moving up the playoff seeding chart to the 3rd NFC seed, (as they say) if the playoffs started today.

Let's be honest.  You can't draw any firm conclusions from the Packers' win against the 49ers.  They are simply too beat up, with players lost for the season, players temporarily on IR, and players on the Covid list.  I am sure I am missing some of them, but among the key players not available last Thursday night were Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Kendrick Bourne, and Brandon Aiyuk.  The 49ers had 13 players on IR, the most in the league.  Not a single player who touched the ball on offense for the 49ers in the NFC Championship game last year was in uniform Thursday night.  So as much fun as it was to watch, and as satisfying as it always is to this former Bay Area resident when the Packers beat the 49ers, I don't think we can just assume that all is now well again with the Packers.  And judging by the 14 point pointspread this Sunday when the Jaguars come to Lambeau Field, a dominant win in that game won't answer any questions about where the Packers are, either.

Still, all the players in the league are professionals, there are no easy wins in the NFL, and you don't get to pick when and where you play your opponents.  The undefeated Steelers almost lost to the reeling Cowboys on Sunday, and the not-great Patriots almost lost to the worst team in the league (the Jets) Monday night.  So you can't take any game for granted, as I think the Packers might have done before playing the Vikings two weeks ago.

On offense last Thursday, the two most encouraging developments were the successful return of Aaron Jones, and the re-emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  The Packers' medical/training staff is notoriously conservative, for example in holding out Davante Adams a week longer than he wanted to be held out.  So it was great that Aaron Jones played, despite reports earlier in the day that he would be held out.  It was a big boost for the offense, even though they were a bit on the cautious side in how much they used him.  

And just when everybody has had about enough of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and his drops, he gets single coverage, makes a great move on the DB and finds himself all by himself waiting for a 52 yard TD bomb.  I swear, if he had dropped that ball, people would have been calling for him to be cut at halftime.  But he hauled it in to make it 21-3 just before the half.  And he added another short TD later.  Maybe he can play well enough to be a second WR option (or maybe the third option after Lazard returns).  I laughed out loud when I saw this in one of the Packers Facebook groups during the game:

"Bears dropped Ted Ginn, Jr.  Gotta be better than MVS.

Update: maybe not."

On defense, I loved seeing the return of the "Smith Brothers" as impact players in the game.  Preston Smith created the first turnover of the game, and it seemed to change the momentum of the game.  Before that play, the Packers were sitting on a 7-3 lead early in the second quarter.  I wasn't worried about the outcome, but a big play here or there for the 49ers could easily have turned the game in their favor.  Instead, pressure from Smith led to a Raven Greene interception, which led to the TD pass to Marcedes Lewis.  From that point on, the game never seemed in doubt.  And then in the third quarter, Za'Darius Smith's strip sack and recovery put a bow on the win.  The score was 28-3 at the time, but for all practical purposes, it was over then, if not before.  

Anyway, next up are the 1-7 Jaguars to start the second half of the season.  They are obviously not going anywhere this year with their 1-7 record.  But last week and this week, their second year QB Gardner Minshew will be out, so they will be led on the field by rookie QB Jake Luton.  I found him impressive in his first start.  His first completion was a long bomb TD to DJ Chark.  He threw for over 300 yards, while rookie running back James Robinson chipped in with 99 yards on the ground.  The Jaguars came within a botched 2 point conversion of taking the Texans to overtime in Luton's first start.  On the other hand, the Jaguars defense gave up some big plays, especially in the passing game, yielding long bomb TDs to Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks.  It seems to me as if a year or two ago, the Jaguars had a strong defense, giving up few points and generating turnovers.  Whatever has happened to the defense, it didn't look that good last Sunday.  So Rodgers and Adams (and hopefully other receivers as well) ought to be able to do some damage on offense.  And rookie QBs make rookie mistakes, and I will be disappointed if the Packers don't come away with some more turnovers on Sunday.  

On paper, the Jaguars game is the easiest game remaining on the schedule.  After that, the Packers will have to face the Colts, the Titans, the Bears twice, the Lions, the Panthers and the Eagles.  But "on paper" means nothing if you don't go out and win the game.  "Sufficient unto the day . . . ," and all that good stuff.  So let's go get a win on Sunday, and worry about next week's game next week!

Seahawks-Packers, in the Playoffs at Lambeau Field

Graphic by the Green Bay Packers

Well, I certainly expected the Saints to beat the Vikings in the Wild Card round, which would have meant that the Saints would come to Green Bay.  My wish list also included the Seahawks beating the Eagles, as they did, in which case the task of knocking off the 49ers would have fallen to the Seahawks.  But the Vikings, quite impressively, managed to upset the Saints in New Orleans, meaning the Vikings go to San Francisco, and the Seahawks come to Green Bay. 

This week I am obviously rooting for a Packers win, but also for one final upset by the Vikings, of the 49ers.  (It takes a special circumstance to cause me to root for the Vikings.)  Those two results would result in the NFC Championship Game being held in Green Bay the following week.

If you feel as if the Packers' defense has been performing better down the stretch, you are right.  I wasn't aware of some of the details until I watched Tuesday's Packers Daily, which clued me in to the fact that in each of the last 5 games, the Packers have had at least one interception, have gotten 2.5 sacks, have not allowed a 100 yard rusher, and have not given up more than 20 points.  That is a recipe to win games, and of course the Packers have won those 5 games, just not convincingly enough for most fans, including me.  The Seahawks, on the other hand, have lost 3 of their last 5 games, so they are not exactly looking like world-beaters, either.  The Packers are 7-1 at home this year, but the Seahawks are 8-1 on the road.  Somebody is going to end up with loss number 2 on their season record.

The matchup with the Seahawks is an interesting one, with lots of history, some of it quite painful to Packers fans.  In the last 8 games between these two teams, the home team has won every game.  And yes, that includes the epic Packers collapse in the NFC Championship game in January, 2015, and the "Fail Mary" game with the substitute refs in September of 2012.  The two teams have also played two playoff games at Lambeau Field, the "Al Harris/Matt Hasselbeck" game in January, 2004, and the "Snow Globe" game in January of 2008 (Favre's last win as a Packers player).  The Packers won both those games.  I remember them well, since I attended both games.

My daughter punished herself this week by watching the NFC Championship game from 2015.  I didn't have the heart to watch that game.  So I watched instead the last game between the two in Lambeau Field, in September of 2017, which the Packers won, 17-9.  It was only two years ago, but it is amazing how much turnover there has been since then.  Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Clay Matthews were all playing.  So was Jimmy Graham, playing for the Seahawks (Graham dropped what would have been a first down pass in the 4th quarter, perhaps a harbinger of things to come).  And even Eddie Lacy made a cameo appearance, for the Seahawks.  And of course the Packers didn't have Aaron Jones or the "Smith Brothers," who undoubtedly will make their presence known on Sunday night. 

Rodgers looked a lot more accurate than he has recently, but the Packers didn't have the running game that they do now.  The offense sputtered in the first half, which ended with Seattle leading 3-0.  They looked more efficient in scoring 17 points in the second half, while the defense did some bending but not breaking, giving up only field goals.  Maybe the best part was watching the offense run out the last 6 minutes to preserve the 17-9 win.  Bottom line: I saw nothing in that game to make me think the Packers can't beat the Seahawks again. 

My advice to the Packers would be pretty much the same as I gave last week.  If the Packers win this game, it will be on the strength of the defense and the legs of Aaron Jones.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't need to carry the team on his back to get this win, and I hope he doesn't have to try.  They need to be aggressive on defense, emphasize the run, emphasize the short, quick-release pass until the defense tightens up, and then go for the occasional long ball.  The Packers released a picture Tuesday of an assistant coach wearing boxing gloves, trying to punch the ball out of the hands of runners.  Maybe they do that every week, but I have never seen a picture of it before.  I am interpreting that as a new emphasis in light of recent fumble problems.  I hope they have also been drilling with Rodgers to take the quick completion over standing back there waiting for things to develop, and to emphasize him throwing with his feet set whenever possible.  If they get and stay aggressive on defense, and they play within the offense as it was designed, they should win this game.

Packers' Defense Returns with a Vengeance

Before Monday night's game against the Vikings, I admit to being quite nervous about the Packers' chances.  Sure, with the game on the line, I would rather have Rodgers as my quarterback, rather than Kirk Cousins.  Sure, Cousins had never won a game on Monday night football.  But on the other hand, the Packers have always had trouble in Minnesota, and they had never won in the Vikings' new stadium.  Plus the Vikings' defense had broken Rodgers' collarbone there 2 years ago.  And people were arguing that Cousins has been playing better down the stretch than Rodgers.  And the Vikings were 6-0 at home this season.  Cousins had more yards and more touchdowns than Rodgers.  Blah, blah, blah.

So Packers fans (or this one, anyway) were in quite a mood after the Packers gave up 3 turnovers in the first half, while not getting any from the Vikings.  The Jones fumble on the first drive reminded me of games from the past, most recently the 49ers disaster last month.  You don't win many games when you are 0-3 in turnovers in the first half.  Still, the Packers' defense was stifling.  They held the Vikings to 3 points after that first fumble, they gave up a touchdown on a perfect pass to Diggs (Cousins' best pass of the night) after the Rodgers interception, and they gave up no points after the Adams fumble.  Meanwhile, the Packers were moving the ball well in between turnovers, but they were stalling and settling for field goals.

At halftime, as I grabbed something to eat, it hit me.  The Packers had given up 3 turnovers, but were otherwise moving the ball up and down the field.  With the exception of the perfect touchdown pass to Diggs, the Packers' defense was shutting down the Vikings, in both the running and passing games, and the Packers were only down 1 point.  The Packers had 13 first downs, to 2 for the Vikings.  The Packers had 3 times more total yards in the half, and 6 times the passing yards.  Despite the turnovers, the Packers were in great shape to win the game.  All they had to do was keep doing what they were doing, but without the turnovers.  And that is exactly what happened, with the Packers winning 23-10, in the process clinching the division, and keeping themselves alive to get a first or second seed in the playoffs and a bye week.

The heroes of the game, of course, were Aaron Jones and the defense, particularly the front seven.  Jones ran for 154 yards and two touchdowns, including the 56-yard "dagger" touchdown in the fourth quarter.  Meanwhile, the defense was shutting down the running game, and bottling up Kirk Cousins and the passing game.  Adam Thielen had no catches, while Diggs had 3 and Rudolph had one.  Now in fairness, it has to be mentioned that the Vikings were down to their third and fourth string running backs, Thielen is probably still hobbled with an injury that kept him out a few weeks, and Kirk Cousins had, well, a Kirk Cousins special awful game.  But you still have to make the plays on defense, and the Packers' defense did exactly that.

You could say that this was another ugly win, primarily because of the 3 turnovers.  But the heck with that.  Division games are always tough, and for the Packers to win a division game on the road against the Vikings, in a building where they have never won before, while overcoming the three turnovers, is good enough for me.  If that was ugly, let's have another ugly win this week.

After the game, the emotion and joy in the locker room, with the team sporting their "The North is Not Enough" T-shirts, was just overwhelming.  Later, I saw Tom Pelissero interview the "Smith Brothers" on the field, and I saw Za'Darius Smith literally choke up talking about how much the win meant to him, and how he had said that all he wanted for Christmas was a hat and a T-shirt.  And Z. Smith was a huge part of the win.  He had 3.5 sacks and 5 total tackles for a loss, the highest total in any game this year.  He was a one-man wrecking crew on this evening, and if he and the rest of the front seven can keep that up, it will be huge for the Packers in the playoffs.

Speaking of emotion, I saw that in Rodgers' post-game press conference, he mentioned the fact that he had been jeered in this stadium 2 years ago when he broke his collarbone.  I guess he has been holding onto that for awhile now.  While I am not sure that holding grudges is Rodgers' best quality, it is clear that nobody is better at it than Aaron Rodgers.  And if he can use that for motivation, more power to him.  Now the truth is, he did not play particularly well on Monday night.  The interception, his third of the year, was inexplicable to me.  Was he that inaccurate that he under-threw the ball by that much?  If not, what did he think he saw on that play?  But he got it done when it counted, by engineering drives resulting in field goals in the first half, to keep the game close, and by engineering touchdown drives in the second half, to put the game away. 

The very best thing about Rodgers' game on Monday, in my view, is that he repeatedly threw the short out passes that would gain 3, 5 or 7 yards, to move the chains down the field, while relying primarily on the running game.  That is exactly what his critics have been asking for.  Play within the contours of the LaFleur offense.  Take what the defense is giving you.  Move the ball down the field, rather than sitting back there looking for the big play and ending up being sacked.  If he can keep working the offense as it was designed, while benefiting from the resurgent Packers defense, they can continue to win games.  No need for heroics if they play like this and avoid the turnovers that almost sent the Vikings game off the rails.

The Packers have a great opportunity to win and secure a bye week against the Lions.  There are no "gimmes" in the NFL, and let's not forget that the Lions crushed the Packers, 31-0, in the finale last year.  But this is a very different year.  Just get it done!  And if the Packers do their job, and the Seahawks manage to beat the 49ers, the Packers will have the no. 1 seed for the first time in a long while.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all.

Not Quite a "Statement" Win

I Love Snow Games!  Photo by Adam Hunger, AP

In the wake of the disaster in Santa Clara last week, I was looking for two things in Sunday's game at the Meadowlands against the Giants: first and foremost a Packers win; and secondarily a convincing win to give me some level of confidence that the Packers were back on track.  Sunday's 31-13 win over the Giants was one of those games where you can really say that the game was closer than the final score.  It was a 4 point game at the beginning of the 4th quarter, and while I never felt as if the Packers were in much danger of losing the game, they did not blow me away playing against a pretty terrible New York Giants team.  I know, it counts just the same in the Win-Loss columns, but I was looking for a real statement, and I didn't feel as if I got it.  If you want to know what a statement win looks like, look no farther than the Ravens win against the 49ers.

The defense certainly played better against this terrible Giants team.  In giving up only 13 points, they had their best game since week one against the Bears (which the Packers won, 10-3).  They also got 3 interceptions, but obviously poor throws by Daniel Jones (under relentless pressure from Za'Darius Smith and others) had something to do with that.

On the other hand, the Packers' defense got no sacks despite the pressure, and they gave up 335 total yards, including giving up 20 first downs, 3 of them on 4th down plays.  So the bad news is that the Packers gave up lots of yards, and allowed sustained drives that used a lot of time and kept the ball away from the Packers' offense.  But the good news is that despite all that, they only gave up 13 points, in a good demonstration of the "bend but don't break" style of defense. 

I saw lots of things on defense that I didn't like.  While they, in general, did a good job of containing Saquon Barkley, they still gave up 4 plays to him of more than 10 yards (including one pass).  And they gave up two of their patented long passes down the middle of the field, one to WR Cody Latimer, and another to TE Kaden Smith. 

On offense, the Packers obviously looked a lot better than they did against the 49ers, but that is a pretty low bar.  The running game was nothing special, which is a little concerning against a team that is not that great against the run.  The game was won with the passing game.  I liked the fact that Rodgers threw the ball to 10 different receivers (7 of whom had catches).  I was less thrilled with the fact that Davante Adams was targeted as heavily as he was, but on the other  hand, Adams (along with Allen Lazard) was doing the most damage in the passing game, so good for the Packers for going with what was working. 

Special teams looked good, for a change, with perfect performance by the grieving Mason Crosby, a much stronger effort by J.K. Scott, and even good work on the return game (both as kicking and receiving teams).

In the last 5 games of the season, you would have thought that the Packers have an excellent chance to win 4 of them, including Sunday's Giants game (the other games are the Redskins, the Bears and the Lions).  The fifth game, at the Vikings, may well decide who wins the division, although the Monday night loss by the Vikings to the Seahawks really gives the advantage to the Packers to win the division.  But the Packers can't afford any missteps in the other games, or they potentially hand that advantage right back to the Vikings.  The win against the Giants was the first step, but I still think they are going to have to play better to get the job done.  The Redskins game at Lambeau Field would be an excellent way to get some momentum going.

Meanwhile, the playoff positioning goal has to be to get one of the byes.  At the moment, that would mean finishing above either the Saints or the Seahawks, both of whom are currently at 10-2 (so are the 49ers, but they are currently a Wild Card).  Among the top teams in the NFC, the Packers and Vikings have the most favorable schedule, since they each only play one team above .500 (when they play each other).  The Seahawks play the Rams and 49ers, while the 49ers play the Saints, Rams and Seahawks, and the Saints play the 49ers and Titans.  This will become a lot more clear as each week goes by, but if the Packers were to win out, I don't see a realistic way that they would not end up with a bye.  So just keep winning.

Packers' Best Defense in Years?

Game-Saving INT by Adrian Amos, Photo by Mark Hoffman, Milwaukee J-S

After all these months of waiting to see the new Matt LaFleur-led Packers, I didn't have much idea what to expect in the regular season.  First, we had to suffer through another meaningless preseason, with some unfortunate injuries, but without ever seeing Rodgers, most of the offensive starters, or many of the defensive starters on the field.  The Packers didn't look very good, even though they won the two home games, but with the joke the preseason has become, there was at least room to hope that they would look better when the games started to count.

And yet, the much-vaunted 100th season opener, on the road against the Bears, promised to be a tough one, given the strength of the Bears' defense.  Mitch Trubisky is still a question mark, but the Bears have a new rookie running back who looks like he might be a good one (David Montgomery), and the Bears also have some quality receivers, even though one (Trey Burton) missed this game.  But it wasn't the Bears' offense that worried me, it was the Bears' defense, the same one that knocked Rodgers into sub-par play for all of last year, that was really the cause for concern.

The addition by the Packers of some quality rookie and free-agent defenders carried with it the possibility of improvement, but I honestly did not expect the Packers' defense to match the Bears' defense, play for play.  The most prominent free-agent acquisitions were the two Smiths, Preston and Za'Darius, and Adrian Amos.  All three made a real difference in this game, and two of them provided the decisive plays that sealed the game.  The Smith "brothers" came up with 8 combined tackles and 2.5 sacks, while Amos contributed the decisive interception.

Both defenses played very well, as should be obvious given that the game score was 10-3.  But the Packers broke through and mounted one perfect TD drive to start the second quarter.  And that single drive was the difference in the game, as the Packers' defense only gave up a field goal the entire game.  The rest of the time, they just stopped the Bears in their tracks, time after time, including on 12 of the Bears' third down plays, and both of their fourth down plays.

Still, the game wasn't over until ex-Bear defensive back Adrian Amos intercepted Trubisky in the end zone with 2 minutes left.  And even then, it wasn't quite over, as the Bears got one final chance, thanks in part to the Packers taking a chance and throwing an incomplete pass when they were trying to ice the game.  But that last-ditch chance was snuffed out by Preston Smith's 4th down sack of Trubisky.

Speaking of that decisive touchdown drive, my reaction watching the miserable first quarter was this.  Under the way preseasons were conducted until a few years ago, Rodgers and the starters would probably have played about one quarter of one game in the preseason.  They didn't do that this year, and it looked like it in the first quarter.  NBC flashed the stat that the Packers lost 17 yards on the first two drives, making them the worst two drives to start a game for Rodgers as a starter.  After they got that lousy quarter behind them (the quarter they should have played in the preseason), it was time to shake off the rust and play like the Packers.

And lo and behold, that is exactly what they did, although it was mostly that one drive at the beginning of the second quarter.  Four for four passing, 74 yards, and a TD pass to Jimmy Graham.  Boom!  We watched the game on vacation in Hawaii with our friends Stan and Lorri (see photo below).  But my daughter and I, watching the game from 5 time zones away from each other, had exactly the same reaction to the Graham TD.  This was exactly what we expected to see from Jimmy Graham last year, but rarely saw.  Rodgers with the confidence to throw it to Graham, even though he was well covered, and Graham with the skill to pull the ball in despite the coverage.

With this somewhat improbable, 10-3 upset win, the Packers managed to beat their ancient rival, go a game up and a tie-breaker against them, and pull off a win on the road to start the season.  They also, according to the excellent NBC statistics crew, managed to hand the Bears their first loss, when the opponent scores 10 or fewer points, since 1932.  Now that is an obscure statistic, one for which they had to dig pretty deep.

And now, the Packers get the luxury of having 10 days to prepare for their home opener against the Vikings.  A win there will give them a great start to the season.

Stan, Lorri, Your Humble Blogger, and Judy, Watching the Game in Hawaii