The Sky is Falling! Or is it?

Supply Your Own Caption

The Packers have no chance!  It is a total disaster!  With one of the Packers' biggest stars out of the lineup due to Covid, and various other injuries and Covid problems, playing against one of the better teams in the league, there is no way that the Packers can keep their winning streak going.  The Packers will be lucky if the game is not totally out of hand by halftime.

As you might have guessed by now, that was more or less my reaction last week, when the news came down that Davante Adams would almost certainly miss the game against Arizona, Allen Lazard would definitely miss the game, and neither MVS not David Bakhtiari would be ready to return to the lineup.  And yet, the Packers won the game, holding on for a 24-21 victory when recent signee Rasul Douglas abruptly ended the Cardinals' chance with a dramatic end zone interception in the closing seconds of the game.  

Head coach Matt LaFleur deserves a lot of credit for a game plan that took advantage of the weaknesses of the Cardinals' defense, by emphasizing the running game rather than the passing game, which (not coincidentally) also emphasized the Packers' stronger suit under the circumstances, with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon leading the way.  Acting defensive coordinator Jerry Gray (taking the place of Joe Barry, also sidelined by Covid), also called a great game by consistently applying pressure to the Cardinals' passing game.  

Now, it is true that by the end of the game, the Cardinals were poised to spoil the Packers' day by either winning the game in the final seconds with a touchdown, or by getting a "gimme" field goal to take the game to overtime where, with all of the momentum having shifted to the Cardinals' side, the Cardinals would probably have won.  This, in my view, was mostly the result of questionable play calling by LaFleur (or perhaps Rodgers at the line of scrimmage) in the red zone.  Three times, the Packers had first downs inside the Cardinals' 5 yard line (once in the second, once in the third, and once in the fourth quarters).  Despite the game planning for the running game, inside the 5 yard line, the Packers mostly emphasized the pass.  They ended up with 10 points to show for those 3 possessions.  Sticking with the running game plan would likely have yielded 14 points, maybe 17 points, maybe even 21 points.  Any of those results would have changed the complexion of the game in the closing minutes.  As it was, it took the last minute interception by Douglas to secure the win.

OK, well if last week I thought the Packers would almost certainly lose, what about this week?  This time, they have to travel to play the Chiefs, and this time they are without their biggest star, Aaron Rodgers, who has not only come down with Covid-19, it turns out he has clearly been trying to mislead the public by creating the impression that he has been vaccinated ("Yeah, I've been immunized"), when the truth is that he has not.  Even vaccinated players can catch the virus, but by (in my opinion, stupidly) refusing to get vaccinated, Rodgers increased the odds that he would get the virus, and increased the chances that his infection might be a serious one.  Not exactly a profile in team leadership, and he richly deserves all the blowback he is getting in the media and with fans.  

At any rate, instead of getting the Mahomes vs. Rodgers matchup many had been anticipating, we now will have the first career start by second year QB Jordan Love.  Is Love up to the task?  As Matt LaFleur said, "we'll find out."  Either way, this will be a preview of coming attractions when Rodgers leaves town, and whether we like it or not, we will be getting that preview sooner than we had hoped.

While Love's first start will be against the reigning AFC Champions, that is not quite as daunting a task as it would have appeared at the beginning of the season.  The Chiefs have been having a weird season, and they are only 4-4. and have given up more points (220) than they have scored (208).  They have lost to some good teams, but they also came close to losing to the Giants last week.  Meanwhile, the Packers will have Lazard and MVS back this week, and most likely Adams as well.  It is possible that even Bakhtiari will be back.  With Rodgers out, Love's backup would normally have been Kurt Benkert, but Benkert is also out on the Covid list.  Fans of the series The Good Place will be happy to know that Blake Bortles was whisked off a Florida golf course, caught the next plane to Green Bay, and will serve as Love's backup on Sunday.

Having escaped with a short-handed win against the previously undefeated Cardinals NFC team last week, the Packers are essentially playing with house money at this point.  LaFleur has had all week to design a game plan around Love's strengths and avoiding his weaknesses.  Love looked pretty good in his limited action for the Packers in the preseason and in mop up duty in Week 1.  To my mind, the Packers' task this week is far less hopeless than the task last week against the Cardinals.  I think they have a real chance to win this game.  And if they don't, at least the loss will be to an AFC team, which is obviously less harmful than a loss to an NFC team.  Go Packers!

Packers Get a Bye Week to Figure Out Their Problems

Crosby's Game Winner, Photo by Rey Del Rio, Getty Images

We watched the game with our Lions fan friend Al, and he was assuring us all game long, especially as the Lions built their lead in the first half, that the Lions would collapse in the second half, and the Packers would win it on a score in the last minute or so. [Editor's note: Al points out that he actually said the Lions would lose in the last 3 seconds. I stand corrected.]  Now that is some serious fatalism, but as he said, "that is how the Lions play this year."  And sure enough, the Packers never led during the entire game, until the final play, when a Crosby field goal sailed through to give the Packers the win, and in the process, a bye week, by the score of 23-20.  And this was a perfect bookend win for the Packers, since in the Week 6 matchup with the Lions, the Packers again never led until the final play of the game, with Crosby's field goal that night giving the Packers a 23-22 win.

For the last couple weeks, I had been trying to talk myself into the proposition that division games are always close and hard-fought, and therefore there was no problem with winning in a bit of an ugly fashion.  But getting beat all day by a 3-11-1 team, with 17 players on IR including their starting quarterback and other starters, is really putting my proposition to the test.  Can we continue to make the argument that there is  no problem after Sunday's game?  I found it pretty disappointing, and by halftime I thought the Packers would lose the game, have to play again this week, and I was not even sure I liked their chances against the Vikings, which is the team they would have played in the Wild Card round.

But then, as has been the case many times this year, they staged their comeback and won the game.  Bye secured, week off, possibility of the number one seed was still in the air until Sunday night.  No problem?  I think there obviously is a problem.  In recent weeks it has been really clear to me that there is something wrong with Rodgers.  He is missing throw after throw that he could have made in his sleep in the past.  He usually makes enough throws to keep us close, and then either he, or Aaron Jones, or the defense, manage to pull the game out in the end, but I no longer have the confidence that Rodgers can make any throw at any time necessary.

On the other hand, we can't ignore that they keep finding a way to win these games.  Stifling defense won it last week.  This week the defense wasn't as good, but then the defense stiffened in the second half, and the Packers' offense made just enough plays on offense to tie the game, and then win the game, in the last few minutes.

Why do I think there is a problem with Rodgers?  You can't watch him tie the record for overthrows in a game (16), and tell me there is no problem.  If the Packers figured out a way to win the division the previous week, with a lot of short passes to move the ball down the field, coupled with a heavy reliance on the running game, why was that strategy abandoned during the entire first half against the Lions?  If your QB is repeatedly overthrowing mid to long range passes, how does Matt LaFleur not adjust his play-calling until the second half?  And how does the QB with a perfect passer rating against the Raiders two months ago, play like an average QB over the entire month of December?  I suppose the best case would be that he is in a slump that ends now and they cruise through the playoffs like they did after the 2010 season.  Or maybe he has some nagging, undisclosed hand or shoulder injury that might improve over the bye week?  Or maybe he needs to stop relying on pure arm strength and set his feet to get his entire body into his throws?

I re-watched the Lions game with these questions in mind.  I found the offensive game plan to be puzzling in the first half, with heavy reliance on longer throws, despite Rodgers overthrowing most of them.  In the second half, there was a noticeable shift to more emphasis on shorter passes, and more reliance on getting the ball to Aaron Jones, either running or as a receiver.  This resulted in scoring 20 points in the second half, as compared to 3 in the first half.

I also watched Rodgers' throwing mechanics.  No theory will explain every good and every bad throw.  But what I noticed is that he throws a lot of balls without setting his feet, even if he is relatively safe in the pocket.  And I noticed that he tends to overthrow a lot of those longer balls where his feet are not set.  On the other hand, he completes most of his short passes, even if he does not get his feet set.

So the game plan for the first playoff game should include the following points.  (1) use more pressure on defense - in the second half against the Lions, the Packers applied more pressure and gave up only 3 points.  (2) don't forget about the running game and the short passing game.  In fact, these should be the emphasis of the offense.  (3) take periodic longer shots down the field, especially as the defense adjusts to the short game, but practice, practice, practice having Rodgers get his feet set before unleashing longer throws.  If the Packers can do those three things, they have a great chance to get to the NFC Championship Game.  If they don't, and come up with a game plan like they used in the first half against the Lions, they have no chance.

Another "Unsatisfying" Win

Lots of My Relatives Were at the Game

Happy Days are here again!  (Well, sort of.)  The good news is that the Packers, by beating the Redskins Sunday (20-15), have recorded their 10th win out of 13 games.  In so doing, Matt LaFleur became the first coach in the history of the Packers to get 10 wins in his first season.  Special shout out to all my family members who attended the game, including relatives from Israel.  Wish I could have been there!

The Packers now have a 93% chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.  Also, with the 49ers' win over the Saints on Sunday (and other results), the Packers' chances of getting a first round bye have improved to 37%.  (I admit that I had to rinse the foul taste out of my mouth after rooting for the 49ers comeback.)

With Thanksgiving in the recent past, it is worth noting and giving thanks for how much better the Packers' situation is this year, as compared to the years we have had in the past where, at this time of the season, we would have to sit around and say something like, "let's see, if the Packers win out, and the Vikings lose 2 out of 3, or if the Eagles, Rams and Seahawks each lose 2 out of 3, then the Packers will sneak into the playoffs."  And of course the last two years were even worse, when the Packers finished with losing records and well out of the playoffs.

But the bad news is that the Packers looked, how shall I say it?  "Uninspired?"  They started out hot, going up 14 points in the first quarter, then let the Redskins creep back into the game, with the Packers only winning by 5 points.  Almost a carbon copy of the Giants game last week, except at least in the Giants game the Packers threw in the flourish of two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to pull away.  This time they got a field goal in the third quarter, and another in the fourth, to put the game just slightly out of reach of the weak Redskins team, playing with a hobbled rookie quarterback.  (The fast start the last two weeks with the Packers' opening scripted plays raises the half-serious suggestion, "why not script the first 50 plays if the script works so well?")  The way the team played on Sunday, you could maybe see the Packers win a home playoff game, if they are lucky enough to get one, but you have to scratch your head to figure out how the Packers would go about winning a game on the road against the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks, or even the Vikings.

I actually have some sympathy for LaFleur, Rodgers and the other players, who have to face all these questions about why the win wasn't more convincing.  I get it, style points are not included in the Win-Loss columns, and it is a good thing they aren't, because the Packers are short on style points this year.  You should not have to apologize for a 10-3 record.  But it is frustrating (for players and fans alike) that they still haven't put together a complete game all year.

You could say that they had a pretty complete game on defense against the Bears in Week 1, and a pretty complete game on offense against the Raiders in Week 7.  But they really haven't come close to putting the pieces together in a single game.  In this connection, I can't help but mention that the game against the Redskins was the first game in which all aspects of the special teams looked good.  No penalties that I recall, no missed kicks, good punts, and for the first time all year, a return game with new returner Tyler ("Swervin") Ervin.  Ervin has single-handedly, in his first game, saved the Packers from setting the record for worst punt-return yardage in an entire season.

Let's take a step back.  Obviously, nobody expected the Packers to do this well this year, with a rookie coach.  We probably expected something more akin to a rebuilding year than a title run.  It is worth remembering that, as I said a few weeks ago, the Packers are mostly finding ways to win games this year that they would have lost in prior years.  I saw a statistic that the Packers were 3-6-1 in one-score games last year, while they are 6-1 this year.  All of this is good, even if the Packers are not providing the "wow" factor where fans and teams can't see how anyone can beat this team.

Still, every week, I keep thinking that this will be the week for everything to gel, but it has not happened yet.  If the Packers could just switch on their complete game at will, they should have thrown the switch by now.  Meanwhile, other leading teams (most prominently, the Ravens) seem to be peaking at the right time, with the playoffs around the corner.

This week the Bears come to town, boasting a 3 game winning streak, and clinging to slim playoff hopes.  A loss to the Packers will essentially end any hopes of the Bears for the playoffs.  A win by the Packers will clinch a playoff berth for Green Bay.  This is the 200th meeting of the two teams, with the Packers holding a slim all-time edge over their big-city rivals.  The game will be played in the cold at Lambeau Field (current projected high is 14 degrees.)  This game is actually a huge game for both teams, and we know that the Bears will be motivated.  Will the Packers?  And if not now, then when?