Terrible Performance Snaps Packers' Winning Streak

Cousins Enjoying the Ambiance, Before the Carnage Started

Well, we figured out a way to watch the game from overseas.  Maybe it would have been better if we didn't, so that our only exposure to the game was through the box score.  Losing to the Chargers (previously 3-5) by the score of 26-11 would look bad enough in the box score, but it would not have conveyed how terrible the Packers looked in all phases of the game.  Teams have off days, but can you have a day this far off without starting to wonder if the team is as good as you thought it was?

The Packers could not block Jake Kumerow's big cousin, Joey Bosa (and, as someone mentioned, they have the other Bosa cousin to deal with in San Francisco after the bye week).  On defense, the "bend don't break" thing kept the Packers in the game until the second half, since they forced field goals on the Chargers first four scoring drives.  But two second half touchdowns by the Chargers, as the defense ran out of gas, put the game out of reach.  And the special teams gave up the blocked punt that ended up really sealing the deal.

To his credit, Matt LaFleur acknowledged that the Packers were out coached and out prepared by the Chargers.  That might be the diplomatic thing to say, but in this case, it has the additional advantage of being true.  The Packers finally figured out a plan that worked on offense in the fourth quarter.  It was a hurry up offense with short, quick-release passes, and it resulted in the Packers' only touchdown.  That was too little and way too late.  Maybe they should have tried that in the first half to get a rhythm going. 

Rodgers talked about focus and the team not being "locked in" after the game.  There seemed to be a suggestion that maybe arriving a day early contributed to that lack of focus, although LaFleur claimed on Monday that nobody missed curfew before the game.  But I think it is a safe bet that the team will come out on Saturday, rather than on Friday, for the San Francisco game in a few weeks.

On Sunday, the 5-3 Panthers come to Green Bay.  On paper, the Panthers are a better team than the Chargers, and they certainly have one of the league's top rushers in Christian McCaffrey.  The Packers have given up a lot of rushing yards this season, so McCaffrey can obviously pose problems.  If the Packers are not as bad as they looked on Sunday, and if the Chargers' game was a bit of an anomaly, they should come back with a vengeance and win this game.  But if they lose this game, to take a two game losing streak into the bye, it may really be time to reevaluate how good this team is.

Packers Finding Ways to Win Games

Aaron Jones, star of the game, photo by Ed Zurga, Associated Press

Sunday night's game was another game that the Packers, in past lives, might have lost.  They have for many years had a habit of making backup quarterbacks look great, going back to Jason Garrett as the backup quarterback for the Cowboys.  In this case, Andy Reid had smartly devised a game plan where the ball was out of Matt Moore's hands as quickly as possible.  So as a result, he ended up getting hit far less frequently than Rodgers.  And he looked pretty good - like one of the veteran backup quarterbacks we wished we had on the roster during the seasons that Rodgers missed a lot of time.  He certainly looked good enough to have a real chance to manage a game tying drive at the end and send the game to overtime.

Reid had also designed a good defensive game plan, involving a lot of physical man coverage and a lot of blitzes against Rodgers.  So even though the Packers quickly went up 14-0, the Chiefs kept the pressure up and came back to take a 17-14 lead.  In the fourth quarter, the Packers went back on top, first by 24-17, and later by 31-24. 

So when the Packers held the Chiefs and forced a punt with 5 minutes left in the game, and the punt was downed at the Green Bay 2, there were all kinds of things that could go wrong.  A turnover, a safety, a 3 and out giving the Chiefs the ball back at around midfield, a Tyreek Hill punt return.  And in the case of past Packers teams, one of those things would probably have happened - most likely giving the Chiefs the ball back with enough time to at least mount a drive to try to tie the game.

When the Packers found themselves with 3rd and 5 at the two minute warning, I wanted to see a passing play to get the first down and ice the game.  I can see the argument being made that you have to run the ball to keep the clock moving, and anyway your defense should be able to prevent a touchdown.  So run it, hope for the best, and probably have to punt the ball.  But LaFleur obviously decided that, with a Hall of Fame quarterback behind center, a short pass to get the first down is the way to go.  If they call the perfect defense, Rodgers is smart enough not to do something stupid, and at worst he can pull the ball down and hit the turf for a couple yard loss.  I like the philosophy that we will go out and try to win, rather than just avoid all risk and hope to hold them.  As LaFleur apparently told Rodgers, "go win the game."  Which they did, 31-24.

The Packers are doing lots of things right this year, in spite of a defense that is sometimes too porous, an offense that had a slow start to the year, and special teams that are a mess except for Mason Crosby and J.K. Scott.  But if there is one thing that they are doing right better than I have seen in years, it is finding a way to win close games.  Not every game is going to be a blowout, and the Packers have had to come from behind in 5 of their 8 games this year.  Only against the Eagles did they fail to complete the job and win the game, although they had multiple chances to tie up the game.  I have always felt that the really good teams find ways to win those close games, and this year the Packers seem to be doing that.

The evidence becomes more clear every week that there is a silver lining to the absence of Davante Adams.  The Packers have discovered that Aaron Jones is a legitimate receiving threat, and they lined him up as a wideout on numerous occasions during the game.  He ended up being the leading receiver for both teams in the game with 159 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns, and another one where he stepped out of bounds.  If you imagine the offense being as good as it is right now, and then layer in Davante Adams on top of that, this could turn out to be a very special season if everyone stays healthy after he returns.

I don't think anybody would have predicted that the Packers would be 7-1 at this point in the season.  The next game, against the Chargers at Dignity Health Sports Park in Los Angeles is one of the road games where I expect a win.  The Chargers don't really have a home fan base yet in Los Angeles, and they have had a disappointing season.  So the tiny, 27,000 seat temporary stadium will be filled with Packers fans, including cousins John and Ben, and even my local State Farm agent, Matt.  We would normally go to a game this close to home, but we are out of the country and unable to attend.  The weather should be great (unless it is still smoky from all of the California fires), and I hope I can figure out a way to watch the game.

Battle of the Unbeatens

Image by NBC Sports

Where, exactly, do the Packers stand as they finish their bye week and charge into the rest of the season?  The objective metrics say they are in great shape.  They are 6-0, one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the conference.  They have scored 164 points, while giving up only 101.  Only two teams (Patriots and Cardinals) have a greater margin of points scored over points given up.  On defense, the Packers have more sacks than any team in the NFC, and trail only the Broncos in sacks.  On offense, only Brady and Palmer have more TD passes than Rodgers (and those two have played 7 games, not 6).  Among full-time starters, only Brady has fewer interceptions.

And yet . . .  somehow it does not feel as if the Packers are in great shape.  From the fact that the offense has struggled now for three games in a row, to the fact that the defense, previously dominant, gave up a record-setting number of yards to Philip Rivers and the Chargers before the bye, there is a real sense that this team is fortunate to be sitting at 6-0.

Maybe they are, in some sense.  But I have always admired the teams that find a way to win the games that could easily have gotten away from them.  And I have frequently complained, in years past, when the Packers found ways to lose games that they could have, or should have, won.

The current Packers team is not only finding ways to win games, they are getting help from the most unexpected places.  Jordy Nelson is out for the season, Davante Adams has missed several weeks, and Ty Montgomery is injured in the middle of the game?  Jeff Janis steps in and makes a couple of big plays.  (Speaking of unexpected, could anyone have predicted, as of July of this year, that James Jones would be averaging a touchdown per game for the Packers?)  The Packers lose several defensive backs in free agency, and then Morgan Burnett misses several games?  No problem, Damarious Randall not only makes the game-preserving play on fourth down, he actually baits Philip Rivers into making the throw so he can bat it down.

State of the NFC North:

It has been obvious for weeks that only the Vikings (4-2) pose a serious division challenge to the Packers this year.  The Bears are 2-4, while the Lions have the worst record in the league at 1-6.  My Lions fan friend Al points out that it has gotten so bad that there is a petition pending to revoke the passports of the Lions while they are in London for their Sunday morning game.  I can't support that petition, since a new Lions team constructed from scratch could turn out to be better than the current team.  But anyway, the point is that the Packers' first goal is to win the division, and they are in great shape to do just that.

Sunday Night Game

The Sunday night game against the Broncos has the makings of a classic.  Two 6-0 teams meeting in a nationally televised game.  Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, meeting each other for the last time, unless they happen to meet again in Super Bowl 50.  A lot of Packers-Broncos history, from the Monday night blizzard game back in 1984, to Super Bowl XXXII, to the Monday Night overtime game won on the bomb from Favre to Jennings on the first play of overtime in 2007.

The Packers' biggest problem will be when the Packers have the ball and the Broncos' are on defense.  The Broncos' defense is ranked no. 1 overall.  while the Packers' offense is in the top half of all teams.  Here, the bye week could make a major difference for the Packers since, in my view, injuries have been a big part of the Packers' struggles on offense.  Davante Adams has missed more time than he has played, while Randall Cobb has been hobbled by a shoulder injury, and both Eddie Lacy and James Starks have struggled with injuries.  Thanks to the bye, Adams should be back and fine, Cobb should be better, and so should Lacy.  So the Packers will have a better chance of getting the running game going, and of stretching the field with outside deep balls to Adams.

On the other side of the ball, if you think that the Packers have under-performed on offense, you should take a look at the Broncos' offense.  They are in the bottom 5 and you can't really blame it on injuries, either.  Peyton Manning is clearly nearing the end of his career, and does not seem to have the zip on the ball, or the accuracy, that he used to.  The departure of Julius Thomas to Jacksonville hurts, because he was and is one the best tight ends in the league.  And they can't seem to get the running game going, either.

Having said that, I have the uncomfortable feeling that Manning will turn it around at some point, and look like the old Peyton Manning, even if he can't maintain it for the rest of the season.  Could Sunday night be the game where he turns it around?  Let's put it this way - a nationally televised Sunday Night game, after a bye week off, is a pretty good candidate for a game in which Manning looks rejuvenated.

So I expect to see the Broncos bring out not only their formidable defense, but an offense that looks much better as well.  I am betting that the Packers' off-day on defense against the Chargers was a bit of an anomaly, and I am also betting that the Packers' offense will be improved with the return of healthy (or at least healthier) Adams, Cobb and Lacy.  The bottom line is: obviously this game could go either way.  But I like the Packers' chances, in what will likely be a very close game.

Packers Charging into the Bye Week

Quinten Rollins' Pick 6 - Photo by Jim Biever

For the second week in a row, the Packers' defense had to carry the day, as the Packers struggled on offense, but came away with a 24-10 win over the Rams on Sunday.

There now seems to be a clear game plan to stay close to the Packers, for teams that have the horses on defense.  They have to have a strong front line, to put some pressure on Rodgers without blitzing, and to keep him from stepping up in the pocket.  Then they have to play a lot of Cover Two defense, which is generally effective against a West Coast Offense, and has always been frustrating for Rodgers.

But there are some problems with this strategy.  First, most teams don't have a strong enough front line to make this work.  And second, even if you can keep the Packers' offense somewhat in check, you still have to deal with the Packers' newly dominant defense.  So these past two weeks, the 49ers and Rams have caused problems for the Packers' offense, but they had no answer at all for the Packers' defense, which has allowed a total of only 13 points in those two games.  And maybe a third problem with this strategy is this: even if you have the defense to play this game against the Packers, the Packers have traditionally beaten this strategy with the deep outside threat.  In past years, Jordy Nelson was the guy who most frequently provided that threat.  That won't happen this year, but if the Packers can develop that threat, either in Davante Adams when he returns, or in Jeff Janis (who has the speed but not the trust of Rodgers or the coaching staff), or in Ty Montgomery (who has the trust but not necessarily the speed) there may be no stopping the Packers' offense.

The Packers intercepted Nick Foles 4 times (thanks in large part to a ferocious pass rush), once for the pick-six depicted in the photo above, and they sacked Foles three times.  I realize that the Packers gave up 159 yards rushing to Todd Gurley, but 95 of those yards were in the second half, i.e., many of them were garbage-time yards, and they produced a total of 0 points.  Time will tell if the Packers can continue to play like this on defense, but so far they look very good despite the defensive injuries sustained this year.

Sunday, the Chargers come to Green Bay, on a short week after their Monday night game.  This will be the last game before the Packers' bye week, and it would be a huge plus to be 6-0, with two weeks to get healthy before their trip to Denver for a Sunday night game.  The Chargers already trail the Broncos by three games after five weeks, so they would love nothing more than to be able to beat the Packers and at least keep pace with the Broncos for another week.  And the Chargers do have a good offense; in fact Philip Rivers leads the league in passing yards.  But his offensive line was a mess Monday night, and is still expected to be on Sunday.  That, combined with the way the Packers have been rushing the passer while keeping the running game mostly contained, is not a good combination for the Chargers.  I was not all that impressed with the Packers' offensive game plan last week, and I assume they realize, just like the fans, that it was lacking.  I expect them to correct this on Sunday, come out with a much better game plan, and put up a lot more points.  I think this should be a big win for the Packers.

The Packers' "Struggling" Defense

(Green Bay Press-Gazette photo by Corey Wilson)

What is wrong with the Packers' defense?  While the Packers beat the Chargers on Sunday, 45-38, the fact that they gave up 38 points to the previously-struggling Chargers, and that they again needed a last-minute interception (by Charlie Peprah) to seal the win, is causing a lot of teeth-gnashing among Packer fans.

The two best quotes I have heard about the state of the Packers' defense come from Charles Woodson and from the Packergeeks blog.  Woodson, after the game, said, "We like to think that we have a lot of playmakers on our defense, especially in the back end.  We feel like if the ball is in the air, we'll come up with our fair share certainly. But how many times are you going to have two interceptions for a touchdown? … Yeah, today it played out big for us. But we have to be more sound as a defense throughout the whole game." And the Packergeeks, who provide high quality commentary on the state of the Packers, said, "If our defense didn’t cause turnovers, we would be absolutely awful."


As an aside, I laughed when I heard, in the days leading up to the game, that the Chargers were piping in crowd noise to their practices, anticipating a large volume of Packer fans at the game.  But sure enough, the Packer fan crowd noise was a big enough problem that the Chargers used a silent count on offense toward the end of the game.  Yes, there are Packer fans all over, and a side trip to San Diego during the month of November probably sounded good to a lot of Packer fans.


But getting back to the Packer defense, what is the problem?  There was some discussion this week about "communications problems" in the secondary.  But I think the root of the problem is the lack of pass rush of the front 3.  The Packers let Cullen Jenkins get away in free agency, signing with the 3-5 "dream team" Philadelphia Eagles.  The push by the defensive line has not been the same since he left.  Last year, the defensive line consistently got enough push against the offensive line to back them up.  Sometimes, the defensive linemen themselves would reach and sack the quarterback.  Other times, when a rusher came around the corner (most frequently Clay Matthews), the quarterback could not step up in the pocket, and was frequently sacked by the rusher from the edge.  Last year in the regular season, the Packers as a team had 47 sacks, with the starting defensive linemen having 14.5 sacks, and with Clay Matthews getting 13.5.

This year, without Cullen Jenkins, the defensive line is not getting the same push.  As a result, sacks by the defensive line have fallen off, and so have sacks by rushers coming from the edge.  When that rusher comes around the corner, most of the time the quarterback just steps up into the pocket, and Matthews, or Woodson, or whoever the rusher is goes sailing by behind him.  After half the regular season is over, the Packers as a team have only 19 sacks, the starting defensive linemen have 5 sacks, and Clay Matthews has 3 sacks.

This drop-off in productivity of the pass rush seems to have led Dom Capers to make some different choices in making the defensive calls.  He knows: (1) that the offense is going to score a lot of points; and (2) that the front 3 are not getting the job done like they did last year.  As a result, if he wants a pass rush, he has to add extra rushers, which in turn creates more chances of giving up big plays.  It is no coincidence that all three Packer interceptions of Rivers last week occurred on plays where the Packers rushed 5 or more players.  Charlie Peprah described the Packers as a pressure defense, and he is right.  The problem is, they can't seem to create that pressure this year without blitzing.  And one of these weeks, that is going to result in a long touchdown pass, instead of an interception, at precisely the wrong moment.

Monday night, the Vikings come to town for their re-match with the Packers.  What with Favre retired again, and with the Vikings at 2-6, the game may not have the same luster as it did last year.  But the Vikings almost always play well against the Packers, and Christian Ponder looks like he has some talent.  I think the Vikings may keep it close for awhile, but the Packers should pull away toward the end of the game.

Second Half of the Season Starts Now

(Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

"Christian Ponder has already had a better rookie season than I had."  Troy Aikman, after the first 20 minutes of the Packers' pre-bye game, with the score 14-7 Vikings.

The Packers set all kinds of individual, team and league records in the game, and overcame early deficits to beat the Vikings, 33-27, sending themselves into the bye week as the only undefeated team left in the league.  However, nagging issues continue to cause concern to the fans and, I would hope, to the players and the coaching staff.

First, a few of the records:

• Mike McCarthy reached 25 road victories as a head coach faster (after 44 games) than any other Packer coach in history, other than Vince Lombardi (36 road games).
• The Packers' 13 game winning streak in games that count is the best in Packers' history.
• The Packers won their 700th game.  The Bears are the only other team with 700 or more wins.
• Aaron Rodgers became the first quarterback in NFL history with a passer rating of 110 or higher in each of the first seven games of a season.

And now, the concerns.  It is tough to get too worked up about problems on a 7-0 team, but there are some. Not really on offense, and not to any significant extent on special teams.  On offense, the Packers continue to play lights-out football.  I don't think you can play any better than Aaron Rodgers is playing, the receivers are doing a good job this year of catching the ball, and the running game is much more productive than it was for most of last year.  The Packers ground out the last minutes of the Vikings game with a couple of rushing first downs, for heavens' sake.  That didn't happen for the Packers very much in recent years.  Despite some injuries on the offensive line, the line is providing pretty good protection for Rodgers.

On special teams, I no longer have to hold my breath every time there is a kicking play.  The kick coverage team has given up a couple of long returns, but they don't seem to me to have the raging inconsistency of the last couple of years.  Randall Cobb has run back one kick for a touchdown, and every time he touches the ball on a kicking play, he has the potential to do something big.  He may not be at the level of a Devin Hester or Desmond Howard, but he is a vast improvement over the returners we have had in recent years.

Which brings us to the defense.  The Packers are giving up too many points, way too many yards, and are allowing teams to stay close enough to make things scary at the end of games.  The game against Minnesota was a perfect example.  At times in the third quarter, I thought the Packers would end up winning the game by 20 or more points.  But instead of destroying the Vikings when they were down, the Packers let the Vikings creep back into the game.  Watch games of the Patriots from a few years ago, or even watch the Saints against the Colts in week 7, and you will see teams that have the killer instinct.  The Packers don't seem to have that going for them right now, and they didn't really have it last year, either, even though the defense seemed better last year.  Just take the playoff games.  Of the four games, only the Falcons game had a relaxing finish.  In the Eagles, Bears and Steelers' games, the opposition had a shot to win the game in the final minutes.

So what is the problem?  Is it the loss of Cullen Jenkins to the Eagles?  The loss of Nick Collins to injury?  Another year of wear and tear on Charles Woodson?  The defensive players are admiring their Super Bowl rings when they should be getting ready for the next week's game?  I think all of these things (except for the last one) contribute to the problem, but I suspect that the biggest problem is that the defense has just not gelled this year, what with the changes that have taken place.  A week off may have provided a little respite from the daily grind for the players, and given a little extra time for Dom Capers to work on some new wrinkles.  I do think more aggressiveness on defense, and a little less "bend but don't break" philosophy would pay dividends.  It is also worth noting that we had a bit of the same problem last year.  The Packers had 5 wins in the regular season last year by 18 points or more.  One of those games was in the first half of the season, and the other four were in the second half.  So maybe we will see the Packers' defense play better in the second half this year, too.

Since the bye week fell almost in the middle of the Packers' schedule, the second half of the season effectively starts on Sunday, at San Diego.  Living here in California, we considered driving down to San Diego for the game, but ultimately decided against it.  I have bad memories from the last Packer game I went to at San Diego (yes, that game), but scheduling had more to do with it than bad memories.  The Chargers are expecting the biggest crowd of the season on Sunday, and Scott Crevier, of the South End Zone web site, reported on his way to the game that there were lots of Packer fans in the Orange County airport, three days before the game.  So it seems safe to assume that the Packers will find San Diego almost to be a home away from home.

Eight of the last nine games of the season are against teams with winning records at this point (Minnesota is the sole exception).  So the last half of the season is not going to be easy, and I am pretty sure that the Packers will lose a game or two along the way.  I doubt that this week will be one of those losses.  The Chargers are just not playing up to my expectations of them.  Last Monday night, they lost a close game to the Chiefs in overtime, but they looked terrible in the process, and Philip Rivers, in particular, just looked out of sync.  They will have to play a much better game on Sunday if they expect to beat the rested Packers.

Turning Points

The turning point in the season last year was the Monday Night game at Carolina. The Packers lost, 31-14, and looked bad in doing so. Their record sank to 5-7, and although they didn't know it at the time, losing that game ended up knocking them out of the playoffs. It was a turning point, because the Packers ended up finishing up the season with four straight wins, all against division opponents, just barely missing the playoffs but raising hopes for a better season this year.

Three weeks into this season, the Packers are now on a seven game winning streak in the regular season, the longest active winning streak in the league. The turning point in this week's game at Carolina is easy to identify. It was early in the second quarter, with the Panthers leading 7-0. Brett Favre's pass had been intercepted, and the Panthers had a chance to add to their lead. Weinke threw what looked like a touchdown pass to Muhsin Muhammad, which would have made the score 14-0. But there was a flag, on our old ex-central division foe, Todd Steussie, and the touchdown did not count. The Panthers did not score on the drive, or for the rest of the game. And the Packers scored 28 unanswered points to easily win their third game of the season.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers and Vikings were still playing in Minnesota. What a dilemma for a Packer fan. Do we hope for the Buccaneers to win, thereby driving a stake through the heart of the Vampires (oops, I meant Vikings), even though this would leave the Buccaneers at 2-0? Or do we root for the Vikings to pull it out, giving the Buccaneers a loss, but keeping the Vikings closer to the Packers? Well, the Vikings of course did pull it out, which is probably the better result for the Packers and their fans, but I simply could not bring myself to root for the Vikings.

So, after three weeks, there are only three undefeated teams in the league, the Packers, the Rams, and the surprising San Diego Chargers. A great way for the Packers to start the season, and it gives the Packers a little bit of a cushion to play with as they head into the scariest three-week stretch of the season. The next three games are at Tampa, Baltimore (at Lambeau Field) and at Minnesota. Before the season, I frankly would have thought there was a good chance that the Packers would lose all three of these games. But now, all three of these teams look at least somewhat beatable,plus the Packers look much stronger than I expected them to look. So my expectations are higher. I think winning two out of these three games is a realistic goal, and if the Packers achieve that, they will be in great shape.

What is Wrong With The Packers?

I suffered through the Denver game, and could not comprehend how the team could be so flat and inept for a game that meant so much to the fans. Why didn't the players play like it?

Then I enjoyed the San Diego game, deluding myself into thinking that the Packers had turned the corner, and would be just fine from here on out.

Then the Monday night disaster [Ed.note - the Packers played the Seahawks, and lost 27-7.] . The Packers played their worst game since, . . . , well, since two weeks before. A disaster in some ways akin to last year's disaster on Monday night against the Vikings. The players had to care about this one, just as a matter of pride, didn't they? Then how could they play like this?

I have talked with others, read some of the post-game comments, read articles online, mostly just listening, trying to make up my own mind about this. None of the people I have talked to or heard from have suggested that the Packers are playing at the level of their talent. Yes, injuries have hurt them, but not this much. They have much more talent than they have shown in two of their last three games.

Some have suggested that the coaching staff is to blame. The "country club atmosphere" has returned, and the team does not have enough discipline (the Earl Dotson debacle fits right in with this theory). The play-calling has been questioned. Why, for example, did the Packers not run more in the second half, before it got too late to recover? Dorsey Levens was gaining big chunks of yards, and the running game would have taken some pressure off of the ineffective Favre?

Others have suggested that the real problem is that Favre's hand is bothering him more than people realize. Certainly one of the fumbles could be attributed to inability to get a proper grip on the ball. I'm not surenif the interceptions could be attributed to the thumb problem, but maybe. The thing that is a bit ominous about the thumb theory is that I remember Favre having made a comment before the San Diego game, suggesting that the warm weather would make it easier to play with his injured thumb. And, maybe not coincidentally, the San Diego game was the Packers' best game of the year. Monday night in Green Bay, it was cold and blustery, and Favre had his worst (or second worst) game of the year. The ominous part is that there are only a couple of truly warm weather games left on the schedule (at Dallas, at Tampa, and at Minnesota if you count a dome game as a warm weather game). So if the thumb is the problem, we could be in for a very long year.

I come out thinking that the thumb is the main problem. The defense has looked alright. I certainly can't blame the defense for giving up 20 points (not counting the 7 points on the blocked field goal), when the offense turned the ball over 7 times. The offense was horrible, but mostly just because of the turnovers. If you could somehow cut the turnovers out of the game, it would have been a very different game. I just have a feeling that the thumb is getting worse, that it acts up more in cold weather, and that Favre is going to have this problem all year long.

Having said that, I am starting to agree with those who criticize the coaching staff, as well. It is becoming apparent that Sherman Lewis is not as good an offensive coordinator as Mike Holmgren was. I think that the Packers have been out-coached in several of the games this year. That was not usually the case with Holmgren. On the lack of discipline, certainly Dotson's outburst was inexcusable. I felt that it single-handedly eliminated any chance the Packers had of coming back to win that game. And to the extent that Favre is doing erratic things like throwing into double coverage instead of being smarter about his decision-making, maybe that is indicative of a lack of discipline as well. I'm going to try to pay more attention to the coaching decisions as the game progresses, and see if I can get a better sense of this question in the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, it is Bear week. This game does not have the luster it had a few years back, but the Bears almost always play the Packers tough. I'm looking for a relatively low-scoring game, with a defensive touchdown for the Packers and more of a ball control game on offense. Packers, 21-13.