How Good Are the Packers?

In happier times, when the score was 0-0

So which loss was worse, the 26-11 loss to the Chargers 4 weeks ago in Los Angeles, or the 37-8 loss to the 49ers last week?  At one level, the loss to the (at the time) 3-5 Chargers might seem more out of character than the loss to the 9-1 49ers.  Both losses were the result of total domination by the opposing teams, and pathetic performances by the Packers on both sides of the ball (and you can throw poor special teams into the mix, too, with an ineffective punting game joining an ineffective return game).  While you can say that there is no shame in losing to the team with the best record in the NFC, there is plenty of shame in losing the way the Packers did. 

While the defense kept the Packers in the 49er game for awhile, it once again gave up huge plays down the middle of the field, none more damaging than the long touchdown to phenomenal 49er tight end George Kittle, which essentially ended any hope for a comeback.  And the offense again could generate no rhythm at all, with Rodgers constantly under duress.  Why didn't the Packers load up on quick release passes designed to offset the pass rush?  Why didn't they throw the ball to Aaron Jones and see what he could do?  I have no clue, and you can't figure out the answer by listening to Matt LaFleur's press conferences, either.  I guess I really should not expect much enlightenment from press conferences, and I am glad that LaFleur takes responsibility and says that he was outcoached, but if you want to know what he will do differently to avoid another such embarrassment, you will  have to figure that out for yourself. 

We went to the 49er game, and there were plenty of Packer fans there with us.  But the Packer fans never really got a chance to cheer after the warmups, because on the very first drive, the 49ers strip-sacked Rodgers, leading to a quick touchdown, and it was all downhill from there.  We had plenty of time to listen to that stupid foghorn they play when the 49ers score, and to be thankful that the Packers ditched the idea for a foghorn of their own.

Maybe the Packers aren't as good as we thought they were?  Getting blown out, by one bad and one good team, does not happen to most good teams.  Just for kicks, I took a look at all the top teams in the NFC and AFC, to see how they lost their games.  So the Packers lost a fairly close one to the Eagles, and lost convincingly and pathetically to the Chargers and 49ers.  I arbitrarily used 14 points as the definition of a blowout.  Sure enough, most really good teams do not get blown out.  They lose like the 49ers did (27-24 to Seattle).  Or like the Chiefs, losing by 7 points or less to the Colts, Texans, Packers and Titans. 

In fairness, some of the really good teams did get blown out once.  The Patriots lost to the Ravens by 17.  The Bills lost to the Eagles by 18.  The Seahawks lost to the Ravens by 14.  But among the teams with the best records, only the Packers and Saints lost 2 games by blowout.  The Saints lost to the Rams by 18, and lost to the Falcons the first time around by 17.  The fact that Brees got knocked out in the Rams game might be a mitigating factor, although the Saints are much more set at backup quarterback than the Packers have been in a very long time.  But anyway, as a general rule, the very good teams do not get blown out twice by this point in the season, and this is not a good sign for the Packers.

Beyond the blowouts, some of the Packers' wins are a little suspect when you look back at them.  The Packers beat the Bears only on the strength of the defense playing out of their minds.  The Packers barely beat the Lions, and maybe shouldn't have, given some of the calls.  And the Panthers took the game to the very last play of the game, which play even had to be reviewed, before the win was secured.  The Bears, Lions, and Panthers aren't really all that good, so these wins could be cause for concern if you want to look at it that way.

This Sunday, the Packers visit another team that is not very good, the New York Football Giants (as a friend used to call them).  They are 2-9, haven't won since September, and by my 14 point definition they have been blown out in 5 of their 9 losses.  They have beaten only the equally bad Redskins, and the very inconsistent Buccaneers.  So there really isn't any good reason why the Packers should not beat the Giants convincingly, especially given the sting and embarrassment of the 49ers game last week.  If they struggle against the Giants, even if they end up winning, it will really be time to question how the Packers can make any noise in the playoffs.

Despite the bad football we watched Sunday night, I had a great Thanksgiving with family yesterday.  I hope you did as well.

Terrible Performance Snaps Packers' Winning Streak

Cousins Enjoying the Ambiance, Before the Carnage Started

Well, we figured out a way to watch the game from overseas.  Maybe it would have been better if we didn't, so that our only exposure to the game was through the box score.  Losing to the Chargers (previously 3-5) by the score of 26-11 would look bad enough in the box score, but it would not have conveyed how terrible the Packers looked in all phases of the game.  Teams have off days, but can you have a day this far off without starting to wonder if the team is as good as you thought it was?

The Packers could not block Jake Kumerow's big cousin, Joey Bosa (and, as someone mentioned, they have the other Bosa cousin to deal with in San Francisco after the bye week).  On defense, the "bend don't break" thing kept the Packers in the game until the second half, since they forced field goals on the Chargers first four scoring drives.  But two second half touchdowns by the Chargers, as the defense ran out of gas, put the game out of reach.  And the special teams gave up the blocked punt that ended up really sealing the deal.

To his credit, Matt LaFleur acknowledged that the Packers were out coached and out prepared by the Chargers.  That might be the diplomatic thing to say, but in this case, it has the additional advantage of being true.  The Packers finally figured out a plan that worked on offense in the fourth quarter.  It was a hurry up offense with short, quick-release passes, and it resulted in the Packers' only touchdown.  That was too little and way too late.  Maybe they should have tried that in the first half to get a rhythm going. 

Rodgers talked about focus and the team not being "locked in" after the game.  There seemed to be a suggestion that maybe arriving a day early contributed to that lack of focus, although LaFleur claimed on Monday that nobody missed curfew before the game.  But I think it is a safe bet that the team will come out on Saturday, rather than on Friday, for the San Francisco game in a few weeks.

On Sunday, the 5-3 Panthers come to Green Bay.  On paper, the Panthers are a better team than the Chargers, and they certainly have one of the league's top rushers in Christian McCaffrey.  The Packers have given up a lot of rushing yards this season, so McCaffrey can obviously pose problems.  If the Packers are not as bad as they looked on Sunday, and if the Chargers' game was a bit of an anomaly, they should come back with a vengeance and win this game.  But if they lose this game, to take a two game losing streak into the bye, it may really be time to reevaluate how good this team is.