Packing for the Playoffs

It has been apparent for a few weeks that the Packers would eventually make the playoffs, but it is still welcome news to hear the talking heads use the word "clinched" in connection with the Packers. After all of those years in the 1970's and 1980's when the Packers didn't make the playoffs, you would think that not making the playoffs in 1999 and 2000 would not be so hard to
take. Packer fans should be used to it, after all! But having been spoiled by the Favre-Holmgren run throughout most of the 1990's, it really was difficult for many of us fans. It is so much more fun when the Packers keep playing after the end of the regular season. And now, the Packers are back in the playoffs where they belong.

Unfortunately, the Bears squandered another excellent opportunity to lose a game, this time to the Redskins, and at this point, I am starting to get the idea that they are not going to do us a favor by losing a game. The Bears play at Detroit, and against Jacksonville in Chicago, and they will be substantial favorites to win both games. So I am now getting prepared for the fact that the Packers will not win the division.

If the Packers end up as a wild card, then the issue becomes whether they will be the number 5 seed (and play at the number 4 seed, most likely the 49ers, in the first week of the playoffs), or whether they will be the number 4 seed and thus host a playoff game. I figured that the 49ers might have trouble against the Eagles, especially with Jeff Garcia being injured, but of course they did not. The 49ers have games left at Dallas (which the 49ers should win) and at New Orleans, where it will be more of a toss-up. If the 49ers stumble in one of these games, their likely reward is a trip to Lambeau Field.

Remember the last 49er playoff game in Lambeau Field? Freezing rain in this "mud bowl" game, Steve Young's cracked ribs, Desmond Howard returning one punt for a touchdown, and another punt to the 7 yard line. The Packers won the game, 35-14, and it is a safe bet that the 49ers don't want to make another trip to Green Bay in January, so there is no chance that they will
let down in the last 2 games. They could lose a game, but if they do it won't be as a result of a letdown. All this adds up to the likelihood that the Packers will have to come out to my backyard (San Francisco) for the playoffs. Which makes it a lot more convenient for me to go to the game,
but I sure wish the game would be in Lambeau Field.

Yesterday's game was the kind of day that I have been waiting for since early November, a cold day, with snow flurries at Lambeau Field throughout the game. Favre was sharp, as he always is in the cold, throwing three touchdown passes and no interceptions. But it was really the ground gamethat took control against the Browns. Ahman Green just rolled over the Browns for 150 yards, until he left late in the game after an asthma attack. He was replaced by Dorsey Levens, who continued just where Green left off, gaining another 72 yards rushing, and came up with a picture perfect catch and slide in the snowy end zone to finish out the scoring. It was a play
that was somewhat reminiscent for me of Levens' touchdown catch in the NFC Championship game after the 1996 season.

The defense played an opportunistic game, forcing three interceptions and two fumbles, including an interception return for a touchdown by Tyrone Williams, which also provided an echo of the interception by Williams in that same NFC Championship game. On the negative side, the Packers gave up an awful lot of yards rushing to Jamel White (who?), which is either just a
reflection of the fact that the rushing game has an advantage on a slippery, snowy field, or else it is a continuation of the Packers' habit of making backup players look like one-game hall-of-famers.

And now the Vikings come to town, for another cold and maybe snowy game. The forecast as of Monday is for snow showers and a high of 24 degrees. Of course these are the same Vikings who blew the Packers out of the Metrodome back in November, so they cannot be taken lightly. But the Packers are motivated to get revenge on the Vikings, the Vikings are not a cold weather, natural grass team, the Vikings have not won on the road all year, and the Vikings seem to have checked out for the season several weeks ago. I don't think this game will be close. I'll pick the Packers by a score of something like 31-10.

Monday Night 49er Game

As is almost always true, the Packer - 49er game this year is a big one. Not because these two teams are fighting it out for home field advantage in the playoffs. The 49ers are all done, and the Packers are one or two losses away from being in the same boat. But as long as there is a chance for the Packers, every game will be huge, as they fight to keep their playoff possibilities alive.

This game will be an interesting one, because it will tell us whether the newly-healthy right thumb is going to carry the Packers anywhere, or whether last week's victory against the Lions was just a fluke. This 49er team is absolutely awful, and if the Packers can't beat them now, you can forget about the playoffs in any event. The 49ers are at 3-7, with a 6 game losing streak going for them, and things have gotten so bad that the local media is not spending much time actually talking about Monday night's game. They know that the 49er season is over, whether the 49ers effectively end the Packers' season as well or not.

As this season has progressed, I have noticed that the 49er fans are dealing with their adversity better than the Packer fans. On the Packer mailing list, the teeth-gnashing and hand-wringing is enough to keep you awake all night long. The 49er fans are dealing with even more adversity, but they seem to be managing pretty well.

I think there are two reasons for this. First, the 49er fan base is the classic example of a fan base that is a mile wide and 2 inches deep. When I moved to the San Francisco area in 1980, they weren't even selling out the games. Then along came 1981, and all of a sudden everyone was on the Niner bandwagon. But now that the dynasty seems finally to have ended, they will move on and find something else to worry about. In other words, the majority of 49er fans just don't care about the team the way that most Packer fans do.

The other thing, of course, is that the circumstances are very different for the two teams. Favre has been injured all year, but presumably he will be healthy next year. Chmura will be back, Ron Wolf will draft some more people to fill more holes. Ray Rhodes may or may not be back, but as long as this team has Brett Favre, they will be a contender for a long time. In the case of the 49ers, there is no particular reason to hope for the future.

In all likelihood, Steve Young will never suit up again, and there is no heir apparent. Jerry Rice is all through as an impact player, and this will probably be his last year. And the salary cap, long deferred, has finally caught up with the 49ers. They had to cut something like $28 million in salaries this year just to meet the cap, and they have to cut something like another $18 million next year. So the 49er fans know that while they have had a long, unbelievable run, this time it is finally over.

That will be obvious Monday night, as the Packers roll to a 31-10 victory. By the end of the game, the only sound from the stands will be the sound of Packer fans (myself included) yelling GO PACK GO!

49er Game/Mid-Year Review

The Packers ended the first half of the season on Sunday with a big bang, beating the 49ers by the score of 36-22. Ironically, I was not home in the SF area for the game. I had to travel to the Eastern Time Zone for a Monday meeting. Normally I would have flown Sunday afternoon, but that would have required me to miss the entire game. So I flew on an early Sunday morning flight, which was scheduled to arrive 22 minutes before kickoff. To make a long story short, I ended up missing most of the first quarter, but got to watch the rest of the game.

As we all know, things got pretty hairy in the third quarter, as the 49ers erased an initial 16-0 deficit and ultimately went ahead, 22-19. Meantime, Favre started throwing interceptions and incompletions all over the place. I was really concerned that this game was going the wrong way. Unlike most of the Packer-49er games, this time the 49ers had recovered from the hole the Packers had put them in.

And then, if you will excuse the Maddenism, BOOM! The game was over in what seemed like 5 minutes. Another beautiful bomb of a TD pass to my very distant cousin Antonio ;-), and best of all, the defense swarming over Steve Young like a pack of starving dogs. And just like that, the game was over.

Because I was out of town, I of course missed all of the immediate post-game flavor from the local news and sports talk shows. But now that I am back, I am devouring the Monday and Tuesday newspapers, and catching as much sports radio as I can. There seems to be an air of acceptance now, that the 49ers just can NOT seem to beat the Packers. Yes, there is some spin doctoring going on. Steve [I-hope-he-is-not-our-coach-next-year] Mariucci now says that both Marquez Pope and Merton Hanks were hurting, and that he hopes they will be healthy if the 49ers meet the Packers again. And there are a lot of fingers being pointed at J.J. Stokes for dropping what could have been a touchdown pass, and then for pushing around a couple of reporters in the locker room after the game. But basically, this time I think they finally get it.

As a final note on the 49ers, they are clearly every bit as obsessed with the Packers now as the Packers used to be with the Cowboys. Mariucci has reportedly instructed that no one on the team is to speak about, or even think about, the Packer game after midnight last night (Monday).

So where do the Packers stand at mid-year? Their record is 6-2, which is not too bad considering that I thought they would be 5-3, on their way to an 11-5 record, before the season started. The Packers have played better than I had feared they might, after how they performed during the pre-season. But they have some major holes and question marks:

The absence of a running game is a big problem, although there have been some signs of life in the last two games.

The defensive backs have gotten burned badly in a couple of games, but have played effectively in other games.

This Favre 2-3 interceptions per game stuff has got to stop. The Packers cannot continue to dodge that bullet from game to game.

The 49er victory, coupled with the Vikings' loss, certainly improves the prospects for a favorable playoff spot. Has the Vikings' traditional second half collapse started a little early this year? It will be interesting to see. The problem, I am afraid to say, is probably STILL the 49ers. Even if the Packers do catch the Vikings for the division, I don't know that they will be able to stay even with the 49ers. The Packers will lose a couple more games, but the 49ers, in their division, may not. This could lead to another NFC Championship game in San Francisco.

The Packers are about to start a 3 game road trip, with each of the 3 games on the dreaded artificial turf. The Packers only play two more games against teams with a current winning record, and they play them both in the next 3 weeks (Pittsburgh and Minnesota). Two out of three on the road trip would be a great result, three out of three almost too much to dream about. Travis Jervey's skills (speed) are ideally suited to astroturf, and he even prefers the stuff. This would be an excellent time for Jervey to have a few good games.

The Packers are now 6-2. They should be able to win their last 4 games (although the game at Tampa is far from a "gimme"). I'd say they are on their way to a 12-4 or maybe even a 13-3 season.

Quarterly Review - No Cause For Panic In Packerland

There has been a fair amount of grumbling among Packer fans in the first quarter of the 1997 season. "The Packers were in some danger of losing each game this year!" "They haven't looked dominating in any game, except for the second quarter of the Vikings game!" "They lost to the Eagles and didn't even score a TD!" "The rash of injuries has robbed the Packers of all of their depth!" Etc., etc. etc.

But let's stop for a second and take a closer look. One quarter of the regular season is over, and the Packers are 3-1. Last year, they dominated in the first 3 games, but then lost at Minnesota, and had the same 3-1 record. Many of us (myself included) overreacted to the situation. I know that I felt that the Packers would never be able to catch the Vikings, given tie-breakers. What an overreaction that was, as the Packers won the division by 4 games, with the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. And, in a sense, the Packers are better off this year, since their loss is outside of the division.

By contrast, take a look at the 49ers. They have started to dominate their opponents, and to all appearances, they seem to have overcome the loss of Jerry Rice, and seem to be taking better care of Steve Young. But hold on a minute! The teams they have beaten are the Rams, the Saints and the Falcons, three of the most pathetic teams in the league. They lost to Tampa Bay, but as we are beginning to appreciate, that is no great shame given the way the Buccaneers are playing. Let's wait until the 49ers have a couple of games against quality opponents before concluding that they are back in the driver's seat.

All in all, I feel pretty good about the Packers' season. I think they will only get better, as some of the injured players return to the lineup, and as some of the reserves pressed into action get more experience. Last year, the injury plague induced a two game losing streak against Kansas City and Dallas. This year, the Packers have come through an injury plagued first quarter with a 3-1 record. Not too bad. I see (conservatively) at least an 11-5 record for the Packers this year.