Ugly Win Keeps Packers at Number One with Two Weeks to Go

Rodgers, Looking As Shocked as the Fans Were By What He Saw

 In the lead up to Saturday night's Panthers game, I read lots of stuff to the effect that the Panthers have made lesser quarterbacks look like Aaron Rodgers, and that the Panthers don't have much pass of a pass rush, or great defensive backs.  The consensus was that the Packers would feast on the Panthers' defense.  Never mind that the Panthers have almost made an art form of losing games where they had a chance to tie or win the game at the end of the fourth quarter.

And a feast is just what it looked like for the first three Packers' drives, after which the score was Packers, 21-3.  It was all fun and games, and when Rodgers ran the ball in for the second touchdown, even an opposing Panther player seemed like he was enjoying the "I love gold!" celebration put on by Rodgers and the other Packers.  (See photo below.)

And then the lull started, earlier than usual, and this time mostly on the offensive side of the ball.  In the late second and third quarter, the Packers had 5 straight possessions ending in punts (mostly 3 and outs), while the Panthers clawed and scratched their way back into the game.  By the time the Panthers' fourth down pass fell incomplete with 13 seconds left, the Packers should have felt lucky to escape with a 24-16 win.  

I thought something was missing from the offense on Saturday night, apart from a lack of energy and execution after going up 21-3: the jet sweep motion.  This has been an effective technique all year long to show Rodgers how the defense reacts to the motion.  But if the Packers ran any jet sweep motion plays at all, I don't remember them.  Why not?  Tyler Ervin may be out, but presumably one of the reasons the Packers signed Tavon Austin was to run this motion.  I don't understand it, and hope to see it again on Sunday night.

By the way, the Packers also beat the Panthers at Lambeau Field last year.  Oddly enough, it was by an identical score (24-16), in identical weather (low 30's at kickoff).  Last year's game also came down to the final drive by the Panthers, where the game came down to a stop of Christian McCaffrey at the one yard line on the final play to preserve the win.  This is sounding like a bad habit for the Packers, except, as mentioned, the Panthers have had a bunch of games that they have lost this year despite having the chance to tie or win the game late in the fourth quarter.  So maybe the Panthers are one of those snake-bit teams that are better than their record reflects?

The good news is that the Packers are 11-3, and still in the driver's seat for the number one seed.  But the bad news is, as Rodgers said on the field after the game, that the disappointing way the second half played out left a bad taste in his mouth.  Or as someone on Facebook said, "Another win that feels like a loss."  I wasn't happy either, but I am going to argue that the situation is not as bad as it felt immediately after the game.

If this was a "bad win" for the Packers, they weren't alone in getting a bad win this week.  The Seahawks, at 10-4 and also fighting for a chance at the number one seed and a bye in the playoffs, barely hung on for a 20-15 win against the Washington Redskins Football Team.  Washington, depending on how you count it, was arguably down to their 3rd string quarterback.  Washington drove into Seattle territory on their final drive, but alas, ending up turning over the ball on downs.  The Buccaneers, now 9-5 and fighting to catch the Saints for the NFC South division crown, had to come roaring back from a 17-0 deficit against the 4-10 Falcons, before finally pulling ahead in the 4th quarter for a 31-27 win.  Is that an ugly win, too?  Or does the comeback aspect of the game make it feel better to Buccaneers fans?  The Cardinals, fighting for their playoff lives, had to hold off the not-very-good Eagles for a victory, with the Eagles taking several incomplete shots at tying the game in the final seconds.

Speaking of ugly wins, how about ugly losses?  The Rams, 9-5 and fighting to win their division, lost to the previously winless Jets, 23-20.  They got behind and could not catch up, losing the game, despite starting their final drive in Jets territory thanks to a big punt return.  And of course the Saints lost to the Chiefs, 32-29, with the Chiefs running out the clock to put the game away without giving the Saints one last chance to win it.  Maybe this wasn't an ugly loss, because of the quality of the defending champion Chiefs, but it counts the same in the record book.  

To sum it all up, of the 7 NFC teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs, there were 3 losses this week (Saints, Washington, Rams) and 4 wins, all of which were ugly in some ways (Packers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals).  I tend to focus only on my own team most of the time, rejoicing some times, and despairing other times.  Stepping outside the NFC for a minute, if you are unhappy with the "quality" of the Packers' 4 game winning streak, imagine if you were a Steelers fan.  Their 11-0 start is coming crashing down all around them with a 3 game losing streak, including losses to the not-so-great Washington team, and the really bad Bengals team Monday night.  It is worth having a little perspective here, that winning an NFL game isn't ever easy, and most if not all of the other teams go through the same sorts of problems.  I take some comfort in the fact that the defense again played better on Saturday night, especially in the secondary.  They also again held the opposing running backs to manageable yardage, and they forced a game-changing turnover at the goal line when Krys Barnes knocked the ball out of the outstretched hands of Teddy Bridgewater as he attempted to dive over the line for a touchdown.

Anyway, it is now clear that the Packers can secure the number one seed in a number of ways.  The easiest is to beat the Bears in Week 17, in which case it becomes irrelevant whether they win or lose against the Titans on Sunday night, and it is also irrelevant what any other team does in the final two weeks.  Unfortunately, the Packers can't know for sure this week that they will beat the Bears next week.  So they need to play their starters, play hard, and beat the Titans.  Now, it should be noted that if the Rams beat the Seahawks earlier on Sunday, then a Packers win against the Titans will secure the number one seed for the Packers Sunday night.  

I have an uncomfortable feeling about this game.  I suspect that the Seahawks will beat the Rams, resulting in a letdown for the Packers, who might then be a little too focused on the fact that "all" they need to do is beat the Bears the following week, and thus not play well against the Titans.  Derrick Henry can almost single-handedly win a game.  I am hoping the Packers will get it done, but I could easily see the Packers dropping this game.

Another Breed of Cat Coming to Town Saturday Night

Adams TD, Photo by Leon Halip, AP

The Packers' win against the Lions on Sunday (31-24) was a momentous one, because it clinched a playoff spot for the Packers, as well as the NFC North division title.  It also moved the Packers into the number one seed in the NFC, because of the Saints having been upset by the Eagles.  The Packers are now in the driver's seat, since they control their own destiny.  

Maybe you don't remember those years where the Packers had to play their last game and then wait to see if the Vikings, or the Rams, or whoever, would lose to let the Packers sneak into the playoffs.  I do remember them.  So I savor the fact that the Packers have clinched the division with three weeks to go.  It is worth noting that the toughest game left on the schedule for either the Packers or the Saints is this week's Kansas City at New Orleans game.  Assuming that the Chiefs win (as they are favored to do), this would give the Packers a little cushion in case they stumble in one of their final three games.  

Meanwhile, there were more milestones on Sunday.  Davante Adams became the first player ever to have 90+ catches, over 1100 yards, and 14 TDs over the first 13 games of the season.  Which sounds great enough just as it is.  And then you stop to realize that he only played in 11 games.  And for Rodgers, his milestone of the day is that he is the first player ever to have 39+ TDs, and fewer than 5 interceptions, after 13 weeks of a season.  I know, these records being set are a little funky - 14 TDs?  39 TDs?  13 games?  These are not nice round numbers.  But still, it says something about the monster year these two stars are having.

The first half was not all that satisfying, being that the Packers went into halftime tied at 14.  Time of possession was almost even, and the Lions had more passing yards than the Packers did in the half.  But the third quarter was dominated by the Packers.  They possessed the ball for over 13 and a half minutes, allowing only a 3 and out to the Lions.  The Packers scored once in the third quarter, and again early in the fourth quarter, to make it 28-14.  At that point, the game was under control.  

Except it wasn't, really.  Remember that fourth quarter slump problem we have discussed in prior blog posts?  I had it in mind, and was concerned that the Lions would claw their way back into the game.  Our Lions' fan friend, Al, threw out a prediction that the Lions could score a touchdown on the ensuing drive if there were 5 penalties on the Packers.  Sure enough, that is exactly what happened, as the Lions drove 75 yards on 13 plays, with 5 penalties on the Packers.  Well, the Packers did manage to keep it together enough to win the game, but not until they endured a scary onside kick, that had to be reviewed to confirm that the ball was out of bounds before it was recovered by the Lions.  I tend to see this as another special teams issue.  The onside kick almost played out like the one in a Dallas game earlier this year, where the receiving team (the Falcons) just watched the ball until it had gone 10 yards and was then recovered by the Cowboys.  Apparently it may be illegal for the receiving team to intentionally bat or kick the ball out of bounds.  But as the ball gets to 8 or 9 yards downfield, the receiving team can no longer afford to just watch it spin and hope for the best.  They have to pick it up, or better yet, dive towards it and "inadvertently" push it out of bounds.

Fresh off the victory over the Lions, another ferocious feline team comes to Lambeau Field Saturday night.  The 4-9 Panthers now come to Green Bay for a game that means a lot more to the 10-3 Packers, because of their quest to retain the only NFC bye in the playoffs.  I was very concerned about this game a few weeks ago, because I assumed that Christian McCaffrey would be back and would run all over the Packers.  But now it looks like McCaffrey won't play, and besides, as I have been saying for a couple of weeks, I think the Packers defense is looking better despite their custom of taking some time off in the middle of the fourth quarter.  Mike Davis can still do some damage, but he is not the difference-maker that McCaffrey is.  The Packers just need to take care of business, come out without any injuries, and with any luck they will find themselves a full game ahead of the Saints (plus the tiebreaker) after the Chiefs get done with the Saints.

Terrible Performance Snaps Packers' Winning Streak

Cousins Enjoying the Ambiance, Before the Carnage Started

Well, we figured out a way to watch the game from overseas.  Maybe it would have been better if we didn't, so that our only exposure to the game was through the box score.  Losing to the Chargers (previously 3-5) by the score of 26-11 would look bad enough in the box score, but it would not have conveyed how terrible the Packers looked in all phases of the game.  Teams have off days, but can you have a day this far off without starting to wonder if the team is as good as you thought it was?

The Packers could not block Jake Kumerow's big cousin, Joey Bosa (and, as someone mentioned, they have the other Bosa cousin to deal with in San Francisco after the bye week).  On defense, the "bend don't break" thing kept the Packers in the game until the second half, since they forced field goals on the Chargers first four scoring drives.  But two second half touchdowns by the Chargers, as the defense ran out of gas, put the game out of reach.  And the special teams gave up the blocked punt that ended up really sealing the deal.

To his credit, Matt LaFleur acknowledged that the Packers were out coached and out prepared by the Chargers.  That might be the diplomatic thing to say, but in this case, it has the additional advantage of being true.  The Packers finally figured out a plan that worked on offense in the fourth quarter.  It was a hurry up offense with short, quick-release passes, and it resulted in the Packers' only touchdown.  That was too little and way too late.  Maybe they should have tried that in the first half to get a rhythm going. 

Rodgers talked about focus and the team not being "locked in" after the game.  There seemed to be a suggestion that maybe arriving a day early contributed to that lack of focus, although LaFleur claimed on Monday that nobody missed curfew before the game.  But I think it is a safe bet that the team will come out on Saturday, rather than on Friday, for the San Francisco game in a few weeks.

On Sunday, the 5-3 Panthers come to Green Bay.  On paper, the Panthers are a better team than the Chargers, and they certainly have one of the league's top rushers in Christian McCaffrey.  The Packers have given up a lot of rushing yards this season, so McCaffrey can obviously pose problems.  If the Packers are not as bad as they looked on Sunday, and if the Chargers' game was a bit of an anomaly, they should come back with a vengeance and win this game.  But if they lose this game, to take a two game losing streak into the bye, it may really be time to reevaluate how good this team is.

Disappointing End to the Season

Allison Fumbles, photo by Jim Matthews, USA Today

Well, as Aaron Rodgers himself suggested, this was not exactly the fairytale ending we were all hoping for.  Rodgers returns, and far from "running the table" again this year, he looks off in his return gig, throwing 3 interceptions to match his 3 touchdown passes, and the comeback fizzles when, despite recovering the onside kick while trailing by 7 points, Geronimo Allison fumbles away the ball in Panthers territory and the Panthers win, 31-24.  And if that wasn't just grinchy enough for you, the Falcons won on Monday night, knocking the Packers out of the playoffs, Rodgers was shut down for the season by going back on IR, and Davante Adams has been ruled out of the Saturday night home game against the Vikings.  Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah, indeed!

I was (quite uncharacteristically) on an international flight during this game.  I think that last happened in 1995, on the night Favre threw a 99 yard TD to Robert Brooks at Soldier Field.  On this past Sunday, I was doing my best to follow the game by WiFi, until we got into US airspace and could pick up Fox and the NFL Network on the seatback TVs.  So while I was following the game, I saw none of it until days after the fact, when I finally had a chance to watch the recording.  The watching of the game was of course skewed by the fact that I knew the outcome.  I also knew that Rodgers and the defense had not played well, so I was, in effect, just waiting for the wheels to start to come off as I watched.

There was a glimmer that Rodgers was off even on the very first drive.  While his first pass of the game was on the money to Adams, his second and third passes were off the mark, to Nelson and Cobb respectively.  He settled down somewhat, and looked rusty but serviceable for the rest of the first half.  His biggest mistake of the half was the interception on a ball he was trying to throw away, but he threw it short (an omen of interceptions to come), in the field of play.  Meanwhile, the defense looked passable in the first half, giving up only 10 points.  The gashing, particularly by Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen, was just beginning at the time.  With the Packers leading 14-10 at halftime, I imagine that it would have been possible, if watching the game live, to picture the Packers pulling off the upset.

So it was with a sense of foreboding that I watched the second half.  It didn't take long.  Newton and McCaffrey gashed them most of the way down the field on the first drive, and when the Packers blitzed and hit Newton, he was able to uncork a 30 yard TD pass to Greg Olsen.  Two plays later, Rodgers was intercepted on another underthrown ball, and Davante Adams was knocked out of the game on an extremely cheap shot.  After the disputed "ass cheek" touchdown, Rodgers was again intercepted, again on an underthrown ball, three plays later.

In following the game via WiFi, and reading the stats after the fact, I was shocked by how the Packers had abandoned the running game in the second half.  In watching the game, it was a little more clear why, as the Panthers seemed to be stacking the box on most plays to stop the run.  Normally, that would give Rodgers the chance to carve them up, but this was not the Rodgers we are familiar with.  So the Panthers' gamble paid off.

Anyway, it was a disappointing way for the season to come to a virtual end, while the actual end was confirmed on Monday night.  It seems inevitable that changes must come after a season like this, and I think they are justified.  The defense has not played up to its potential for years, and if the defense had played just a little better in every game, one or two of those losses could have been turned into wins.

The Saturday night, final home game of the season against the Vikings now seems a bit anticlimactic.  Rodgers would certainly have wanted to get back at the Vikings for ruining the Packers' season.  But it is hard to see how the depleted Packers can get that done.  I read somewhere that Case Keenum has never played a game in freezing temperatures, so there is that.  Without Davante Adams, maybe Hundley will finally be able to connect with Jordy Nelson, or will be able to improve his connection with Randall Cobb.  Poor Cobb, he has never had a January in his career where the Packers were not in the playoffs.  So maybe he can still make an impact in December, by helping to knock off the Vikings.

Time for the Packers to Stop the Slide

Press-Gazette Cover, 11-9-15

I had just about finished this post on Friday, when the news of the terrorist attacks in Paris started hitting the screen.  All of a sudden, a two-game Packers losing streak didn't seem like such a big deal after all, and I decided to wait a day before posting this.  Prayers for the victims and survivors, comfort to the families, and may France and the west be "impitoyable à l’égard des barbares de Daesh" (ruthless against the ISIS barbarians).  Having gotten that off my chest, back to football.

*    *    *    *

Cam Newton rips down and destroys an expensive Packer fan banner in the stadium (and the fan reports him to the police, and the Panthers later agree to replace the banner).  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Julius Peppers yelling at each other on the sidelines, with B.J. Raji and Mike Pennel doing some pushing and shoving to try to break it up. Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers arguing with each other on the sidelines.  Rodgers, upon seeing that he had missed a wide open Cobb on the decisive play of the game, throwing his tablet to the ground (and apparently destroying it in the process).  Packer fans are in full panic mode after the Packers lose 2 games in a row for the first time since 2010, this one by the score of 37-29 to the still-undefeated Carolina Panthers.  Then later this week, Eddie Lacy gets demoted to RB number 2.  All is not well in Titletown, that is for sure.

Will a visit by the Lions make everything OK?  Well, it will take more than a win against the Lions to make everything OK with the Packers.  But the Lions have not won in the state of Wisconsin since 1991.  This sets up a sort of a football Rorschach test.  Glass-half-full types would say, the Packers are not about to lose to the Lions in Green Bay, particularly not this year's Lions team, which is in disarray at 1-7.  While glass-half-empty types would say that the Lions are due after all those years.  Or, here is another Rorschach test.  The Packers' 6 wins have come against 6 teams, none of which currently have a winning record (the best among them are the Seahawks and Rams at 4-4).  While the Packers' two losses have come against teams that were undefeated at the time of the games.  Does that make you feel better or worse about the 2015 Packers?

Put me in the glass-half-full group.  I expect the Packers to beat the Lions, but I have to be honest in saying that nothing would shock me after the last two games.  And it is good not to forget that the Lions were 11-5 last year and only lost to the Cowboys in the playoffs on a controversial play.  So it is not as if they are as bad a team as their 1-7 record would suggest.

As for the Packers, everybody knows that there is something wrong with Eddie Lacy and with the receivers.  Eddie Lacy is some combination of too fat/too out of shape/too injured.  I love Lacy, but it is probably a good thing for right now that Starks is going to be the starter.  Starks has looked much better than Lacy for several games in a row.

The problem with the receivers is a little different.  The receivers who are starting are not very fast, and the receivers who are fast are not playing much and don't seem to have the trust factor with Rodgers or the coaching staff.  I do think that this will improve over time as some of the players continue to get healthier after their injuries (Cobb, Adams, Montgomery) and as the faster players gain more trust (Janis, Abbrederis).

But what about Aaron Rodgers?  My wife Judy has been saying for weeks that there is something wrong with him.  I did not think so at first, but I am coming around to her point of view.  He frequently seems jumpy in the pocket.  He seems to hesitate in pulling the trigger on passes (I saw this several times in the Carolina game - instances where he had open receivers available to him).  Why?  Is that a conscious decision by Rodgers, because he is looking for a longer pass, or the play call by the coaches?  Even when he does pull the trigger, he is frequently just a little off target, more so than we are used to.  It would be a violation of league injury policies for Rodgers to be injured and for the Packers not to report it.  So let's not assume that that is the case.  But if it is not, then what is the answer?  Could it be that he is taking too many hits and sacks, and getting inadequate protection from the offensive line, and that this has affected his psyche?  Perhaps, but that would not be a good answer.

Beyond this, the coaching staff continues to under-perform.  Once again, I saw insufficient offensive plays designed to take the pressure off of Rodgers (screen passes, draw plays, roll-outs, slants and other quick release passes).  They were a little better on this against the Panthers than against the Broncos, but I want to see more protective and creative play calls against the Lions.

And the defense, which a few weeks ago looked like one of the best in the league, now looks like one of the worst.  They have not had a single sack in the last two games, and they have given up 1,475 yards over the last three games.  I have never been a member of the "fire Dom Capers" club, but I might be getting closer to it if things don't improve.  They need to be more aggressive.  They need to get after Matthew Stafford.  He is not likely to look like Cam Newton when under pressure.

The next four games, all against division opponents, will in effect decide how the 2015 season will go.  To borrow from Kevin Greene in Super Bowl XLV, "it is time."

Bouncing Back Against the Panthers

Packers Arrive in Charlotte, Photo by Duke Bobber, Packers.com

In the first of two consecutive road games for the Packers against undefeated opponents, the Packers crashed and burned last Sunday night at Denver, losing 29-10.  Among many other problems for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers could not find anyone open downfield, took many hits and sacks, and scored a career low of 77 yards passing.  But stop and think, how many times on Sunday night did the Packers run plays on offense that were designed to take the pressure off of Rodgers?  I am talking about screen passes, draw plays, quick release passes, play action passes, outlet passes to a running back?  I re-watched the game, and the answer is, not nearly enough.  Part of the Packers' problem on Sunday night was that their game plan was, in some ways, too aggressive, involving too many long-developing offensive plays.  But they couldn't get away with them against a defense as good as that of the Broncos, so eventually Rodgers had to throw the ball away, and/or get hit in the process.

At that point, two additional problems kicked in.  The first has been a "problem," off and on, since Rodgers has been the starting quarterback.  Rodgers is cautious, occasionally to a fault.  He doesn't like to take reckless chances.  When he had Jordy Nelson available, he had the trust he needed to throw a ball up and count on Nelson to make a play.  I am calling it a "problem" here, but it is also his greatest strength.  Unlike his predecessor, who we all remember had a tendency to make a huge mistake at the wrong time, Rodgers is much more careful about throwing the ball up for grabs.  But when the Packers fall into a 17-0 hole against the number 1 defense, as they did Sunday night, something has to change and, I am arguing, you have to take some chances and give the receivers the opportunity to make a play, even if you don't have the same degree of trust in them that you have in Jordy Nelson.

Speaking of things needing to change, the second problem was (to my eye, anyway) the lack of in-game adjustments.  Mike McCarthy and Dom Capers have both frequently been criticized for not making enough in-game adjustments.   Some of us hoped that relinquishing the play-calling duties might free Mike McCarthy up to concentrate more on broad strategy issues during the game, rather than having to focus on calling each individual play.  But there was no evidence of that on Sunday night.  Either McCarthy is too stubborn to try to adjust his game plan during the game, or if he was adjusting the game plan, then either Tom Clements, in play-calling, or Aaron Rodgers, in calling audibles, was undermining the adjusted game plan.  

Obviously, if the Packers had to lose their first game, it is just as well that they would lose to an AFC opponent, since that loss has no playoff implications.  But now they travel to Charlotte to face the undefeated Panthers, knowing that a loss there will put the Packers two games behind the Panthers, plus a tie-breaker, in the race for home-field advantage.  So this is the game that really counts.  The Panthers, meanwhile, had an interesting game of their own this past week.  They were beating the Colts so badly that I actually turned off the game to do other things.  I then noticed that the Colts had closed to within 3 points with less than a minute to go.  They tied it up, went into overtime, exchanged a pair of field goals, and then Luck was intercepted on a tipped ball, resulting in the winning field goal for the Panthers.

The Panthers are probably playing better than the Packers have over the last few weeks, but the Packers have a more talented team.  If they play up to their talent level, the Packers should win this game easily.  But it is hard, as a fan, to have a lot of confidence in the Packers right now.  They have won 6 out of 7 games, sure, but they have looked at least somewhat bad in each of the last 4 games.  The Packers have something to prove, to me and to the rest of their fan base.  Let them show that they can bounce back after a tough road loss (they do have a pretty good record of doing this).  Let them show that they can make in-game adjustments when things are not going their way.  Let them show that they can insert some plays, when necessary, to take some pressure off Rodgers.  And let them show that they can stick to a balanced offense even when they have some trouble making it work.  Go ahead, show us.

Geaux Pack Geaux!

I got kind of busy and did not post anything last week,  So it is time now to reflect on how the Packers, who were once a very disappointing 1-2, are now 5-2 and in relatively good shape.  "If the playoffs started today - the Packers would be the number 6 seed."  True, but awfully premature at this stage.  The Bears and Vikings seem well on their respective ways to self-destruction.  If only somebody could drop a couple of extra losses on the Lions, the Packers might really be primed for a trip to the playoffs.  Maybe the Lions, who are playing at 6:30 am Sunday morning (California time) can give us a good, early start to the weekend.

But first, a word or two about the Dolphins and Panthers games.  The Dolphins game started out with a very crisp Packers drive for a touchdown.  It looked like it might be an easy victory despite the heat and humidity.  But of course that is not what happened.  The Packers' defense played very well, with interceptions by Hayward and Shields, but the Packers' offense sputtered for the rest of the first half, which ended with the Packers only up by the score of 10-3.  I hate 7 point halftime leads, because one big play and the game is tied.  Sure enough, in the second half, the Dolphins scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives, with the Packers' defense looking really gassed on the second and third drives.  This put the Dolphins up, 24-17, in the fourth quarter.

Watching the game a second time, it is amazing how many plays and decisions that turned out to be game-saving were made.  Crosby's TD-saving tackle on a kickoff return before the Dolphins' first possession of the game.  The Packers' defense stopping Miami cold on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line.  With 4:13 left in the game, and with the Packers having 4th and 6 from the Dolphins' 12 yard line, McCarthy took the field goal and counted on the defense to get the ball back.  That looked like the wrong call to me at the time, given how tired the Packers' defense looked in the second half, but it worked out and the Packers' got the ball back with 2:04 left.  That final drive had plenty of drama.  Micah Hyde started it with a 17 yard return to the 40 yard line.  Then Starks gained 12 yards on the only play the Packers could really afford to try a running play (because of the 2 minute warning).  Then TJ Lang fell on the ball after it was stripped from Rodgers' hands, leaving the Packers with a 4th and 10, which they converted on a pass to Nelson.  And then, of course, with Dan Marino in the stadium, Rodgers pulled off the famous fake-spike pass to Davante Adams.  The rookie played like a seasoned veteran on that play, not only figuring out or realizing what Rodgers was up to, but making an excellent move to get more yards, and then ensuring that he would get out of bounds to stop the clock.  It wasn't just that play, either, as Adams played well for the entire game.  Finally, the game-winning TD to Quarless.

If any one of those plays and decisions had gone the other way, the Dolphins would have won the game.  Indeed, The Dolphins game was the sort of game that the Packers would have lost most of the time in recent history.  The elements were against them, and after giving up the lead, it would have been easy for exhausted players to accept the defeat and fold.  Hey, you can't win them all, after all.  But instead, they got a stop on defense when they needed it most, and they pulled off a highly improbable touchdown drive to win the game.  That win counts for a lot in my book.

The Panthers game was completely different - a dominant performance on both sides of the ball,  The Packers scored 21 points in the first 13 minutes of the game, and did not allow a single first down to the Panthers in that time.  It was one of those games where both starting quarterbacks sat out significant chunks of the fourth quarter, the Packers because the game was well in hand, and the Panthers because there was no hope and no reason to risk injury to Cam Newton.

With one more game before the bye week, it would be a huge advantage to come out of the Super Dome with another win, a 6-2 record, a 5 game winning streak, and no worse than a tie for the lead in the NFC North.  On paper, you would think that the Packers should win this game.  They are definitely on a bit of a hot streak, while the Saints are a disappointing 2-4.  Prior to the season, I counted this game as a loss for the Packers, but that was at a point when I assumed the Saints would be playing better than they have been.  But the Saints are a good team, better than their record, they have won 13 home night games in a row, they have won both of their home games this season, and they are pretty desperate for a win to stay in contention.  Beyond that, 3 of their 4 losses have been close (3 points or less).  Only the Cowboys blew them out, 38-17.  For all those reasons, I have to predict a Packers' loss tomorrow night.

Déjà Vu

(Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Photo)

In the words of the immortal Yogi Berra (my favorite baseball player as a kid), "It's déjà vu all over again." Just like last year, the Packers are 2-0 after two weeks, leading into their week three matchup at Chicago. True, last year the Bears were also 2-0, and by beating the Packers they took control of the division, kept it almost all year, and ended up as the NFC North Champ for 2010, sending the Packers on the road in the playoffs. This year, if the Packers can beat the Bears at Chicago, they would put the Bears two games plus a tie-breaker behind them. That would be a nice result.

(There is another little problem down the road for the Packers - the Lions are also 2-0, looking every bit as good as we expected they might be this year. But since the Packers don't play them until Thanksgiving, there will be plenty of time to talk about the Lions later.)

As for the Bears, I admit that they surprised me in Week 1 by beating the Falcons, and beating them solidly. Sure, you can say that the Falcons have a problem on defense, as the Packers illustrated in the playoffs last year. And you can certainly criticize the Falcons for trading as many draft picks as they did for wide receiver Julio Jones, rather than addressing their defensive problems. But it is quite another thing for them to be picked apart by Jay Cutler, who may very well deserve more credit than I usually give him. Speaking of Cutler, as I was driving around late last night, I heard an ESPN Radio guy make the observation that the Bears need to do something about their offensive line, “or they are going to get Jay Cutler killed back there.” He added, “maybe that is the plan.” I paid just enough attention to the Bears game Sunday to realize that, despite getting sacked repeatedly, Cutler and the Bears’ offense made enough good plays to keep it close into the third quarter, but this time the Saints pulled away.

Against the Panthers, the Packers’ offense looked good, after getting into a 13-0 hole in the first few possessions. A fumbled kickoff return by rookie Randall Cobb contributed to the problem, but even without that the Panthers had a TD drive and another field goal drive to create the 13-0 lead. Rodgers was pretty close to flawless in parts of the second half, the running game was reasonably productive, and I really like the change-up in running styles created by playing both Ryan Grant and James Starks. Jennings, Nelson, and Finley did most of the damage in the passing game (which presumably means James Jones will continue to be irritated at the paucity of passes in his direction). Driver only caught one pass, but it was the pass that gave him the record in pass receiving yardage as a Packer, surpassing James Lofton. (He wrote a very gracious letter of thanks to the Packer fans, as noted here.) He may be nearing the end of the road, but he continues to be a contributor. For the second week in a row, he was the “hands” team guy to go up high and grab the onside kick in the closing minutes of the game.

The Packers’ defense is beginning to look like it could be a problem. Mike Neal missed the game on the defensive line, and is likely to miss a “significant” number of weeks with his injury. The Packers made what seemed at the time to be a good decision by also making Tramon Williams inactive, giving him an extra week to heal up. After all, they were playing a rookie QB, what could possibly go wrong?

When it became apparent that last week’s game was not a fluke, and that Cam Newton is the real deal, the absence of Williams became more problematic. And when Nick Collins was taken off the field strapped to a plank after a scary looking injury, things got even more troublesome. We just learned this afternoon that Collins is out for the season, which is terrible news, but I am thankful that he was well enough to return to Green Bay and attend the team meeting to tell his teammates the bad news.

So here we go - Packers and Bears in Week 3, just like last year, with injuries becoming problems for the Packers, and with a lot on the line.  Déjà vu.

Playoff Berth Clinched

I had the great fun of attending Sunday's game against Seattle, with my son, Ben. The Packers absolutely spanked their opponents, by the score of 48-10. Simultaneously, the New York Giants were losing to the Panthers, something I did not expect after the Giants' domination of the Redskins the previous Monday night. The effect of these two events was that the Packers clinched a wild card spot in the playoffs, thus avoiding the dreaded final week drama about whether the Packers make the playoffs. And finally, on Monday night, the Bears (of all teams!) beat the Vikings, in what sounds like it was a great game. This makes Brett Favre's record 0-7 in road games below 40 degrees since 2005. Now that is what you call a great week of football!

We were flying back from Chicago to San Francisco on Monday night. If the flight had left on time, we could have listened to the end of the game on the radio, driving home from the airport. But because the flight was 2.5 hours late (due to unspecified "security issues"), we missed it all. We got exactly 2 updates from the pilot during the game (remember, this was a flight from Chicago, so you might think there was some interest). He came on to tell us that the score was tied, 30-30, with 16 seconds to go in the 4th quarter. No sense of the drama that led up to that, but he did add that the dispatcher had said that the Bears had multiple opportunities to put the game away but, quoting the dispatcher, "naturally, they didn't." He came back on later to announce that the Bears had won, 36-30, in overtime. The reaction to both announcements was the same: stone cold silence. I guess nobody flying from Chicago cares? I suppose I can understand that in a way, given the Bears' season, but still, I expected some reaction. It certainly differed from the reaction on the Chicago to San Francisco flight during the playoffs two years ago, when the announcement that the Cowboys had lost to the Giants was greeted with cheers.

A couple of notes from the game, things that you probably did not see if you watched the game on TV. First, Milwaukee native and American Idol finalist Danny Gokey sang the national anthem, and did a fine job of it (see video here). And at the end of the game, since it was (barring a miracle) the last game at Lambeau Field this year, Charles Woodson and Donald Driver did victory laps around the perimeter of the field, high-fiving all the fans in the bottom rows of the stadium.

The Packers now travel to Arizona for the final regular-season game, with there being at least a 2/3 chance that they play Arizona again the following week in the playoffs. That makes for weird incentives for both teams. Both teams would surely want to play well and win the game, to increase their own confidence that they can do it again the following week. But neither team wants to show all its cards this week, lest they tip off the opponent as to how they intend to play the game that really counts. With the Packers having won 6 of the last 7 games, and barely lost the 7th game, they have to feel pretty good about themselves about now. Peter King, of Sports Illustrated, says that he wouldn't want to play the Packers right now.

At the same time, the Cardinals have played well in most of their games this season. They have the same record as the Packers (10-5), but in the NFC West, that is easily enough to win the division. Although I don't follow their games very closely, they have seemed less impressive in recent weeks, during which time they lost twice, and didn't look that great in some of the wins. Their quarterback, Kurt Warner, is only a little younger than Brett Favre, and at times he looks pretty old out there. But there is no doubt that he can pick apart a defense if given the time to throw. So the Packers would be well advised to bring some pressure on defense.

Another issue for the Packers this week is whether, and if so to what extent, to rest starters. The Packers are a wild card team no matter what, and are highly likely to be the number 5 seed. They could drop to the number 6 seed if the Packers lose and the Cowboys win, but the only real difference between no. 5 and no. 6 is that no. 5 has a very slim chance of hosting the NFC Championship game, while no. 6 has absolutely no chance. So one could take the view that there is not much at stake here. If this team had been performing at a high level of precision for weeks, maybe you could argue that the Packers should rest starters. But they haven't. The Packers took awhile to get into a rhythm against the Seahawks. The Packers' defense gave up ridiculous yardage and point totals to the Steelers. The Packers trailed the Bears in the fourth quarter. The Packers started a bit sluggishly against the Ravens. To me it seems clear that the Packers still have lots of things to work on. So I come out very strongly on the side of playing the starters, playing the game to win, and resting the starters only if the game is well in hand toward the end of the game.

Keeping some of the game plan in reserve for the following week is quite another question. That makes a lot of sense. So I would see no problem in playing a plain vanilla game plan, on offense and defense, but playing hard to win the game. Save the trick plays, the new offensive and defensive wrinkles for the playoffs. But if the Packers bench a lot of starters at the start of the game, or start resting players in the second quarter, that to me would show a foolish degree of over-confidence in how ready the Packers are for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, congratulations to Charles Woodson, Nick Collins and Aaron Rodgers for being selected to the Pro Bowl squad.

I'm a Believer

SAN FRANCISCO, CA — Remember the old Neil Diamond song, originally performed by The Monkees, "I'm a Believer?" Yes, I know, I am dating myself, and lots of readers are probably saying "You mean the song by Smash Mouth and Eddie Murphy in Shrek?" The truth is, I didn't realize it was written by Neil Diamond until I looked it up, but in my mind, it is definitely a Monkees song. Anyway, I am getting to be a believer in the Green Bay Packers. It was only a few weeks ago that I called them the worst 5-1 team in the league. But since my last column, they finished off their road trip by winning at Kansas City, even if the game was closer than the score, and then they absolutely whacked the Minnesota Vikings, 34-0.

Now everybody knows that a game can get out of hand, and that the Packers are not 34 points better than the Vikings. But that was a pretty dominating win, on both sides of the ball, from the start to the finish. When the Packers control the ball for 41 minutes, when they become the first team all year to run for over 100 yards against the Vikings, and when Favre completes passes to 10 different receivers, you know they must be doing something right. And to see the Packers being aggressive well into the 4th quarter, in fact throwing the final touchdown pass with 6 minutes left in the game, is gratifying after watching them let the game slip away against the Bears in week 5.

So now is when things get interesting. The Packers are heavy favorites over the Panthers, raising the specter of a possible "trap" game for the Packers, what with huge games against the Lions and the Cowboys coming up in the next 11 days. Even though Brad Hoover is still with the Panthers, and is evidently the starting fullback, I still think the Packers will be OK. The novelty factor of the game is that there are 82 years' worth of starting quarterbacks on the field, what with Vinny Testaverde starting for the injured David Carr. When Favre was asked why Vinny would come back to play at his age, Favre said "must be the love of the game, or he's broke, one of the two." And for Favre, this is one of the rare instances in recent years when he is not the oldest starting quarterback in the game.

It seems like a lot to ask for the Packers to win today against Carolina, and then to complete another 2-game road sweep against the Lions and the Cowboys. If I had to guess, I would guess that they will lose one of those games (probably, unfortunately, against the Cowboys). But, as the cliché goes, they just have to play them one game at a time.

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After mentioning in my last column that my recording of the Monday night Denver game got messed up, three readers volunteered to send me a copy. Wisconsin reader Tim Shea was the first to volunteer, followed quickly by another Wisconsin reader, John Daley, and, get this, a reader in Brazil, Bruno Siqueira. Bruno is not a transplant from Wisconsin, in fact he has never been to the U.S., but he is still a Packers fan. Que homem! Vão Os Packers! Anyway, I took Tim up on his offer to send a DVD, since he was first, but I want to thank Tim, John, and Bruno for their prompt and generous offers.

Off to a Good Start

I literally had no idea what to expect from the Packers Monday night. The last couple of years, I have gotten into the bad habit of not following football in the off-season. It was particularly true this year. I didn't follow off-season transactions, didn't watch any of the draft, didn't read hardly any football news in the paper or on the internet. I suppose I could blame it on the bad taste left in my mouth by the ending of the Eagles' playoff game, but I don't really think that was the cause of it.

Anyway, then the pre-season arrived. I knew that I would only get to watch one Packer game, the nationally televised game against the Seahawks, since the NFL Sunday Ticket package does not carry pre-season games. So I set the VCR to tape the game, but I messed something up, and the game didn't tape, so I didn't even get to watch that game. Instead, I just had to go with the box scores and articles about the pre-season games. Oh, I know, it is a mistake to put too much emphasis on pre-season games, but that was all I had to go on, and it didn't look too promising. The fact that the Packers were playing the defending NFC Champions did not serve to increase my confidence level, either. I figured it would be a pretty good way to get a sense of whether this Packer team is in a position to be a contender this year.

If that was what I was looking for, I got exactly what I wanted and needed. The Packers looked good, despite losing Grady Jackson after only a few plays, and despite (obviously) playing without Mike McKenzie. When Jake Delhomme threw his first pass right at Michael Hawthorne, McKenzie's replacement, completing the pass for about 20 yards, I was concerned that Hawthorne might be the Packers' Achilles Heel. But after that play, I was quite impressed with the defensive backs, and in general with the new high-pressure defensive approach by new defensive coordinator Bob Slowik. Now, it is true that the Panthers didn't look very good, but they still are the defending NFC Champs, so it is hard to dismiss them as a mediocre team.

I am still getting used to the Packers relying so heavily on the running game. Throughout most of the Favre era, they have relied so heavily on Favre's arm, with all the pluses and minuses that come with that kind of reliance. It is such a delight to watch them march up and down the field, pretty much relying on the running game. As long as this offensive line stays healthy, we can probably count on a lot more of that power running.

Week Two is almost too early to have the Bears visit the Packers at historic Lambert Field (oops, make that Lambeau Field, I guess I am watching too many campaign speeches). I'm not really ready for a Bears' game just yet. Judging by the parts of the Bears game I saw on Sunday, though, the good news is that the Bears might not be ready for the Packers, either. I'm sure that our neighbors in the Land of Lincoln were not too happy about the debut of their new coach, since the Bears managed to provide the Lions with their first road victory in several years. I remember when Lovie Smith was hired, and the emphasis that was put on his mission being to go out and beat the Packers. I have nothing against the guy, as he seems like a nice-enough person. It will take me awhile to build up any real animosity for him. But I would sure like to see him sitting at 0-2 after two games. The Packers have enough tough games coming up later this year (one of them the week against the Bears game). They need to make sure they don't falter in one of those games, like this one, that they should win easily.

3-1 Underachievers

Two more weeks under the Packers' belts, and there is good news and bad news. The good news is that the Packers are now 3-1, in sole possession of first place in the NFC North, and tied for the best record in the NFC. The bad news is that the Packers have given their fans almost no reason to think that they can continue to win 75 percent of their games.

They came close to losing to the Lions in Detroit, in a game very reminiscent of last year's Thanksgiving Day affair. And then the Packers barely survived the invasion of the Panthers, with a missed chip shot field goal being the only thing that saved the Packers from overtime. On the plus side, the defense actually looked quite a bit better against the Panthers, despite the fact that they continue to give up big plays at the most maddening moments. And given the slew of people on both offense and defense who were on the injury list, maybe surviving a scare for a 17-14 win isn't so bad. None of us who saw it will soon forget Mike Sherman's temper tantrum on the sideline after the officials originally ruled Bubba Franks' touchdown pass an illegal forward pass. Whether the purpose of the tantrum was to stall until the replay official upstairs had time to call for a replay, or whether he was trying to fire up the team, or whether he just plain lost it, it was a sight to behold.

And now it is Packer-Bear week. It has been said many times, but it really is true that this is the greatest rivalry in the NFL, maybe in all of professional sports. It has everything you could want in a rivalry. Over 80 years of history, big city vs. small town, a genuine historical dislike between the teams and the fans. Halas vs. Lambeau and Lombardi, Nitschke vs. Butkus, and I could go on and on. Both teams have been hit hard by injuries early this season, so a big part of the game may be which team has been able to adjust better to the personnel changes. I would be more worried about this game, given how the Packers have been playing, it I had not seen the Bears blow a 20 point lead in week 3 to lose to the Saints, and then lose again in week 4 to the Bills. So the Packers have a decent shot at this game.

The key to the Packers season, as things appear right now, is for them to keep winning most of the close games until they get healthier, and until the defense gets to the point where it is playing more consistently. Last week was a real improvement for the defense, and this week would be an excellent time to keep that momentum moving in the right direction. I can't wait for Monday night.

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This week's column is dedicated to the man who took me to my very first Packer game, 40 years ago this week. That man was my Dad, who died peacefully last week at age 90, unfortunately a few days before we arrived for a visit. Continuing the generational tradition, my wife, kids and I stayed in town and went to the Packer game on Sunday. Thank goodness the Packers kept up their end of the bargain by winning the game. Oh, by the way, that first Packer game I went to, 40 years ago, was also a Packer-Bear game. Packers 49, Bears 0, September 30, 1962.

Turning Points

The turning point in the season last year was the Monday Night game at Carolina. The Packers lost, 31-14, and looked bad in doing so. Their record sank to 5-7, and although they didn't know it at the time, losing that game ended up knocking them out of the playoffs. It was a turning point, because the Packers ended up finishing up the season with four straight wins, all against division opponents, just barely missing the playoffs but raising hopes for a better season this year.

Three weeks into this season, the Packers are now on a seven game winning streak in the regular season, the longest active winning streak in the league. The turning point in this week's game at Carolina is easy to identify. It was early in the second quarter, with the Panthers leading 7-0. Brett Favre's pass had been intercepted, and the Panthers had a chance to add to their lead. Weinke threw what looked like a touchdown pass to Muhsin Muhammad, which would have made the score 14-0. But there was a flag, on our old ex-central division foe, Todd Steussie, and the touchdown did not count. The Panthers did not score on the drive, or for the rest of the game. And the Packers scored 28 unanswered points to easily win their third game of the season.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers and Vikings were still playing in Minnesota. What a dilemma for a Packer fan. Do we hope for the Buccaneers to win, thereby driving a stake through the heart of the Vampires (oops, I meant Vikings), even though this would leave the Buccaneers at 2-0? Or do we root for the Vikings to pull it out, giving the Buccaneers a loss, but keeping the Vikings closer to the Packers? Well, the Vikings of course did pull it out, which is probably the better result for the Packers and their fans, but I simply could not bring myself to root for the Vikings.

So, after three weeks, there are only three undefeated teams in the league, the Packers, the Rams, and the surprising San Diego Chargers. A great way for the Packers to start the season, and it gives the Packers a little bit of a cushion to play with as they head into the scariest three-week stretch of the season. The next three games are at Tampa, Baltimore (at Lambeau Field) and at Minnesota. Before the season, I frankly would have thought there was a good chance that the Packers would lose all three of these games. But now, all three of these teams look at least somewhat beatable,plus the Packers look much stronger than I expected them to look. So my expectations are higher. I think winning two out of these three games is a realistic goal, and if the Packers achieve that, they will be in great shape.

Still Alive?

My last column was written after the discouraging loss to Detroit, when the Packers were 2-4 and going nowhere. Five weeks later, they are 5-6, and most likely still going nowhere. But there are some signs of life in the last few weeks. They barely beat San Francisco, but then they should have beaten Miami but let the game get away in the second half. Then they beat Minnesota on the "improbable bobble" play in overtime. Then they lost at Tampa Bay, although they certainly had their chances, even with Favre gone for most of the second half. And this week they hung on to beat the Colts in the snow flurries.

Considering that the Dolphins, the Vikings, the Colts, and probably the Buccaneers are playoff teams, to go 3-2 the last 5 weeks is not bad. If I had guessed the results after the Lions game, in the mood I was in at the time, I would have predicted 1-4 over that stretch. What do the next five weeks hold for the Packers? Only two home games (Detroit and Tampa Bay), with a third road game in "Packer weather" at Chicago, and two other games at Carolina and at Minnesota. It will take another three wins to get to 8-8, and it will take 4-1 or 5-0 to make the playoffs.

The Packers could win this coming Monday at Carolina, they could win at Chicago, they might beat Detroit at Lambeau Field, and history tells us that they probably will beat the Buccaneers in the cold on December 24. It will take something just as improbable as the bobble for the Packers to win at Minnesota, however, and my guess is that they will also lose another game somewhere along the way. That would put them at 8-8, same as last year, and home for the playoffs for the second year in a row. Then we will be able to debate about whether the 8-8 this year is more encouraging than last year's 8-8, and whether Mike Sherman should meet the same fate as Ray Rhodes.

But all of that is a few weeks away. For now, they are still alive. We should take some encouragement from the fact that the Packers have beaten two of the best teams in the league in the last 3 weeks, and hope that they can continue to improve as the season winds down.

1998 Packer First Quarter Review

The last two weeks' wins bring us to the one-quarter mark of the season. Where do the Packers stand? And what about the competition?

The good news is that the Packers are 4-0, tied for first place in the NFC Central with the Minnesota Vikings. These first four weeks of the season have been quite reassuring to me, after a mediocre pre-season. I thought that the Packers would lose at least one, maybe two of the first four games. Compared to that kind of pessimism, 4-0 looks pretty good.

The bad news is that the Packers have not looked like world beaters in any of the four games. In the first three games, it was the defense that really carried the load, looking similar to the dominating defense of the 1996 Super Bowl season. The offense, by comparison, looked sluggish, although there were some pretty good reasons for that. Robert Brooks was only available part time due to his back problems, and Dorsey Levens was, at first, rusty, and then injured. The last game is a puzzler to me. The Packer defense gave up 30 points to the Panthers? Who'd have thunk it? And after giving up 30 points, the Packer offense won the game anyway? Despite three interceptions and two fourth down turnovers? Who'd have thunk that? It was delightful to see the Packer offense start to click, to the tune of 5 TD passes from Favre in the Panther game, but what are we to make of the turnovers?

Personally, I'm not going to dwell on the negatives from this game. Turnovers happen. Maybe the familiarity Gil Haskell (Panthers' offensive coordinator) has with the Packers' offense helped the Panthers design a defensive game plan that put them in a position to make the interceptions. Maybe the heat on the field just sapped the Packer defenders more so than the Panther offensive players. Despite those negatives, the Packers won the game. This high-scoring game was in some ways reminiscent of the Colts game last year, but this year the Packers won the game. So let's turn the page and go on.

Now, let's take a look at the competition. The main Midwestern competition is, of course, the Vikings, who are also 4-0. I watched parts of their game on Sunday, and I was not too impressed. They almost lost to the Bears, and didn't look too good in the process. Next week's Packers-Vikings game will be a really big deal, but on Monday night? At Lambeau Field? I say the Packers will win the game.

At 0-4, the Bears are dead, although they look just good enough to win a few games here and there and cause some problems. Let's hope they don't pull off a win against the Packers. If the Lions lose Monday night, as I expect, they will be dead, too (in fact, they are probably dead even if they win). The much-hyped Buccaneers? If they win Monday, they will be 2-2, which will make it a little early to write them off. Still, my basic attitude about the Buccaneers is the same as someone who wrote in to Sports Illustrated, after SI picked the Buccaneers to go to the Super Bowl. This reader said something to the effect that "if the Buccaneers go to the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback, I'll eat my cheesehead."

NFL Rules dictate that someone must win the NFC East, but right now it is not clear that there are any real candidates to do so. Which brings us to my neck of the woods, the NFC West. Both the 49ers and the Saints are 3-0, but I strongly suspect that there is no real competition between the two. The 49ers look like they are on a roll, such that they will end up with a record anywhere between 12-4 and 15-1. I almost said 16-0, but that would mean that they beat the Packers on November 1, which I believe (hope? pray?) that they will not.

The next quarter of the season will be pivotal. The Packers play the Vikings at Lambeau, followed by Detroit on the road, and then home games against Baltimore and San Francisco. If the Packers can win the next four, they will be well on their way to a very special season. Right now, to be perfectly honest, they don't look consistently sharp enough to win the next four in a row. They need to put the pieces together in a more complete fashion, and they need to do it in a hurry. Let's hope that they do.

Packers on December Roll!

At the beginning of the season, the late-November to mid-December part of the season looked rather daunting for the Packers.

November 23, Cowboys at home. True, the game would be at Lambeau at last. But the Cowboys had won 7 in a row against the Packers - maybe they just had the Packers' number.

And then comes a three game road trip. Not again!

December 1, at Minnesota. The dome jinx. True, the Packers have to win one sometime, but something weird always seems to happen.

December 7, at Tampa Bay. At least it is on grass, but weren't the Bucs much improved at the end of 1996? And didn't the Bucs beat the Packers here in December a couple of years ago?

December 14, at Carolina. Omigosh, the NFC Championship game rematch, in their stadium.

Back at the beginning of the season, this looked like a stretch where the Packers could easily go 2-2, even though I hoped for better.

Now fast forward to the aftermath of the Colts debacle on November 16. Deep down, didn't you feel that the Packers could lose 2 or maybe 3 of these 4 games if they continued to play like they did in that game? I did.

What a difference 3 weeks and three W's make. The Packers now seem to be on the best roll they have been on since last December-January. They have exorcised two demons, won the division for the third year in a row, and have clinched a bye week for the playoffs. They ought to win the next two games and cruise into the playoffs with another 13-3 record. As a matter of fact, an objective observer might just conclude that the Packers have put it all together at exactly the right time.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look as if 13-3 will be good enough for home-field advantage. I think the 49ers will lose Monday night to Denver, but I think they are good enough to beat a fading Seahawks team the following week. And if they do, they get the home field advantage for the NFC Championship game ASSUMING that they get past their first opponent on the weekend of January 3-4. They probably will, but I don't take that as a given with the 49ers.

Here in San Francisco, the fan sentiment seems to be that the 49ers have very little chance against the Packers if they have to play them in Green Bay. I agree with that. If the game is in San Francisco, the consensus is that the 49ers have a much better chance, but just beneath the surface I detect the belief that the Packers are probably a better team. I think they are right about that, too.

We'll know soon enough. The Championship games are less than a month away, and at this point it sure looks like the NFC opponents will be the Packers and the 49ers. In the AFC, my guess would be Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Could we be heading for a rematch of Super Bowl I? That would be an interesting matchup.

Championship Game Report

Several of my friends have asked me what it was like to be at the game Sunday. As a football game, this was not one of the best of all time. Even though the Packers were only up by 7 points
at the half, it seemed clear that they would have to really mess things up to lose the game. I overheard one guy on his cellular phone during halftime, explaining that "The game is over! They can't move the ball at all, and the Packers are rolling." I wasn't quite as confident as he was, but let's face it - he was right. The way they were moving the ball vs. the Panthers, and the way the Panthers were being bottled up by the defense, it probably would have taken a series of 2d half turnovers to give the Panthers much chance.

So while this game had the excitement and pageantry of a really big game, it didn't have the tension of a really close game, such as the instant replay game of 1989, which I attended, or the OT victory in October over the 49ers, which I did not. But any lack of tension was made up by the pure emotional joy of realizing, somewhere in the middle of the 4th quarter, that the dream was really going to come true. The signs started coming out, the chants of Su-Per-Bowl started. Many people, myself included, had tears in their eyes, as the players jumped in and greeted the fans in the stands after the game, and then during the entire trophy ceremony. That is what I will always remember about this game, more so than any of the individual plays or performances.