Packers Start Their Playoff Run Tomorrow!

 

Photo by Benny Sieu, USA Today Sports

It has been a few weeks since I last wrote a blog post, and there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then (or should I say, a lot of ice on the frozen pond)?

The Packers completed a five game winning streak by blowing out Minnesota in the cold, they locked up the number one seed in the playoffs, and thus secured a very welcome week off before starting what we hope is a playoff run to and through the Super Bowl in Los Angeles.  During the five game winning streak, the Packers had an impressive win against the Rams, a solid win over a not-very-good team (the Bears), a "just barely" win over a good team playing with a backup quarterback (the Ravens), another "just barely" win against a mediocre team with an injured quarterback (the Browns), and then a convincing win over the hated rival Vikings, although it was a team playing without their starting quarterback and one of their star receivers.  And then they ended the regular season with a meaningless loss to the Lions, which saw the return of David Bakhtiari and Josh Myers, and in which we saw more evidence that Jordan Love is not ready to take over for Aaron Rodgers just yet.

The playoffs started last week, with the only item of real interest to Packers fans being which team would come to Lambeau Field this week.  For many Packers fans, the worst possible matchup this week was the 49ers, with the memory of the 2019 NFC Championship game still a sore spot.  But, of course, when the Mike McCarthy-led Cowboys screwed up the clock management in the final minute and lost the game to the 49ers, that is exactly what happened.  I saw one of the online prognosticators chortling over the way that the Cowboys lost the game, basically saying that is what Mike McCarthy does - he screws up clock management when it counts.  That is a bit too harsh for my tastes, but there is definitely some truth in the observation.

In 2019, 13-3 was not good enough to get by the 49ers on the road, who whupped the Packers just as they had done during the regular season.  And in 2020, 13-3 was not good enough to get by the Buccaneers, even at home.  The Buccaneers had destroyed the Packers in the regular season, and while the Championship wasn't as convincing a win as the regular season game, the result was the same.  What about this year?  They went 13-3 for the third straight year, before dropping the final game for a 13-4 record.

The Packers are a flawed team.  They start most games slowly, and it seems as if they rarely lead after the first quarter is over.  You can't get away with spotting teams a quarter in the playoffs.  They look good sometimes on defense, but other times they let teams run all over them, most recently Nick Chubb in the Christmas day game, which the Packers hung on to win, 24-22 (my daughter and I were there to witness the carnage, and then to savor the win).  They have really good defensive backs, even with Jaire Alexander missing most of the season, but then they give up long touchdown passes as they did twice to the Bears, and twice more to the Rams the week before.  The Lions opened up the playbook against the Packers, and the Packers let them get away with it by not handling the trick plays very well.  Oh, and did I mention special teams?  The Packers have been all over the place on special teams this year.  Mostly atrocious, but in the last few weeks they have ascended to the point where you might consider them to be average.  

But let's face it, the 49ers are also flawed.  Jimmy G. will make some mistakes in the game, and throw some balls up for grabs, as he did in the regular season game this year.  It is up to the Packers to make sure they catch those balls.  And while the 49ers have a great pass rush, their defensive backs are not that good, so Rodgers ought to be able to connect with Adams and the other receivers.  Playing without several of the starting offensive linemen for most of the year, one thing Rodgers has been forced to do is to learn to get rid of the ball quickly.  I think that experience will serve him well against the 49ers.

In the regular season game, the Packers went up 17-0, before giving up a TD on the last play of the first half.  The 49ers eventually caught up and went ahead, 28-27, but they made a fatal mistake by leaving the Packers with 37 seconds on the clock and no time outs.  You know the rest.  Two fairly long passes to Adams, two spikes, and a 51 yard field goal by Crosby to win the game on the final play.

Both teams were missing starters that night back in September.  The 49ers will be close to full strength tomorrow night, as it looks as if both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, injured last week, will be able to play.  Jimmy G. is nicked up with shoulder and thumb injuries, but there is no doubt he will play.  The Packers look as if they will be without MVS for the game, but a large number of one-time playmakers look as if they will be back for the game, including Bakhtiari, Myers, Randall Cobb, Jaire Alexander, De'Vondre Campbell, Whitney Mercilus, and Za'Darius Smith.  Maybe some of those guys won't be able to play, and maybe some of them that do will be on snap counts.  Still, if you add that kind of talent and depth going into the playoffs, when you are already (at least arguably) the best team in the league, that helps a lot.  Add in the freezing temperatures, and you have yet another plus for the Packers.  Of course, we have learned to our chagrin that cold weather does not guarantee a win, even against a warm weather team, with last year's NFC Championship Game being a prime example.  But the bottom line is, I think the Packers will win this game, and it might not even be close.  Go Packers!