Bears are Last Obstacle to Home Field Advantage

Fun in the Snow, Photo by Evan Siegle, Packers.com

 In a game that didn't matter as much as it might have (because the Seahawks won earlier in the day), the Packers nevertheless rose to the occasion, putting together their most complete performance of the year in demolishing the Tennessee Titans, 40-14, who were 10-4 coming in and heading for the playoffs.  The Packers played four quarters on offense and defense, scoring 19 and allowing 7 in the first half, and then scoring 21 and allowing 7 in the second half.  So there was no "lull" period in Sunday night's game.  

Aaron Rodgers said in the post-game interview that he was sitting on the couch earlier in the day, watching the snow and hoping it would last until game time.  Sitting a couple of time zones away, I was doing the same thing.  One of my top Lambeau Field experiences was a snow game, and the word "magical" always comes to mind when I think of that game.  So I just knew that a snow game would be so much fun to watch.  What I was less certain of was whether it would be more beneficial to the Packers, just because they are used to the weather, or whether it would allow "King" Henry to just run all over the Packers and inch closer to a 2000 yard season.

On offense, the Packers' super secret surprise star was Algiers Jameal William Dillon, Jr. ("A.J. Dillon").  Many Packers fans have been wondering all year when we would see more of Dillon.  Obviously, he missed multiple weeks with what must have been a bad case of the Coronavirus.  He returned to action December 19 against the Panthers.  He had one carry, for 18 yards, in the second quarter.  You would have thought that was enough to earn some carries in the second half, but it didn't.  It took a cold night in the snow against the Titans to bring Dillon out into the spotlight.  

Was that the plan all along?  Save Dillon for a weather game late in December and into the playoffs?  Rodgers has remarked in the past about the value of having a big powerful running back in bad weather.  At 247 pounds, with massive legs, Dillon surely fits the bill.  Still, I have a feeling that this was not exactly the plan.  Rather, with Jamaal Williams inactive for the game, they planned to get Dillon a few more carries.  And then when Aaron Jones got nicked up in the second quarter, they had to lean on Dillon more than they had planned.  And wow, did he ever make the most of his opportunity.  He won't be a super secret surprise weapon any more, but what a change of pace running back he is for the cold weather.  As a slight footnote, the Packers brought back the jet sweep motion with Tavon Austin on Sunday night, and I can't help but believe that this mis-direction also helped the offense.

On defense, Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine came up with some wrinkles to stop Derrick Henry, including 5 and 6 man fronts on obvious rushing downs, to stop the run first, and see if Ryan Tannehill, a good quarterback with some good receiving weapons, could beat the Packers.  The bet being made by Pettine was that the defensive backs can cover man-to-man, and thus control the passing game despite being short-handed in the backfield.  The Titans could not make the Packers pay.  Instead, the Packers held Tannehill to 121 yards passing, while coming up with a pair of sacks and a couple of interceptions.  There was a series in the second where the Packers got a sack, a tipped ball, and another sack to force a 3 and out.  I did not know our defense could do that!

Meanwhile, Henry still gained 98 yards on the ground, so you could say he had a reasonably productive game.  But he had very little impact on the game.  He was outplayed by A.J. Dillon (124 yards and 2 touchdowns) and essentially equaled by Aaron Jones (94 yards, 0 touchdowns).

There were some glitches on special teams, including a missed extra point, a failed two-point conversion, and a blocked field goal that didn't actually count because of a penalty.  And speaking of things that didn't count, holder/punter J.K. Scott actually made a tackle on the blocked field goal, but that, too, was wiped away because of the penalty.  So special teams continue to not be all that special under Coach Shawn Mennenga, and you have to think that there is a good chance the Packers will be looking for a new Special Teams Coach in the off-season.  

Now the Packers go to Chicago, with lots on the line for both teams.  The very unfortunate New Year's Eve news was that David Bakhtiari was knocked out for the year in practice Thursday with an ACL injury.  That is a huge loss for the Packers, as he has been the Packers' most consistent offensive lineman in many ways.  On the other hand, Bakhtiari has missed time this year, as have other offensive linemen, and the Packers never really missed a beat.  The Packers have better quality depth in the offensive line than I had realized going into the season.  This injury, if nothing else, should serve as a reminder to Rodgers to get the ball out fast, on rhythm, before the Bears' rush can get to him.

The league has cleverly put the Packers-Bears, Seahawks-49ers, and Saints-Panthers game all at the same time (3:25 Lambeau Field Time), to ensure that the 3 NFC teams angling for the number one seed, and the bye, in the playoffs, are playing at the same time, for maximum dramatic effect.  The Packers get the number one seed in two possible ways: a Packers win or a Seahawks loss.  That's it.  In this weird year where the home field advantage doesn't mean as much, you can make a case that the Packers have the most to gain  from home field advantage of any team in  the league.

The Bears get into the playoffs two ways: with a Bears win or a Cardinals loss.  And, you got it, the Cardinals-Rams game is also being played at the same time.  So nobody gets an early peek at whether they really need to win the game or not.  At least on the NFC side, it is a perfect set up.  

Meanwhile, while we were paying very little attention to the Bears during their 6-game losing streak, it turns out that they are now on a 3-game winning streak, including dominant wins (for what it is worth) over the Texans and the Jaguars.  Plus, David Montgomery is now the number 5 running back in the league (in yards gained rushing).  And Mitch Trubisky has looked much better in his second stint as starting QB this year.  

Apart from the continuing headache of special teams, I don't think there is much argument  that the win against the Titans, in dominant fashion, over a team most likely headed for the playoffs, was the most complete game the Packers have played all year.  You talk about a team rounding into shape just as the playoffs are approaching?  If the Packers can win convincingly against the Bears in Week 17, they just might turn out to be the team that nobody wants to play in the playoffs.  Let's hope the Packers start off 2021 with a bang!

Ugly Win Keeps Packers at Number One with Two Weeks to Go

Rodgers, Looking As Shocked as the Fans Were By What He Saw

 In the lead up to Saturday night's Panthers game, I read lots of stuff to the effect that the Panthers have made lesser quarterbacks look like Aaron Rodgers, and that the Panthers don't have much pass of a pass rush, or great defensive backs.  The consensus was that the Packers would feast on the Panthers' defense.  Never mind that the Panthers have almost made an art form of losing games where they had a chance to tie or win the game at the end of the fourth quarter.

And a feast is just what it looked like for the first three Packers' drives, after which the score was Packers, 21-3.  It was all fun and games, and when Rodgers ran the ball in for the second touchdown, even an opposing Panther player seemed like he was enjoying the "I love gold!" celebration put on by Rodgers and the other Packers.  (See photo below.)

And then the lull started, earlier than usual, and this time mostly on the offensive side of the ball.  In the late second and third quarter, the Packers had 5 straight possessions ending in punts (mostly 3 and outs), while the Panthers clawed and scratched their way back into the game.  By the time the Panthers' fourth down pass fell incomplete with 13 seconds left, the Packers should have felt lucky to escape with a 24-16 win.  

I thought something was missing from the offense on Saturday night, apart from a lack of energy and execution after going up 21-3: the jet sweep motion.  This has been an effective technique all year long to show Rodgers how the defense reacts to the motion.  But if the Packers ran any jet sweep motion plays at all, I don't remember them.  Why not?  Tyler Ervin may be out, but presumably one of the reasons the Packers signed Tavon Austin was to run this motion.  I don't understand it, and hope to see it again on Sunday night.

By the way, the Packers also beat the Panthers at Lambeau Field last year.  Oddly enough, it was by an identical score (24-16), in identical weather (low 30's at kickoff).  Last year's game also came down to the final drive by the Panthers, where the game came down to a stop of Christian McCaffrey at the one yard line on the final play to preserve the win.  This is sounding like a bad habit for the Packers, except, as mentioned, the Panthers have had a bunch of games that they have lost this year despite having the chance to tie or win the game late in the fourth quarter.  So maybe the Panthers are one of those snake-bit teams that are better than their record reflects?

The good news is that the Packers are 11-3, and still in the driver's seat for the number one seed.  But the bad news is, as Rodgers said on the field after the game, that the disappointing way the second half played out left a bad taste in his mouth.  Or as someone on Facebook said, "Another win that feels like a loss."  I wasn't happy either, but I am going to argue that the situation is not as bad as it felt immediately after the game.

If this was a "bad win" for the Packers, they weren't alone in getting a bad win this week.  The Seahawks, at 10-4 and also fighting for a chance at the number one seed and a bye in the playoffs, barely hung on for a 20-15 win against the Washington Redskins Football Team.  Washington, depending on how you count it, was arguably down to their 3rd string quarterback.  Washington drove into Seattle territory on their final drive, but alas, ending up turning over the ball on downs.  The Buccaneers, now 9-5 and fighting to catch the Saints for the NFC South division crown, had to come roaring back from a 17-0 deficit against the 4-10 Falcons, before finally pulling ahead in the 4th quarter for a 31-27 win.  Is that an ugly win, too?  Or does the comeback aspect of the game make it feel better to Buccaneers fans?  The Cardinals, fighting for their playoff lives, had to hold off the not-very-good Eagles for a victory, with the Eagles taking several incomplete shots at tying the game in the final seconds.

Speaking of ugly wins, how about ugly losses?  The Rams, 9-5 and fighting to win their division, lost to the previously winless Jets, 23-20.  They got behind and could not catch up, losing the game, despite starting their final drive in Jets territory thanks to a big punt return.  And of course the Saints lost to the Chiefs, 32-29, with the Chiefs running out the clock to put the game away without giving the Saints one last chance to win it.  Maybe this wasn't an ugly loss, because of the quality of the defending champion Chiefs, but it counts the same in the record book.  

To sum it all up, of the 7 NFC teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs, there were 3 losses this week (Saints, Washington, Rams) and 4 wins, all of which were ugly in some ways (Packers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals).  I tend to focus only on my own team most of the time, rejoicing some times, and despairing other times.  Stepping outside the NFC for a minute, if you are unhappy with the "quality" of the Packers' 4 game winning streak, imagine if you were a Steelers fan.  Their 11-0 start is coming crashing down all around them with a 3 game losing streak, including losses to the not-so-great Washington team, and the really bad Bengals team Monday night.  It is worth having a little perspective here, that winning an NFL game isn't ever easy, and most if not all of the other teams go through the same sorts of problems.  I take some comfort in the fact that the defense again played better on Saturday night, especially in the secondary.  They also again held the opposing running backs to manageable yardage, and they forced a game-changing turnover at the goal line when Krys Barnes knocked the ball out of the outstretched hands of Teddy Bridgewater as he attempted to dive over the line for a touchdown.

Anyway, it is now clear that the Packers can secure the number one seed in a number of ways.  The easiest is to beat the Bears in Week 17, in which case it becomes irrelevant whether they win or lose against the Titans on Sunday night, and it is also irrelevant what any other team does in the final two weeks.  Unfortunately, the Packers can't know for sure this week that they will beat the Bears next week.  So they need to play their starters, play hard, and beat the Titans.  Now, it should be noted that if the Rams beat the Seahawks earlier on Sunday, then a Packers win against the Titans will secure the number one seed for the Packers Sunday night.  

I have an uncomfortable feeling about this game.  I suspect that the Seahawks will beat the Rams, resulting in a letdown for the Packers, who might then be a little too focused on the fact that "all" they need to do is beat the Bears the following week, and thus not play well against the Titans.  Derrick Henry can almost single-handedly win a game.  I am hoping the Packers will get it done, but I could easily see the Packers dropping this game.

Get a Grip, Fans!

Mike McCarthy, Speaking for All of Us, photo by Mark Hoffman, USA Today

Real life intruded to prevent me from posting anything about the Packers' loss to the Falcons last week (Falcons won, 33-32), and so now I have two unfortunate losses to look back on before turning to the Titans game this Sunday.  The Falcons game, as it turned out, was a tremendous disappointment.  I had come to expect the Packers to lose that game, especially when I saw the inactive list before the game.

And then came the Colts game (Colts won, 31-26).  That one I expected the Packers to win.  They were at home, the Colts have not been playing up to expectations, they don't have a very good offensive line, I was assuming that the Packers would get back Montgomery and maybe Cobb and maybe Matthews, so I just didn't see them losing the game.  But they did, obviously, starting with the opening kickoff which even the NFL Sunday Ticket didn't give to us since the local station was carrying the Packers game and they were still in commercial at the time.

Games like this make some people crazy.  Here was the Facebook status of one of my Packer fan Facebook friends shortly after the game.  Remember, this is a Packers fan, not some troll or some Bears fan or whatever:

"THE PACKERS ARE GARBAGE ..... GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEADS."  

Long ago, when I was a law clerk working in the Federal Court of Appeals in Chicago, I learned that typing your motion or brief in all caps definitely adds extra persuasiveness to your position.  In those days, petitioners and brief-writers couldn't easily change the size of the font, but if they could have, all caps and huge font size would really have been extra super duper persuasive.  

Look, I am not trying to make fun of my Packer fan Facebook friend, but rather I am trying to make the point that people need to get a grip.  The Packers are not playing very well right now.  They don't have the killer instinct, or they would have at least found a way to win one of the last two games against the Falcons and Colts.  You might even say that they are a mediocre team at 4-4.  Maybe being a 4-4 team is the very definition of mediocrity.  They certainly are not as good as I assumed they would be at the beginning of the year.  Right now, I am not confident that the Packers will even make the playoffs, much less make any noise in the playoffs.  But I think it is a little early to give up on the season.  If they start to turn things around right away, they can squeak into the playoffs, and as they showed in 2010, once you get in, anything can happen.

This week they travel to play the Titans.  It is always harder to win on the road, other things being equal, but this game is a chance to start to turn things around.  The Titans aren't exactly tearing up the league, either, at 4-5, although Marcus Mariota at QB is looking better all the time, and DeMarco Murray is one of the best running backs in the league.  But they give up a lot of points, and they have only beaten Cleveland and Jacksonville in their home stadium.  So let's just say that the Packers win the game, and have another week to get Clay Matthews (who will not play this week) and some of the other players healthier going forward to additional games.  5-4 looks a lot better than 4-5, and if the Vikings happen to lose again, what with the Lions being on bye, we could have a three-way tie for first in the North after Sunday.  

Best Performer Last Sunday, Photo by Mike De Sisti, USA Today

Gut-Check Time

Photo by Jeffrey Phelps, AP

In my last post, I was wondering when the last time was that the Packers got off to a fast start.  One word from me apparently was all it took.  Against the Titans, the Packers led 14-0 at the end of the first quarter, 20-0 at the half, and 34-0 at the end of the third quarter.  They went on to win 55-7, losing the shutout in the final two minutes of the game.

Not only that, but the Seahawks (yes, the same blasted Seahawks who almost screwed up the Packers' season with the Fail Mary game) went out and put a major hurt on the 49ers.  Who knew the Seahawks were for real?  But apparently they are, having scored 58, 50 and 42 in their last three games.  This really shook things up.  It put the Packers in the no. 2 seed for now, with the bye week that entails, it left the Vikings clinging to the no. 6 seed, but probably needing to beat the Packers next week to hold onto it, it moved the Packers-Vikings to the 3:25 pm (LFT) time slot next week, and it leaves the final NFC playoff spot to be determined in the Sunday night Cowboys-Redskins game.

Now comes the test for the Packers.  After starting the season 2-3, I remember having discussions with family and friends about whether the Packers could even recover sufficiently to make the playoffs.  Ten games and nine wins later, they have made the playoffs, won the division, will have a home game, and all they need is one last win against the Vikings to secure a first round bye.

I can think of seasons where the Packers had to depend on the outcome in another game in the final week to see if they made the playoffs.  Sometimes it worked out (as in the miraculous Cardinals-Vikings game to close the 2003 season, when the final play of the game, on 4th and 24, knocked the Vikings out of the playoff and the Packers into the playoffs).  More often it did not.  I can recall some game in the late 1980's or early 1990's when the Monday Night crew, in the final game of the regular season, kept going for reaction shots to Don Majkowski's den, where he and several teammates were watching the Packers' playoff chances going up in smoke.

Without looking it up to find an example, I know there have been other years when the burden was on the Packers, to win in order to advance to the playoffs, or to win to better their position in the playoffs.  In some of those cases, they came up short and failed.  Well, they get another chance on Sunday, before a national audience, to go into the playoffs on a high note.  The Vikings are playing better than I expected this year.  True, they are last in the league in passing offense, as might be expected with Christian Ponder at quarterback, but they are third in the league in rushing offense, thanks to the marvelous year Adrian Peterson is having.  Peterson needs 208 yards rushing to break the all-time single season rushing record, so he obviously has lots of motivation to play well, and the Vikings will probably need to win to get the wild card spot.  So there is a lot on the line for the Vikings.

Packer fans might be a little gun-shy about getting a bye week, after last year's debacle against the Giants, but let's not kid ourselves.  A week off to get healthy, at this time of year?  Plus the opportunity to get to the Super Bowl after winning only two playoff games, instead of three?  It is a no-brainer to try to get that bye week.

So, to spur the Packers along a little, let me offer this: I wonder when the last time was that the Packers came out and just shut down a top-notch running back, basically taking him out of the game as an impact player?

Remember the Titans?

Trivia question: when was the last time the Packers got off to a fast start in a game?  Because they certainly didn't do it against the Bears last Sunday.  The Packers misfired on their first offensive series, with Rodgers throwing the ball behind receivers several times, and took a couple of sacks on the first two series, before ending a scoreless first quarter.  To make matters worse, they came close to giving up an interception on one tipped ball, and they almost had their first punt blocked.  The Bears got on the board first, in the second quarter, with a TD pass to new public enemy no. 1, Brandon Marshall, before the Packers finally seemed to get started in the game.

At the end of the day, the Packers were able to win the game in what would have been a comfortable fashion, but for one of the worst coaching calls in recent memory - the 4th quarter Randall Cobb "throwback" trick play punt return - Cobb caught the punt, then threw the ball across the field.  It looked like it could have been a good play with lots of potential in the right situation.  The receiver could have done a better job of going to get the ball, but instead the ball was fumbled and recovered by the Bears.  Close to your own goal line?  Leading by 11 points and with 8 minutes left, when the Bears have had almost no offense all day long?  I just don't see the risk-reward balance on this play as making it even close to being a sensible decision.

Mason Crosby missed another pair of field goals, from 43 and 42 yards.  This has got to be a mental issue at this point - Crosby has talent, but is not executing the kicks.  I question whether there is a better kicker out there bagging groceries and waiting for a call, so I am reluctantly in McCarthy's camp on this - Crosby is our kicker, period, so get over it and hope he gets through this soon.  Meanwhile, for an amusing look at a kicker who apparently is available to replace Crosby on a moment's notice, take a look at this video, located by the Acme Packing Company website.

Trap Game Ahead?  And now the Tennessee Titans come to Lambeau, for the last regular season home game of the year.  The Titans are 5-9, and have given up 396 points this season.  Only the Raiders and the Bills have given up more (402).  But they also have Chris Johnson who, as the Jets found out Monday night, is capable of taking over a game.  And the Packers have been known, from time to time, to give up big games to running backs.  So this game could be one of those games that could jump up and bite the Packers.  But I doubt it.  As bad as the Jets are now, the Titans only beat them by 4 points, despite a 94 yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson.  The Packers are just a better team, and the Titans are a little out of their element playing in Wisconsin in January.  Still, there is no margin for error if the Packers hope to rise to the no. 2 seed, so it would be advisable for them to "remember the Titans."

Bye Week Possibilities.  I really figured the 49ers would lose to the Patriots on Sunday night.  And of course, if they had, the Packers would be sitting at the No. 2 NFC seed right now.  I sort of gave up hope when the 49ers were ahead 31-3.  But I kept watching, mostly for Fantasy Football reasons.  Lo and behold, the Patriots tied it up at 31, before losing the game 41-34.  So the question now becomes, assuming the Packers beat the Titans, can the Seahawks give the Packers a little help by beating the 49ers?  It would be a welcome "payback" by the Seahawks to the Packers, after the "Fail Mary" game.  It almost seems like completely different 49er and Seahawks teams will be playing Sunday night, as compared to their last meeting 10 weeks ago, when the 49ers won, 13-6.  Both teams are scoring a lot more points now.  The Seahawks scored 50 or more points the last two weeks, admittedly against bad teams.  But the way they are playing now, the Seahawks certainly have a shot, and it would not even be a huge upset if they won.

Battle of the 1-3s

When league officials and ABC people sat down to rough out the Monday Night Football TV Schedule, Tennessee at Green Bay probably looked pretty good for the week 5 game. A couple of playoff teams from last year, both likely playoff contenders this year as well, both with tough, hard-nosed, popular quarterbacks at the helm.

"The best-laid schemes o' mice an 'men gang aft agley." Turns out that tomorrow night's game is between a couple of losers ("success-challenged"for the PC crowd) led by wounded warriors. Obviously Packer fans, Titans fans and those of us who watch every Monday Night game no matter what will tune in, but others could be excused for thinking that this game might be a good time to do a little year-end tax planning, catching up on homework or whatever else may be on their "to-do" lists.

So, where do the Packers stand at the one-quarter mark of the season? Is it true, as a family member who will remain nameless said this week, that the"Packers suck"? I am not ready to go that far (yet). The Packers certainly don't look like they will be in the running for home field advantage or fora bye week in the playoffs this year. On the other hand, going into this week's games, they were not far behind the division-leading Lions and Vikings, both at 2-1. Still, as this is being written at half-time of the early games on Sunday, the Vikings are beating the Texans (not a big surprise) and the Lions are beating the Falcons (much more of a surprise).This suggests that at least one of them is likely to be at 3-1 after today's games, which in turn suggests that it is high time for the Packers to win another game.

The Packers are, I think, better than they have been playing. Fumbles and injuries have had an impact on a couple of their games. Mike Flanagan and Doug Pederson are not coming back from their injuries this year, and Mike McKenzie, assuming he comes back, will be wearing a different uniform. It appears that Brett Favre will be ready to play this week, and it would be nice if Grady Jackson comes back soon. And while Ahman Green has struggled with the label as a fumbler throughout his career, maybe, looking at the bright side, he has gotten his fumbling out of his system for the year.

One of the teams on Monday night is going to end up with a 1-4 record. That is not a good place to be. Already, at 1-3 and living in the San Francisco area, I have been reduced to the slogan "your team stinks worse than my team." It is up to the Packers to rise to the occasion if they have any intent to try to turn this season around.

Bounced Again

Here we go again. Not content to be in first place, the Packers, for the third time this year, lost a game to a lesser opponent after a crucial victory the week before. [Ed.note - the Packers lost to the Titans, 26-20.] As a result, they dropped all the way from leading the division, being in a position for a bye week in the playoffs followed by a home playoff game, to the number 5 seed in the playoffs, with no bye week and a road game against another wild card team (at San Francisco, interestingly enough).

What is it with this team? I think it is becoming clearer and clearer that they just are not as good as we had hoped, during the moments of euphoria following the 3-0 start at the beginning of the season, or following the big victories over the Ravens and twice over the Bears. Instead, they are a pretty good team, but one with a lot of injury problems right now, and with a real problem of inconsistency from week to week.

That is not necessarily a condemnation. Pretty good teams sometimes get hot and go on to win the Super Bowl, as the Ravens did last year after going for a month earlier in the season without scoring an offensive touchdown. And the Packers are both playing better than most people expected them to play this year, and, at 9-4, have a better record than people expected. But there is still a sense of disappointment at letting the division lead slip through their fingers not once, but twice after beating the Bears. The best the Packers can hope for now is to win their last three games, and hope that the Bears trip up along the way, which is possible but not all that likely.

Last week, I was nervous that the Packers would let down against Tennessee and lose the game. While they lost, I am not sure there was really a letdown. I saw the Packer players seemingly trying hard to make plays throughout the game, but just coming up short, mostly caused, at least in my mind, by three things: the relentless pressure caused by the Tennessee defensive line, the injury-induced problems the Packer defense had, and, let's face it, the fact that the Titans' offensive players just went out and made a lot of plays happen. The result was a good example of the Titans pretty much dominating the game, especially at the line of scrimmage.

Now the thoroughly demoralized Browns come to town. While they suffered a painful loss to the Jaguars last week under bizarre circumstances, I found the comments of President Carmen Policy and Owner Al Lerner after the game,in essentially condoning the actions of the fans who threw bottles and other objects onto the field, to be an utter dereliction of duty on their part.
Policy, undoubtedly under severe pressure from the League, recanted those remarks on Monday and tried to set a better tone, calling the bottle throwers "hooligans." Better late than never, I guess, but there really needs to be a zero tolerance policy for this sort of thing. People throwing objects should be arrested and prosecuted, and if they are season-ticket holders, they should be at risk of losing their tickets. I hope we will never see shenanigans like this in Lambeau Field.