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But the game had a very odd rhythm to it, and by the fourth quarter, Packers fans were squirming, just a little, in their seats. After amassing a 31-3 lead late in the third quarter, the Packers almost let the Cowboys back into the game. The good thing, as Chris and Dave at the Packers Therapy podcast noted in their podcast this week, was that the Packers didn't do it via the tried and not-so-true prevent defense. Instead, they continued to rush 4 in the final quarter plus of the game, but Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper made enough plays to close the gap to 34-24, and a missed field goal would have made it 34-27 and brought an onside kick at the end of the game. The missed field goal, thankfully, ended the unwelcome excitement prematurely, and my family breathed a sigh of relief, as did the Eagles fan watching the game in the same room with us. Look, with a 31-3 lead with three minutes left in the third quarter, you should win the game regardless of the approach you take. But I liked the aggressiveness of the defense in keeping after the Cowboys, rather than let them "prevent defense" their way down the field for score after score.
How did the Packers let the Cowboys get as close as they did? I saw a very interesting piece by Ty Schalter of FiveThirtyEight, making the point that Rodgers has been very hot in the first quarters of games this year, but less effective as the game goes on, and particularly ineffective in the fourth quarters. Weird, but true. In the five games so far this year, the Packers have scored 49 points in the first quarters, all on TDs, while they have scored 9 points in the fourth quarters, basically one field goal every other game. So I rewatched the Cowboys game with this idea in mind. What I saw was a nice use of deception on first downs in the first quarter. I think the Packers only had a conventional run on first down once. They had lots of play action passes, some straight dropback passes, and one end around. They rode this diverse strategy to a 14-0 first quarter lead, and the fun continued until it was 31-3 late in the third quarter. Oh, and there was the little matter of a career day by Aaron Jones, who scored 4 touchdowns to tie a team record. (In case you were wondering, Jim Taylor did it 3 times in 1962, Terdell Middleton did it in 1978, and Dorsey Levens did it in 2000. Some pretty great receivers also scored 4 TDs in a single game: Don Hutson and Sterling Sharpe.)
So what was the deal with the offense late in the game? I think the offense was not as aggressive or creative as the defense was late in the game. The first two drives in the fourth quarter, for example, both started with the old run-run-pass combination. The first drive was ended with no points after an incompletion and a sack, while the second drive ended with a field goal, but only because of the great field position from Kevin King's interception. The Packers' final drive, other than the kneel downs after the missed field goal, didn't quite fall into the run-run-pass mold, but that drive was messed up by a 10 yard loss by Aaron Jones, and an 11 yard sack taken by Aaron Rodgers. It is tough to overcome that, and the Packers didn't. But the key thing to me is that one more Green Bay first down in any of its three drives would probably have run out the clock with less angst. In my view, what is needed is a little more aggressiveness on offense late in the game, while keeping the aggressiveness on defense.
Monday night, the Packers play the second-place Lions at Lambeau Field. If the Packers win the game, they will be 3-0 in the division and in great shape. If they lose, they will be 3-2, and the Lions will move past them into first place at 3-1-1. So this game is a big deal in the NFC North. I haven't watched much of the Lions so far this year, but they appear to be no joke. They are also somewhat of an enigma, though. Every Lions game has been decided by 4 points or fewer, and their games have included a tie against the last-place Cardinals, a win over the Chargers (who maybe are not as good as we thought they would be), a win against the first-place Eagles, and a narrow loss to the first-place Chiefs. The Lions are also riding a 4 game winning streak against the Packers, so it is impossible to count them out. But I think the home field advantage and the continuing improvement of the Packers' offense will be enough to bring the Packers another win, even without Davante Adams and Darnell Savage. I can't wait until Monday night.
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