The Packers Finally Reach the Bye Week!

Woodson Ceremony, Photo by Tim Flanigan, WLUK

If I had predicted, two weeks ago, the outcome of the Packers games against the Vikings and Rams, I would have predicted a win against the Vikings and a loss to the Rams.  Instead, just the opposite happened, with the Packers dropping the game to Minnesota, 31-34, and beating the Rams, 36-28.  Ultimately, I don't think it much matters which way the Packers went about winning one and losing one.  I don't really think that the (now) 5-6 Vikings will be able to catch the (now) 9-3 Packers to win the division.  And I doubt that the 7-4 Rams will catch the 9-2 Cardinals to win that division.  Of course, the fact that the Packers now have tie-breaker advantages over both the Cardinals and Rams could turn out to be important down the road.

The Minnesota game was a huge disappointment, but as mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the Vikings almost always play the Packers tough.  After all the injuries the Packers have had this year, losing Elgton Jenkins (the "Swiss Army Knife" offensive lineman) for the season seemed like a huge problem, especially with David Bakhtiari not quite ready to return.  But against the Rams, the Packers showed once again how resilient they have become this year.  Facing both Aaron Donald and Von Miller, this did not seem like a good time to lose yet another offensive lineman.  But the offensive line played remarkably well, giving up only one sack, and providing Rodgers enough time to throw for over 300 yards, 2 touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown.  The Packers got enough out of the rushing game and the short passing game to really control the clock, almost doubling the Rams' time of possession.

At any rate, they have managed (finally) to reach the bye week, and now get an extra week for players who have been playing through injuries (including Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Rashan Gary) to get healthier, and perhaps even allowing for injured players like Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander, and Za'Darius Smith to return to the lineup.  If most or all of these players can get healthier and ready to play, the Packers have a lot of upside in the playoff stretch.

All year long, I have been concerned that Rodgers' ability to hit the long pass has declined this year.  It seemed as if he was missing way more of those throws than in the past.  But in the last couple of games, it seemed as if he was hitting more of them (the TD pass to MVS against the Vikings, and the long passes to Adams and Cobb and MVS against the Rams being great examples).  Turns out it was not just my active imagination.  The stats absolutely back up my impression that Rodgers has upped his game in the last couple of weeks.

The Rams game also included the Charles Woodson Hall of Fame ring presentation ceremony, and the unveiling of his place in the Ring of Honor.  Woodson was one of the all-time greats, and it was great to see him back in Lambeau Field, and to see the reaction of the fans.  It is hard to believe that he was only with the Packers for seven years, because the things he accomplished during that time were really something, culminating in the completion of the win in Super Bowl XLV, after Woodson had been knocked out of the game.  The ceremony from Sunday's game can be found here.

The Packers' schedule to the end of the regular season is not easy, but it could be a lot worse.  They play the AFC-leading Ravens and the Lions on the road, and they have home games against the Bears, Browns and Vikings.  Just for frame of reference, the goal is obviously to catch the Cardinals and secure the top seed in the NFC.  The Cardinals have 6 remaining games, at least 3 of which should be considered tough games: the Rams and Colts at home, and the Cowboys on the road.  Add in a weather game at the Bears, and a season-ending game against the Seahawks (who, just maybe, might be playing better by then), and you can see that the Packers have a decent chance of securing the top seed.  They just mainly need to guard against losing games they should win.  A week of rest and recovery should get them on the way to finishing out the season in style.  

Another Challenge for the Packers' Defense

 

Rodgers Back Behind Center, Photo by Dan Powers, USA Today

All of the pre-game hype was about the return of Russell Wilson from his finger injury, and the return of Aaron Rodgers from his bout with Covid-19.  Neither quarterback looked great; in fact they both looked as if they haven't played in awhile.  More about that later.  But the quarterbacks were not the story of this game.  The story of the game was the Packers' defense.

You can slice it any number of ways.  The Packers defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in each of the last 5 games.  They have given up a total of 34 points in the last 3 games, playing against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson.  They registered their first shutout since 2018.  They shut out Russell Wilson for the first time in his career.  And bear in mind that they are doing this without their best defensive back, Jaire Alexander, and without one of their best impact defensive players, Za'Darius Smith.  Both of those guys may be back by the end of the season, so this defense may just continue to get better.

When the Packers were torched in week one by the Saints, 38-3, after going winless in the pre-season, not many people would have predicted the way the defense started playing just a few weeks later.  I don't think many would have predicted an 8-2 record after suffering through that Saints game.  And if you added in the facts that the Packers' offense hasn't quite looked right all year, there is no way you could predict that the Packers would be 8-2 and in the number one seed for the playoffs at this point.  As a matter of fact, the Packers have only scored 216 points in their 10 games, an average of less than 22 points per game, and the fewest points scored by any division leader in the league (the other division leaders have scored between 231 and 287 points).  

In this game, both quarterbacks played at a level that even they would have to agree was sub-standard.  Wilson was missing passes, threw no touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and averaged only 8 yards per completion.  His quarterback rating was a season low 39.7.  It is worth pointing out that he came back early from his finger injury - it was predicted that he would be out for 6 to 8 weeks, but he returned after 4.  It is quite an accomplishment, but at the same time, with the way he played, he probably should have waited another week or two.  During Wilson's absence, they only won one game (against the Jaguars), so it is understandable that they would start Wilson as soon as possible.  But they might have been better off with Geno Smith.

All year long, Rodgers has not looked quite right to me, certainly not by comparison to his MVP season last year.  In this game, he missed a number of long passes that we sort of expect him to complete, like the long pass to MVS in the first quarter.  And he had a couple of passes batted down in the first half.  And of course he had the interception in the end zone in the third quarter, one of the worst (on-field) decisions Rodgers has made in some time.  Last week, the feeling was that Adams, in his return from Covid-19, was not back at full strength, and the same was probably true of Rodgers against the Seahawks.  Even a mild case of Covid can be debilitating, and Rodgers even mentioned on the Pat McAfee show that he mostly watched the game lying down.  So it is reasonable to assume that the disease took something out of Rodgers.  Another week of recovery, even if he missed some practices with a toe injury, can only help Rodgers to be back closer to full strength.

The first three quarters were excruciating to watch.  The Packers looked much better than the Seahawks, but they only had 3 points to show for it.  One blown coverage, one missed tackle, and the Seahawks might have gone ahead.  The Packers finally finished some drives in the fourth quarter, and put the game away.  But this game was completely in doubt until the fourth quarter.

The Vikings game this week will be a real test for the Packers.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Packers are the better team.  But the U.S. Bank Stadium is a place, like the Chiefs' stadium, that is a challenging place to play.  And it seems as if the Vikings always play the Packers tough, even though the Packers are usually the better team.  In the last 10 games between the two, the Packers' record is 4-5-1, so there is plenty of reason for concern.  Last year, at Lambeau Field, Dalvin Cook ran all over the Packers on the way to a 28-22 Vikings win.  It will be interesting to see if the new and improved Packers defense can slow him down.  I think they will, and I think the offense will look a little more alive this week, leading the Packers to a well-earned win and a blow to the Vikings' hopes to make the playoffs. 

Back to the Present

Packers' only Score, Photo by Packers.com

We have learned a couple of things in the last two weeks.  The Packers are good enough to win a game against the league leading and previously undefeated Cardinals, even if they are without their top 3 receivers (Adams, Lazard, and Valdes-Scantling).  The Cardinals gift-wrapped the win, to be sure, by giving up a game-clinching interception in the end zone in the closing seconds, but the Packers played well enough all game long to feel good about pocketing the win.

And we have learned that the Packers are not good enough to beat a pretty average Chiefs team, even though they got their receivers back, but with second year QB Jordan Love behind center.  We were all hoping for a better result than the 13-7 loss to the Chiefs, but it was obvious that Love is not really ready to be the heir apparent just yet.  He showed promise at times, especially in the fourth quarter, but in my opinion Matt LaFleur, fresh off a brilliant game plan against the Cardinals, did Love no favors by underemphasizing the running game.  With Jones averaging more than 4 yards per carry, and Dillon averaging more than 5 yards per carry, a game plan where Love ended up throwing the ball 34 times compared to a combined 20 carries for Jones and Dillon, makes no sense, and LaFleur, since the game, has acknowledged that he should have done a better job in game planning.  Might another start or two for Love help him take the next step and show himself capable of taking over the reins when Rodgers departs?  Maybe.  But it seems clear that if Rodgers is cleared to play on Saturday, they will almost certainly have him start the game.  

Under the right circumstances, a team can come together and "have the back" of a backup quarterback.  In week 8, that happened when the Jets, Saints, Cowboys and Seahawks won their games while starting backup quarterbacks.  But the rest of the team, and the coaching staff, have to pick up the slack.  Unfortunately for the Packers, only the defense showed up for Jordan Love.  The defense essentially held the once-explosive Chiefs offense to 10 points (the other three points were courtesy of the muffed punt).  But the special teams were a wasteland, with two missed field goals, and two muffed punts, one of which resulted in a turnover and an easy 3 points for the Chiefs.  All told, you could say that the special teams cost the Packers 9 points on the day, which obviously might have been enough to make the difference between a loss and a win.  And the coaching staff, in addition to under-emphasizing the running game, also called a lot of pass plays with deep dropbacks by Love.  How different the game might have been if they had emphasized the run, and emphasized the quick passes that amount to an extension of the running game.  

Oh, well, lesson learned, or at least we can hope that the lesson has been learned.  This week, the Packers will most likely have Rodgers back, and they will most likely have David Bakhtiari back for the first time this year.  Rodgers may not be in great game shape, since he has been quarantining on his couch for the 10 days leading up to the game.  So the coaching staff may still have the opportunity to come up with a creative game plan to take advantage of Rodgers' talents without exposing him to unnecessary fatigue due to his conditioning.  

Russell Wilson has been out for most of the last four games, during which the Seahawks had a 1-3 record.  While the Seahawks' passing game will be much improved with the return of Wilson, the running game is still a bit of a mess, with Chris Carson on IR and not expected back this week.  The Seahawks game is one that the Packers should win, and it would be very helpful to get back into the Win column, with games coming up in the next few weeks against the Rams, Viking, Ravens and Browns.  Go Packers!

The Sky is Falling! Or is it?

Supply Your Own Caption

The Packers have no chance!  It is a total disaster!  With one of the Packers' biggest stars out of the lineup due to Covid, and various other injuries and Covid problems, playing against one of the better teams in the league, there is no way that the Packers can keep their winning streak going.  The Packers will be lucky if the game is not totally out of hand by halftime.

As you might have guessed by now, that was more or less my reaction last week, when the news came down that Davante Adams would almost certainly miss the game against Arizona, Allen Lazard would definitely miss the game, and neither MVS not David Bakhtiari would be ready to return to the lineup.  And yet, the Packers won the game, holding on for a 24-21 victory when recent signee Rasul Douglas abruptly ended the Cardinals' chance with a dramatic end zone interception in the closing seconds of the game.  

Head coach Matt LaFleur deserves a lot of credit for a game plan that took advantage of the weaknesses of the Cardinals' defense, by emphasizing the running game rather than the passing game, which (not coincidentally) also emphasized the Packers' stronger suit under the circumstances, with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon leading the way.  Acting defensive coordinator Jerry Gray (taking the place of Joe Barry, also sidelined by Covid), also called a great game by consistently applying pressure to the Cardinals' passing game.  

Now, it is true that by the end of the game, the Cardinals were poised to spoil the Packers' day by either winning the game in the final seconds with a touchdown, or by getting a "gimme" field goal to take the game to overtime where, with all of the momentum having shifted to the Cardinals' side, the Cardinals would probably have won.  This, in my view, was mostly the result of questionable play calling by LaFleur (or perhaps Rodgers at the line of scrimmage) in the red zone.  Three times, the Packers had first downs inside the Cardinals' 5 yard line (once in the second, once in the third, and once in the fourth quarters).  Despite the game planning for the running game, inside the 5 yard line, the Packers mostly emphasized the pass.  They ended up with 10 points to show for those 3 possessions.  Sticking with the running game plan would likely have yielded 14 points, maybe 17 points, maybe even 21 points.  Any of those results would have changed the complexion of the game in the closing minutes.  As it was, it took the last minute interception by Douglas to secure the win.

OK, well if last week I thought the Packers would almost certainly lose, what about this week?  This time, they have to travel to play the Chiefs, and this time they are without their biggest star, Aaron Rodgers, who has not only come down with Covid-19, it turns out he has clearly been trying to mislead the public by creating the impression that he has been vaccinated ("Yeah, I've been immunized"), when the truth is that he has not.  Even vaccinated players can catch the virus, but by (in my opinion, stupidly) refusing to get vaccinated, Rodgers increased the odds that he would get the virus, and increased the chances that his infection might be a serious one.  Not exactly a profile in team leadership, and he richly deserves all the blowback he is getting in the media and with fans.  

At any rate, instead of getting the Mahomes vs. Rodgers matchup many had been anticipating, we now will have the first career start by second year QB Jordan Love.  Is Love up to the task?  As Matt LaFleur said, "we'll find out."  Either way, this will be a preview of coming attractions when Rodgers leaves town, and whether we like it or not, we will be getting that preview sooner than we had hoped.

While Love's first start will be against the reigning AFC Champions, that is not quite as daunting a task as it would have appeared at the beginning of the season.  The Chiefs have been having a weird season, and they are only 4-4. and have given up more points (220) than they have scored (208).  They have lost to some good teams, but they also came close to losing to the Giants last week.  Meanwhile, the Packers will have Lazard and MVS back this week, and most likely Adams as well.  It is possible that even Bakhtiari will be back.  With Rodgers out, Love's backup would normally have been Kurt Benkert, but Benkert is also out on the Covid list.  Fans of the series The Good Place will be happy to know that Blake Bortles was whisked off a Florida golf course, caught the next plane to Green Bay, and will serve as Love's backup on Sunday.

Having escaped with a short-handed win against the previously undefeated Cardinals NFC team last week, the Packers are essentially playing with house money at this point.  LaFleur has had all week to design a game plan around Love's strengths and avoiding his weaknesses.  Love looked pretty good in his limited action for the Packers in the preseason and in mop up duty in Week 1.  To my mind, the Packers' task this week is far less hopeless than the task last week against the Cardinals.  I think they have a real chance to win this game.  And if they don't, at least the loss will be to an AFC team, which is obviously less harmful than a loss to an NFC team.  Go Packers!