Ugly Win Keeps Packers at Number One with Two Weeks to Go

Rodgers, Looking As Shocked as the Fans Were By What He Saw

 In the lead up to Saturday night's Panthers game, I read lots of stuff to the effect that the Panthers have made lesser quarterbacks look like Aaron Rodgers, and that the Panthers don't have much pass of a pass rush, or great defensive backs.  The consensus was that the Packers would feast on the Panthers' defense.  Never mind that the Panthers have almost made an art form of losing games where they had a chance to tie or win the game at the end of the fourth quarter.

And a feast is just what it looked like for the first three Packers' drives, after which the score was Packers, 21-3.  It was all fun and games, and when Rodgers ran the ball in for the second touchdown, even an opposing Panther player seemed like he was enjoying the "I love gold!" celebration put on by Rodgers and the other Packers.  (See photo below.)

And then the lull started, earlier than usual, and this time mostly on the offensive side of the ball.  In the late second and third quarter, the Packers had 5 straight possessions ending in punts (mostly 3 and outs), while the Panthers clawed and scratched their way back into the game.  By the time the Panthers' fourth down pass fell incomplete with 13 seconds left, the Packers should have felt lucky to escape with a 24-16 win.  

I thought something was missing from the offense on Saturday night, apart from a lack of energy and execution after going up 21-3: the jet sweep motion.  This has been an effective technique all year long to show Rodgers how the defense reacts to the motion.  But if the Packers ran any jet sweep motion plays at all, I don't remember them.  Why not?  Tyler Ervin may be out, but presumably one of the reasons the Packers signed Tavon Austin was to run this motion.  I don't understand it, and hope to see it again on Sunday night.

By the way, the Packers also beat the Panthers at Lambeau Field last year.  Oddly enough, it was by an identical score (24-16), in identical weather (low 30's at kickoff).  Last year's game also came down to the final drive by the Panthers, where the game came down to a stop of Christian McCaffrey at the one yard line on the final play to preserve the win.  This is sounding like a bad habit for the Packers, except, as mentioned, the Panthers have had a bunch of games that they have lost this year despite having the chance to tie or win the game late in the fourth quarter.  So maybe the Panthers are one of those snake-bit teams that are better than their record reflects?

The good news is that the Packers are 11-3, and still in the driver's seat for the number one seed.  But the bad news is, as Rodgers said on the field after the game, that the disappointing way the second half played out left a bad taste in his mouth.  Or as someone on Facebook said, "Another win that feels like a loss."  I wasn't happy either, but I am going to argue that the situation is not as bad as it felt immediately after the game.

If this was a "bad win" for the Packers, they weren't alone in getting a bad win this week.  The Seahawks, at 10-4 and also fighting for a chance at the number one seed and a bye in the playoffs, barely hung on for a 20-15 win against the Washington Redskins Football Team.  Washington, depending on how you count it, was arguably down to their 3rd string quarterback.  Washington drove into Seattle territory on their final drive, but alas, ending up turning over the ball on downs.  The Buccaneers, now 9-5 and fighting to catch the Saints for the NFC South division crown, had to come roaring back from a 17-0 deficit against the 4-10 Falcons, before finally pulling ahead in the 4th quarter for a 31-27 win.  Is that an ugly win, too?  Or does the comeback aspect of the game make it feel better to Buccaneers fans?  The Cardinals, fighting for their playoff lives, had to hold off the not-very-good Eagles for a victory, with the Eagles taking several incomplete shots at tying the game in the final seconds.

Speaking of ugly wins, how about ugly losses?  The Rams, 9-5 and fighting to win their division, lost to the previously winless Jets, 23-20.  They got behind and could not catch up, losing the game, despite starting their final drive in Jets territory thanks to a big punt return.  And of course the Saints lost to the Chiefs, 32-29, with the Chiefs running out the clock to put the game away without giving the Saints one last chance to win it.  Maybe this wasn't an ugly loss, because of the quality of the defending champion Chiefs, but it counts the same in the record book.  

To sum it all up, of the 7 NFC teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs, there were 3 losses this week (Saints, Washington, Rams) and 4 wins, all of which were ugly in some ways (Packers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals).  I tend to focus only on my own team most of the time, rejoicing some times, and despairing other times.  Stepping outside the NFC for a minute, if you are unhappy with the "quality" of the Packers' 4 game winning streak, imagine if you were a Steelers fan.  Their 11-0 start is coming crashing down all around them with a 3 game losing streak, including losses to the not-so-great Washington team, and the really bad Bengals team Monday night.  It is worth having a little perspective here, that winning an NFL game isn't ever easy, and most if not all of the other teams go through the same sorts of problems.  I take some comfort in the fact that the defense again played better on Saturday night, especially in the secondary.  They also again held the opposing running backs to manageable yardage, and they forced a game-changing turnover at the goal line when Krys Barnes knocked the ball out of the outstretched hands of Teddy Bridgewater as he attempted to dive over the line for a touchdown.

Anyway, it is now clear that the Packers can secure the number one seed in a number of ways.  The easiest is to beat the Bears in Week 17, in which case it becomes irrelevant whether they win or lose against the Titans on Sunday night, and it is also irrelevant what any other team does in the final two weeks.  Unfortunately, the Packers can't know for sure this week that they will beat the Bears next week.  So they need to play their starters, play hard, and beat the Titans.  Now, it should be noted that if the Rams beat the Seahawks earlier on Sunday, then a Packers win against the Titans will secure the number one seed for the Packers Sunday night.  

I have an uncomfortable feeling about this game.  I suspect that the Seahawks will beat the Rams, resulting in a letdown for the Packers, who might then be a little too focused on the fact that "all" they need to do is beat the Bears the following week, and thus not play well against the Titans.  Derrick Henry can almost single-handedly win a game.  I am hoping the Packers will get it done, but I could easily see the Packers dropping this game.

Another Breed of Cat Coming to Town Saturday Night

Adams TD, Photo by Leon Halip, AP

The Packers' win against the Lions on Sunday (31-24) was a momentous one, because it clinched a playoff spot for the Packers, as well as the NFC North division title.  It also moved the Packers into the number one seed in the NFC, because of the Saints having been upset by the Eagles.  The Packers are now in the driver's seat, since they control their own destiny.  

Maybe you don't remember those years where the Packers had to play their last game and then wait to see if the Vikings, or the Rams, or whoever, would lose to let the Packers sneak into the playoffs.  I do remember them.  So I savor the fact that the Packers have clinched the division with three weeks to go.  It is worth noting that the toughest game left on the schedule for either the Packers or the Saints is this week's Kansas City at New Orleans game.  Assuming that the Chiefs win (as they are favored to do), this would give the Packers a little cushion in case they stumble in one of their final three games.  

Meanwhile, there were more milestones on Sunday.  Davante Adams became the first player ever to have 90+ catches, over 1100 yards, and 14 TDs over the first 13 games of the season.  Which sounds great enough just as it is.  And then you stop to realize that he only played in 11 games.  And for Rodgers, his milestone of the day is that he is the first player ever to have 39+ TDs, and fewer than 5 interceptions, after 13 weeks of a season.  I know, these records being set are a little funky - 14 TDs?  39 TDs?  13 games?  These are not nice round numbers.  But still, it says something about the monster year these two stars are having.

The first half was not all that satisfying, being that the Packers went into halftime tied at 14.  Time of possession was almost even, and the Lions had more passing yards than the Packers did in the half.  But the third quarter was dominated by the Packers.  They possessed the ball for over 13 and a half minutes, allowing only a 3 and out to the Lions.  The Packers scored once in the third quarter, and again early in the fourth quarter, to make it 28-14.  At that point, the game was under control.  

Except it wasn't, really.  Remember that fourth quarter slump problem we have discussed in prior blog posts?  I had it in mind, and was concerned that the Lions would claw their way back into the game.  Our Lions' fan friend, Al, threw out a prediction that the Lions could score a touchdown on the ensuing drive if there were 5 penalties on the Packers.  Sure enough, that is exactly what happened, as the Lions drove 75 yards on 13 plays, with 5 penalties on the Packers.  Well, the Packers did manage to keep it together enough to win the game, but not until they endured a scary onside kick, that had to be reviewed to confirm that the ball was out of bounds before it was recovered by the Lions.  I tend to see this as another special teams issue.  The onside kick almost played out like the one in a Dallas game earlier this year, where the receiving team (the Falcons) just watched the ball until it had gone 10 yards and was then recovered by the Cowboys.  Apparently it may be illegal for the receiving team to intentionally bat or kick the ball out of bounds.  But as the ball gets to 8 or 9 yards downfield, the receiving team can no longer afford to just watch it spin and hope for the best.  They have to pick it up, or better yet, dive towards it and "inadvertently" push it out of bounds.

Fresh off the victory over the Lions, another ferocious feline team comes to Lambeau Field Saturday night.  The 4-9 Panthers now come to Green Bay for a game that means a lot more to the 10-3 Packers, because of their quest to retain the only NFC bye in the playoffs.  I was very concerned about this game a few weeks ago, because I assumed that Christian McCaffrey would be back and would run all over the Packers.  But now it looks like McCaffrey won't play, and besides, as I have been saying for a couple of weeks, I think the Packers defense is looking better despite their custom of taking some time off in the middle of the fourth quarter.  Mike Davis can still do some damage, but he is not the difference-maker that McCaffrey is.  The Packers just need to take care of business, come out without any injuries, and with any luck they will find themselves a full game ahead of the Saints (plus the tiebreaker) after the Chiefs get done with the Saints.

After Grounding the Eagles, Can the Packers Tame the Lions?

Record Setters, Photo by Dan Powers, USA Today

The Packers improved their record to 9-3 in beating the Eagles, 30-16, on Sunday.  That is worthy of a little celebration.  It is certainly a better record than I imagined that the Packers would have at this point of the season, and it virtually assures the Packers a playoff spot, and makes another division crown and a home game in the playoffs highly likely.  

It was also a game with lots of significant milestones.  Davante Adams caught a TD for the seventh game in a row, tying the record set long ago by Don Hutson.  Aaron Rodgers threw his 400th TD pass, joining an elite group of 6 other QBs to reach that mark.  And Rodgers got to 400 in the fewest number of games, 193.  Robert Tonyan caught a TD for the third game in a row, solidifying his position as the best TE the Packers have.  Rodgers became the first QB in NFL history to throw 35 TD passes in 5 seasons.  Adams reached 1000 yards for the second time in his career.  And the Packers became the first team in NFL history to reach 800 wins (regular season + playoffs).  However . . 

However, it is hard to ignore the bad taste left in the mouth by what happened in the middle of the fourth quarter.  The Packers had just kicked a field goal to make it 23-3, and the game seemed well in hand.  Easy for me to say that, sitting on the couch with no responsibilities for blocking or tackling.  Unfortunately, apparently the Packers thought the game was in hand, too.  So the defense slow-walked their way through a 9 play, 73 yard drive to make it 23-10.  Then the offense went 3 and out, and the special teams gave up another kick return touchdown, this time on a 73 yard punt return, making it 23-16 (the extra point was missed).  Then the offense went 3 and out again, giving the ball back to the Eagles with almost 5 minutes left on the clock and plenty of time to go down and tie it up.  Fortunately, the defense finally awakened from their early evening nap and forced a punt.  The offense, or at least Aaron Jones and his blockers MVS and Bakhtiari, also woke up, and when Jones raced 77 yards for a touchdown, to make it 30-16, the game was finally really in hand.

I know that you can get away with this kind of crap (most of the time, anyway) when you are playing a dysfunctional 3-7-1 team that is falling apart before our eyes, but could you get away with that against a better team?  That remains to be seen.  I can't make any excuses for the special teams.  Maybe Tavon Austin will bring some special teams receiving spark starting this week, since Tyler Ervin has been put on IR.  And as for the kicking part of special teams, I don't know what to do other than to pray that we don't see J.K. Scott trying to make a tackle again for the rest of the year.  Or (and this is only half in jest) have Mason Crosby do the punting, since he at least knows how to tackle!

More and more, I am coming around to the view that the defense is a different story.  Yes, they had a lapse on one drive in the fourth quarter, and that should not happen.  But they held the Eagles' running backs to under 100 yards, which might be the first time the Packers have done that all season.  And they certainly applied lots of pressure to Wentz, and to Hurts after he was brought in, sacking them a total of 7 times, and forcing an interception late in the game to slam the door shut.  Obviously, it helps that Carson Wentz is both slow and somewhat indecisive now, a bad combination for a quarterback under pressure.  But the bigger point is that I think Mike Pettine is becoming a bit more aggressive in his calls on defense, especially late in the game, and it is starting to show up in turnovers and sacks.  

I would like to see them build on this approach in the remaining games, so that the Packers can go into the playoffs on a high note.  I have no worries about the offense in this second year under LaFleur.  The Packers lead the league in points scored, and that is no fluke.  I am less concerned than some about the defense, and hope that Pettine continues to be more aggressive, as I think he has at times over the last few weeks.  Special teams will continue to terrify me, but hopefully they can keep their act mostly together.  It would be helpful if the Packers just never have to punt the ball!

The Packers play the Lions this week.  On paper, the Packers should win the game.  But that was true against the Vikings a few weeks ago, too.  And the Lions showed signs of life in orchestrating a comeback win over the Bears last week.  At 5-7, the Lions are two games back in the wild card chase, and can't afford to drop further back.  So they will be motivated to pull off the upset, and much has been made this week about how the Packers have been slow starters against the Lions, at home and away.  It was just last year that the Packers never led against the Lions until the final play of both games, ending up 2-0 for the season, but they were two plays away from being 0-2.  I want to see a fast start on offense, solid and aggressive play on defense, and no more special teams mishaps.

Celebrating 100 Wins Against the Bears

Opportunistic Defense, Photo by Dan Powers, USA Today

On Sunday Night Football, with a relative handful of fans finally back in the stands, the Packers beat the Bears, 41-25, to get their 100th all-time win against the Bears (including their playoff win back in the 2010 Super Bowl season).  The record is now 100-95, with 6 ties.  

I can remember back in the 1980's when the Packers were looking up to see the Bears way in front of them in the all-time win-loss records.  But that was before Brett Favre and now Aaron Rodgers.  If you look at the historical records by decade, there had been only one decade in which the Packers won more of the matchups than the Bears.  You got it, it was the 1960's.  But then came the 1990's, 2000's, 2010's and now the 2020's.  Over the most recent four decades, the Packers have beaten the Bears to the tune of 43 wins against 19 losses.  This dominance won't last forever, so I am glad to see the Packers get a little cushion now, while they still can.

One thing I liked a lot in the Sunday Night game was the re-emergence of the jet sweep motion.  In the several games that Tyler Ervin has been out with injuries, it seemed to me that the Packers were making much less use of this motion, and it was having a negative effect on the offense.  Sunday night, it was back (especially in the first half as they were building their lead), even without Tyler Ervin, and the results of this misdirection could be seen in how unstoppable the offense looked at times.  The jet sweep motion creates just enough hesitation on defense to create some momentary openings.  

Speaking of the jet sweep motion, whether Ervin is ready to return this week or not, I think the Packers just got somebody new who can be an effective jet sweep motion player.  With the signing of Tavon Austin, the Packers now have another speedy wide receiver, a new jet sweeper, and a likely kick returner (since the Packers waived Darrius Shepherd in order to make room for Austin).  Once or twice a game, I would just love to see MVS and Austin line up at opposite ends, take off like bats out of hell for the end zone, and see what happens.  Maybe one of them gets open for a long TD, but maybe they just pull enough DBs with them to open up the shorter passing game.  

Back to the Bears game for one last comment - I think the much-maligned defense has looked better over the last few weeks, doing a lot of swarming to the ball.  Darnell Savage had two interceptions, and I think the last two weeks are probably the best two weeks of his career.  I know they gave up a lot of points against the Colts last week, but let's not forget that there were 4 turnovers, and a lot of those points were attributable to offensive mistakes more so than defensive ineptitude.  Against the Bears, I know the final box score shows that the Packers gave up 25 points, but the score was 41-10 going into the 4th quarter.  For better or for worse, I think Mike Pettine's style in this setting is to go into slow down mode, keeping everything in front of the defense, giving up all the short plays they want, and guarding against quick scores.  You can denigrate this by calling it the "prevent defense" if you want, but when you lead by 31 with one quarter to go, that can be an effective means of sealing the win.  

Watching the much-delayed Ravens at Steelers game on Wednesday afternoon (!), I was reminded what great defenses look like.  Going into the game, these were the only two defenses to have allowed less than 200 points so far this year.  The Packers haven't had a defense like that since the Super Bowl year of 2010.  I don't see any chance that the Packers defense will magically turn into a great defense by the time the playoffs roll around.  But can they continue to make some key stops and generate a few turnovers each game, to make life a little easier on the offense?  They have recently, and I hope they can keep it up.

Anyway, the Eagles arrive in town on Sunday for another game that the Packers, on paper, should win, and win easily.  The Eagles' offense looked pretty terrible Monday night against the Seahawks, but the defense looked like it can create problems, at times, for opposing offenses.  This will be the second week in a row in which a desperate team is coming to Lambeau Field.  The Bears needed a win, as a practical matter, to stay in contention in the division.  The Eagles, at 3-7-1, should not be in the playoff hunt at all, but somehow they are.  In the NFC LEast, 3-7-1 is half a game out of first place.  So winning the division is a real possibility, but only if the Eagles can win some more games while the other woeful NFC East teams drop a few.  So beating the Packers would be a big deal for the Eagles, and if they get the smell of an upset in their nostrils, who knows?  The Packers should not do anything to encourage them.  They should put up a bunch of points fast, just like they did against the Bears, and then keep the foot on the gas until it is too late for a comeback.