Packers Preparing for Short Turnaround Week

Old Friends Getting Together for Some Football

Game 6 for the Packers turned out to be primarily another Davante Adams show.  When it was announced that Bakhtiari, Tyler Ervin and Aaron Jones would all be out on offense, along with Kevin King, Darnell Savage, and Tyler Lancaster on defense, I admit to being a little concerned.  I knew that the Texans' defense isn't that good, despite having playmakers like J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus.  But still, how many of the Packers' offensive stars can be out before the offense just doesn't work?  And on defense, I know that the Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason, but the Texans offense still scored 36 points last week and took the Titans to overtime before succumbing.  Could the Packers really keep the Texans' offense under control with a depleted secondary?

Turns out I need not have worried.  Billy Turner took over for David Bakhtiari and provided good protection.  Rodgers was not sacked, although he was pressured and hit from time to time.  Jamaal Williams, in replacing Aaron Jones, reminded us that he is a high quality running back, even if he doesn't have Jones' explosiveness.  Williams ended up with 114 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.  Every time the Packers needed a third down catch to continue a drive, Davante Adams was there, ending up with 13 catches for 196 yards and 2 TDs.  

On defense, to my eye the career debut of inside inside LB Kamal Martin was a positive factor.  He was one of the team leaders in tackles.  The defense pretty consistently applied pressure to DeShaun Watson and sacked him three times.  The defensive backs as a group kept Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks under control, with Alexander primarily shadowing Fuller, and Josh Jackson covering Cooks.  Only our old friend Randall Cobb was able to do much damage, catching 8 passes for 95 yards.  I doubt this would happen, but with all the talk about how the Packers should acquire a veteran receiver, wouldn't it be fun if the Packers traded to bring Randall Cobb back?  This might have been a very different Texans team if they had not traded away DeAndre Hopkins.  The final score was GB 35, Houston 20.  Another 30+ points on offense and another double digit win.

Creative use of motion and misdirection is one of the hallmarks of the LaFleur offense.  Until the last two weeks, a player streaking down the line of scrimmage pre-snap was seen a lot.  But Tyler Ervin was the primary runner of the jet sweep motion, and for whatever reason, in his absence the Packers have made much less use of this motion.  But speaking of creative use of motion, LaFleur's former mentor, Sean McVay, pulled an interesting play out of his hat Monday night, when McVay's Rams played the Bears.  Inside the Bears' 5 yard line in the first quarter, the Rams huddled up, and then sprinted to the line of scrimmage, snapped the ball almost immediately, and the play went for a touchdown.  It is the opposite of Rodgers' normal M.O.  He likes to study the defense, noting among other things how the defense reacts to any motion by the Packers, and seeing what he can read about the defense's intentions based on their movements before the snap.  Here, the situation is reversed.  By the Rams sprinting to the line and snapping the ball immediately, the defense has no opportunity to see and react to the offensive formation.  The Bears were caught flat-footed and gave up a touchdown.  I don't remember ever having seen the Packers run a play like this, other than maybe in a two minute drill.  But just as a change of pace, once or twice a game, this would be an intriguing and winning innovation.

This Sunday, the Packers host the Minnesota Vikings, who now find themselves in last place in the North at 1-5 and going nowhere.  And then four days later, the Packers head to Santa Clara to face the injury-riddled but still formidable 49ers.  I am concerned that this makes the Vikings game a bit of a trap game.  There is no reason the Packers should lose to the Vikings.  But there are lots of reasons that the Packers might lose to the 49ers.  And if, in the course of preparing and practicing for two games in short order, the Packers look past the Vikings to worry about the 49ers game, they could easily lose both games.  It is not just blowing smoke to say that the Vikings usually play the Packers very tough, and few coaches have more experience preparing for the Packers than Mike Zimmer.  Let's not forget that the Vikings still have Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin ("Could Have Had Him") Jefferson, so even though they have not played well, they are still dangerous.  And of course the Vikings' Anthony Barr broke Rodgers' collarbone 3 years ago.  He is out for the season this year, but I still would think that the Packers want to get the ball out quickly and on rhythm.

I heard LaFleur, in his Thursday press conference, say that they are not thinking about the 49ers, that the 49ers are the farthest thing from his mind.  I don't believe that.  I have to assume that at least a skeletal (how is that for a Halloween week reference) game plan has been put together.  But anyway, I hope he is truthfully relaying that the Packers are not looking past the Vikings.

Buccaneers Keelhaul the Packers in Tampa

Unwelcome Sight, Photo by Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images

It is hard to know what to say about last week's stinkeroo game against the Buccaneers.  When you jump off to a 10 point lead, how do you give up 38 unanswered points to a not-that-great Buccaneers team?  Does this mean that every time the Packers face a tough, physical defense, they will fold and slink home with their tails between their legs?  That is kind of what happened last year, against the Chargers, the 49ers and then the 49ers again in the NFC Championship game.  

There is a possible difference, at least in my mind.  Last year, the Packers never looked smooth to me.  They had a great regular season record, at 13-3, but many of those wins were close games (kind of like the Bears this year?).  Eight of the 13 wins were one possession games, including both Lions games, both Bears games, and one of the Vikings games.  Of course, the most ridiculous examples were the Lions games, where the Packers never led in either game until the final play of each game, winning field goals in both cases.  And how many times last year did we see a lack of precision?  Too many throwaways, or passes in the flat that never made it to the receiver, or long passes that were overthrown or went through the hands of the receiver.  I skimmed through my blog posts from last year, and I found phrases like "not a statement win," "ugly win," "unsatisfying win," and "two good quarters out of eight," making the point they really only had two good quarters in their first two games, but that was enough to have a 2-0 record.  Looking back on it, the Packers went 13-3, in some ways, despite their lack of precision and smoothness on offense.  

For the first four weeks of this season, the Packers were just the opposite on offense.  They looked great, Rodgers looked like the Rodgers of maybe 2010 or 2011, and he was an early candidate for league MVP.  Our biggest worry, as fans, was the defense.  Could they just make a few stops per game, and/or generate a turnover, and allow the offense to work its magic?   I suppose you could argue, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the defense did its job on Sunday.  They only gave up 24 points, while the offense gave up the other 14 on the actual pick-six, and the almost pick-six.  Any other game this year, the offense would have scored 30 plus points and would have won the game.

But last Sunday, it wasn't just the two interceptions.  It was the lack of pre-snap motion with Tyler Ervin out of the lineup.  It was Rodgers not looking comfortable back in the pocket.  It was Rodgers double (and triple and once quadruple) clutching, rather than throwing the ball in rhythm and on time.  

So which was the anomaly?  Was it the Buccaneers game?  Or was it the first four games against (in hindsight) some not very strong opponents?  I guess we will find out soon enough.  The Texans are not very good, with their 1-5 record, but they gave the undefeated Titans all they could handle last Sunday before losing, 42-36.  And the Packers look as if they will be without Tyler Ervin (can't somebody else run the jet sweep?), and probably David Bakhtiari as well.  Plus now Aaron Jones has popped up on the injury report.  Several people have made the semi-in-jest comment that the Packers play better without Davante Adams.  Well, they will have Adams, but maybe without these other weapons they can return to winning ways.  Apparently the Packers have not had a two game losing streak under Matt LaFleur.  Let's just go with that as a good reason to predict that the Packers look much better after last week's embarrassment, and come away with a victory.  

Unbeaten Packers Start Their Second Quarter

Monday Night Stud, photo by Evan Siegle, Packers.com

Before we get to some comments on last week's win against the Falcons, and some comments on the upcoming game against the Buccaneers, I feel as if I have to comment on what a terrible disappointment Week 5 (the Packers' bye week) has been. Not only did a legitimate NFL star, Dak Prescott, suffer a catastrophic injury on Sunday, but the games I cared about most went the wrong way. 

I had hoped, during the Packers' bye week, that the Packers would get some help in other games. Instead, on Thursday night, the Bears won a game against the Buccaneers that they could easily have lost. The Bears even got a big assist from a "senior moment" by Tom Brady, when he lost track of the down before turning the ball over as the Buccaneers were trying to get in position for a potential game winning field goal. The Bears' 20-19 win left them at 4-1, half a game behind the Packers. 

Then, on Sunday night, the Vikings, to my great amazement, were in position to upset the Seahawks, which would have left the Packers as the only unbeaten team in the NFC. But as the second half progressed, I just knew that the Vikings were going to blow it. And indeed they did. Many will focus on Mike Zimmer's decision to go for the kill shot at the end of the game, when it was 4th and 1. A first down there would have effectively sealed the win for the Vikings, 26-21. But an "easy" field goal (easy, except it was raining pretty hard at the time) would have made it an 8 point game, meaning the Seahawks would not only have to drive down the field for a touchdown, but also get the 2 point conversion, just to tie the game and take it to overtime. Instead, the Vikings did not convert, and the Seahawks' ensuing touchdown won the game for them, rather than just giving them a chance to tie the game up. I can't really criticize Zimmer for the call, though, because I am generally in favor of being more aggressive in trying to secure a win. As a matter of fact, there is a statistical argument that you should go for it on 4th and 1 from any place on the field.  The Seahawks' win brought them to 5-0, half a game ahead of the Packers.

Anyway, getting back to the Monday night game against the Falcons, you figured going in that the 3-0 Packers should beat the 0-3 Falcons.  But the problem for the Packers was the injuries, especially at receiver.  Allen Lazard was on IR after surgery, Marcedes Lewis was out, and Davante Adams thought he was ready, but the Packers decided to hold him out anyway.  Plus Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark were both out on defense.  Could the Packers handle the Falcons without three starting receivers?  Enter Robert, "Big Bob" Tonyan.  Or, as someone called him on the NFL Network, "I, Tonyan," noting that he took a figurative tire iron to the kneecaps of the Falcons' defense.  This was a real coming out party for Tonyan, who caught all 6 passes thrown his way for 98 yards and 3 touchdowns.  

You might wonder when the Packers last had a tight end with 3 TD catches in a game.  It turns out this is only the third time in Packers history when this has happened.  Keith Jackson got the hat trick in the 1996 Super Bowl year, and Jermichael Finley had one in 2011, en route to a 15-1 season.  So Tonyan is in pretty elite company among Packers tight ends.  When Davante Adams and Allen Lazard return, it is doubtful that Tonyan will have more 3 TD games.  But having him around can only make the receiving game more explosive going forward.  Other tight ends have had their moments in the years since Jermichael Finley was lost to injury.  But nobody has been a consistent, elite performer.  You can't say, based on Monday night's game, that Tonyan is there yet.  But going into week 5, Tonyan was tied with Mike Evans for most receiving touchdowns in the league.  If Tonyan can even be a reliable contributor, this could be a huge plus for an already potent Packers offense.

Now that this week's bye is over, the rested and healthier Packers will play in hot Tampa against the Buccaneers, who have had 10 days of rest leading up to the game with the Packers.  I am not sure what to make of the Buccaneers.  They are 3-2, in a bunch at the top of the NFC South.  The two losses were to the Bears and Saints, while the wins were against the Panthers, Broncos and Chargers.  They have a very good (top 5) run defense, but the Packers are much better on both rushing and passing offense.  While the Packers have zero interceptions this year, the Buccaneers have four, so there is a better chance of picking off Brady than Rodgers.  They have some good offensive weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, and of course Brady.  They just have not been getting as much production out of them as have the Packers.  

Going into the season, I would not have predicted that the Packers would be 4-0 after one quarter of the season.  Of course, the only one of the four teams they beat with a record above .500 was the Saints.  But the Packers have looked unstoppable on offense, and "good enough" on defense to keep them in the games and let the offense win.  What will the second quarter bring?  At the moment, the next four games only have one team above .500, the Buccaneers, followed by three below .500, the Texans, the Vikings and the 49ers, who will present a big challenge to the Packers regardless of their record.  

Home field advantage will continue to mean almost nothing in the second quarter, even if there are some fans in the stands as will be the case in Tampa this week.    Weather can still be a home field issue, and while it is mostly in the 50's in Wisconsin this week, the projected high temperature in Tampa for Sunday is 88 degrees.  Because of this, I think the Tampa Bay game and the 49ers game are the two where the Packers have the best chance of being beaten.  While I could see the Packers losing the Buccaneers game, I don't think it will happen.  I think, with the likely return of Davante Adams and Kenny Clark, the pass-catching abilities of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, and the emergence of Tonyan as a threat, the Packers will be too much for Brady and the Buccaneers.

Will Packers Stay Undefeated Before the Bye?

Lazard Catches a Bomb, Photo by Butch Dill, AP

"What do Football and Jazz Have in Common? . . . Both become elevated to the sublime at moments of chaos that follow a breakdown, when instinct and improvisation take over. . . . Melody, rhythm and harmony become speed, agility and pure execution.  Come for the mastery, stay for the improvisation.”

Wynton Marsalis, in the NBC Intro to Sunday Night Football

As a person who loves both football and jazz, the Wynton Marsalis quote really spoke to me, although I had no idea at the time how chaotic this week would become (see below).  On the bright side, speaking of "speed, agility, and pure execution," after 3 weeks, not only have the Packers scored more offensive points than any Packers team in history in the first 3 games of the season, they also lead the league in points scored.  And it is not just scoring points.  The Packers have also been very careful with the football, giving up no turnovers in the first three weeks.  Never before has a Packers team played the first three games of the season without a single turnover.  And never in NFL history has a team scored at least 35 points, with no turnovers, in each of the first three games.  

While they were also 3-0 last year at this time, they had only scored 58 points after three games, while this year they have scored 122.  So there really isn't any doubt that the offense is running more smoothly this year, after the Packers beat the Saints Sunday night by the score of 37-30.  That evinces speed, agility, and execution.  It was particularly gratifying to see other players step up, in the absence of Davante Adams, and make plays.  The top 3, in my mind, were Allen Lazard, Jace Sternberger, and Big Bob Tonyan.  If Lazard were just a hair faster, he would have had two long bomb touchdowns, but even so he ended up with 6 catches for 146 yards and a short touchdown.

Speaking of long bomb touchdowns, on re-watching the game, there really is no doubt.  Drew Brees either can't, or won't, throw the long ball anymore.  I don't think he had a single throw more than 18 yards downfield.  He gets credited for a 52 yard pass Sunday night, but it was really about a 2 yard pass to Kamara with 5 or 6 broken tackles.

The defense again had a very mixed day.  There were more missed tackles on Kamara's long touchdown reception than I want to see in a whole game.  All I can say is that he is one of the top couple, two, three running backs in the league (if you have read this far, I hope you appreciate the Wisconsin syntax), so making people miss is what he does.  But when it counted, the defense again generated a turnover, this one by Za'Darius Smith, when he popped the ball out of Taysom Hill's hand and then recovered the ball himself.  Many of us still can't get over how the Packers screwed up with Taysom Hill a few years ago.  He was making a lot of noise in the Packers' training camp, and instead of putting him on the active roster, they tried to sneak him onto the practice squad.  Oddly enough, the Saints must have had some video equipment around their facility (who knew?), because they saw what Hill could do, signed him off the Packers' practice squad, and he has been a Swiss Army Knife for the Saints ever since.  On this day, he gave up the pivotal fumble that really turned the game back in the Packers' direction.  But he is still a hell of a player, even if he was never likely to be the heir apparent to either Rodgers or Brees, and I wish he were still on the Packers' team.

I started writing this post earlier in the week.  And then came the chaos.  The star of Sunday's game, Allen Lazard, injured his core, required surgery, and is expected to be out for multiple weeks.  Is Adams ready to return Monday night?  If not, what then?  Then the Steelers-Titans game was postponed for Covid reasons until later in the season.  And now, Saturday morning, it has been announced that Cam Newton tested positive, is out for Week 4 as a result, and Patriots-Chiefs is now postponed until Monday or Tuesday, which could be the first step toward postponing it until later this year.  At what point does the league conclude that the whole thing is just not viable, wiping out the promising start of the Packers and other teams?  The title of this post asks whether the Packers will stay undefeated before the bye.  Now maybe we have to ask if the season will even last until the bye next week.  That is the "chaos that follow(s) a breakdown" (or breakout in this instance).  Let's just hope that football, somehow, "become(s) elevated to the sublime" out of the chaos.