One More Win Was All the Packers Needed

John, Mary, Sam, and Your Humble Blogger at the Game

Looking forward, the Packers need two more wins.  But looking back, one more win in the regular season would have made an enormous difference.  If the Packers had won one more game (and still won in the divisional round) they would be hosting the NFC Championship game on Sunday, instead of taking yet another dreaded road trip to the west coast.  Let's stipulate that the Packers were not about to turn around either the 49ers game or the Chargers game, both in November.  Both of them were out of hand pretty early.  But what about that Eagles game, on a Thursday night in September?  The Packers failed, twice, in an attempt to tie up that game in the fourth quarter.  That game could easily have gone the other way, either in four quarters, or in overtime.  What a difference that would have made.  Or, if the Seahawks had won one more game, by beating the 49ers in week 17, the Packers would have ended up with the number one seed.  So if the last two teams left were the Packers and 49ers, once again the game would have been played at Lambeau Field.

The 49ers have turned into a great team this year, which was just as surprising to me as the Packers ending up with a 13-3 record.  They looked dominating in dispatching the Packers in November in Santa Clara, and they looked dominating in beating the Vikings in Santa Clara last Saturday.  "On any given Sunday," and all that, but I certainly would have liked the Packers' chances better if they were hosting this game in Lambeau Field.

I went to the game on Sunday night, along with family members John, Sam and Mary, from left to right in the photo above.  The Packers played a great first half in putting the Seahawks in a deep hole, 21-3.  Call it another ugly win if you want to, but the Packers went to sleep on offense and defense for parts of the third quarter, and the Seahawks got close enough to make the fans, in the chilly stands or in comfy living rooms, pretty nervous.  Russell Wilson was really like a magic man out there, escaping most of the attempted sacks and making positive things (for the Seahawks) happen.  Sometimes quarterbacks escape because of shoddy missed tackles, and sometimes they escape by their own awesome elusiveness.  Russell Wilson had awesome elusiveness.  A timely late sack by Preston Smith, and a debatable decision to punt on the next play by Pete Carroll, were enough to snuff out the comeback, and the Packers won the game, 28-23.

Oh, and of course there was the controversial first down catch by Jimmy Graham, that allowed the Packers to kneel on the ball to end the game.  I have to admit, from our end zone seats, I thought Graham was short.  But we didn't even have a TV yellow line on the field to go by.  How many times have the announcers reminded us that the yellow line is unofficial?  Well, I think we finally saw an example where the unofficial nature of the yellow line made a real-world difference.  After the game, none other than Davante Adams himself tweeted out the picture below, showing clearly that the TV yellow line was off - the yellow line was just inside the 36 yard line, while the first down marker itself was outside the 36.  So those pictures of Graham's helmet on the yellow line are beside the point, and it doesn't matter how furious Pete Carroll was, the first down call properly stood as called, despite the mysterious appearance of late footage causing the referees to take a second look.

Tweet by Davante Adams

The Packers have lots to fix from their November debacle, if they want to beat the 49ers this time.  Ryan Wood of the Press-Gazette has identified 10 plays that made a huge difference in that game, all in the first half.  Many of those plays are quite avoidable, or flukes that might not be repeated, like the iffy personal foul call on Davante Adams, the Rodgers fumble leading to the first touchdown, the dropped passes, the penalties prolonging 49er drives, Bryan Bulaga getting knocked out of the game, etc.  Change some of those plays around, and the Packers don't end up in that kind of a hole, and maybe have at least a chance to make a game of it.

So is there reason to expect a better result this time around?  I liked a lot of what I saw on Sunday night.  The Packers scored quickly, and had three touchdowns in the first half.  If they can do that again, they will either be leading, or at a minimum in the game, by the time halftime rolls around.  Rodgers was way more accurate than he has been in some recent games; he seemed to stick more to the LaFleur game plan with short and quick passes, picking his spots for the occasional longer passes.  I only counted about half a dozen long passes down the field Sunday night.  They resulted in 2 Adams TDs, a pass interference penalty against the Seahawks, an overthrow, a long Jimmy Graham catch, and the long pass to Adams that almost iced the game.  Not bad results when you use the long pass more judiciously!  And the receivers were catching the ball Sunday night.  A couple of the Jimmy Graham catches, and several others to other receivers, are passes that might have been dropped in other games, but the receivers seemed to finally have their acts together, and they caught almost all of the catchable balls.

I am not overly worried about the defense.  They didn't have a good game against the 49ers in November, and gave up way too many points, but in other games since, they have held their regular season opponents to 20 or fewer points, and only gave up 23 to the Seahawks despite the magic of Russell Wilson.  If it is true, as the players contend, that they were able to get on the same page after the 49ers game, then the defense should have a better game Sunday night. 

It is true that the 49ers have more weapons on offense than the Seahawks, at this stage of the game, with the Seahawks' first 3 running backs on IR.  And the Seahawks certainly do not have the equivalent of George Kittle, who can take over a game.  But, on the other hand, Jimmy Garoppolo threw more than double the interceptions thrown by Russell Wilson during the year, so the Packers may well be able to grab an extra possession or two from the 49ers.  Look, the 49ers are heavy favorites in the game for a good reason.  But I think the Packers have a real chance to pull off the upset.  Go Pack Go!

Seahawks-Packers, in the Playoffs at Lambeau Field

Graphic by the Green Bay Packers

Well, I certainly expected the Saints to beat the Vikings in the Wild Card round, which would have meant that the Saints would come to Green Bay.  My wish list also included the Seahawks beating the Eagles, as they did, in which case the task of knocking off the 49ers would have fallen to the Seahawks.  But the Vikings, quite impressively, managed to upset the Saints in New Orleans, meaning the Vikings go to San Francisco, and the Seahawks come to Green Bay. 

This week I am obviously rooting for a Packers win, but also for one final upset by the Vikings, of the 49ers.  (It takes a special circumstance to cause me to root for the Vikings.)  Those two results would result in the NFC Championship Game being held in Green Bay the following week.

If you feel as if the Packers' defense has been performing better down the stretch, you are right.  I wasn't aware of some of the details until I watched Tuesday's Packers Daily, which clued me in to the fact that in each of the last 5 games, the Packers have had at least one interception, have gotten 2.5 sacks, have not allowed a 100 yard rusher, and have not given up more than 20 points.  That is a recipe to win games, and of course the Packers have won those 5 games, just not convincingly enough for most fans, including me.  The Seahawks, on the other hand, have lost 3 of their last 5 games, so they are not exactly looking like world-beaters, either.  The Packers are 7-1 at home this year, but the Seahawks are 8-1 on the road.  Somebody is going to end up with loss number 2 on their season record.

The matchup with the Seahawks is an interesting one, with lots of history, some of it quite painful to Packers fans.  In the last 8 games between these two teams, the home team has won every game.  And yes, that includes the epic Packers collapse in the NFC Championship game in January, 2015, and the "Fail Mary" game with the substitute refs in September of 2012.  The two teams have also played two playoff games at Lambeau Field, the "Al Harris/Matt Hasselbeck" game in January, 2004, and the "Snow Globe" game in January of 2008 (Favre's last win as a Packers player).  The Packers won both those games.  I remember them well, since I attended both games.

My daughter punished herself this week by watching the NFC Championship game from 2015.  I didn't have the heart to watch that game.  So I watched instead the last game between the two in Lambeau Field, in September of 2017, which the Packers won, 17-9.  It was only two years ago, but it is amazing how much turnover there has been since then.  Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Clay Matthews were all playing.  So was Jimmy Graham, playing for the Seahawks (Graham dropped what would have been a first down pass in the 4th quarter, perhaps a harbinger of things to come).  And even Eddie Lacy made a cameo appearance, for the Seahawks.  And of course the Packers didn't have Aaron Jones or the "Smith Brothers," who undoubtedly will make their presence known on Sunday night. 

Rodgers looked a lot more accurate than he has recently, but the Packers didn't have the running game that they do now.  The offense sputtered in the first half, which ended with Seattle leading 3-0.  They looked more efficient in scoring 17 points in the second half, while the defense did some bending but not breaking, giving up only field goals.  Maybe the best part was watching the offense run out the last 6 minutes to preserve the 17-9 win.  Bottom line: I saw nothing in that game to make me think the Packers can't beat the Seahawks again. 

My advice to the Packers would be pretty much the same as I gave last week.  If the Packers win this game, it will be on the strength of the defense and the legs of Aaron Jones.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't need to carry the team on his back to get this win, and I hope he doesn't have to try.  They need to be aggressive on defense, emphasize the run, emphasize the short, quick-release pass until the defense tightens up, and then go for the occasional long ball.  The Packers released a picture Tuesday of an assistant coach wearing boxing gloves, trying to punch the ball out of the hands of runners.  Maybe they do that every week, but I have never seen a picture of it before.  I am interpreting that as a new emphasis in light of recent fumble problems.  I hope they have also been drilling with Rodgers to take the quick completion over standing back there waiting for things to develop, and to emphasize him throwing with his feet set whenever possible.  If they get and stay aggressive on defense, and they play within the offense as it was designed, they should win this game.

Packers Get a Bye Week to Figure Out Their Problems

Crosby's Game Winner, Photo by Rey Del Rio, Getty Images

We watched the game with our Lions fan friend Al, and he was assuring us all game long, especially as the Lions built their lead in the first half, that the Lions would collapse in the second half, and the Packers would win it on a score in the last minute or so. [Editor's note: Al points out that he actually said the Lions would lose in the last 3 seconds. I stand corrected.]  Now that is some serious fatalism, but as he said, "that is how the Lions play this year."  And sure enough, the Packers never led during the entire game, until the final play, when a Crosby field goal sailed through to give the Packers the win, and in the process, a bye week, by the score of 23-20.  And this was a perfect bookend win for the Packers, since in the Week 6 matchup with the Lions, the Packers again never led until the final play of the game, with Crosby's field goal that night giving the Packers a 23-22 win.

For the last couple weeks, I had been trying to talk myself into the proposition that division games are always close and hard-fought, and therefore there was no problem with winning in a bit of an ugly fashion.  But getting beat all day by a 3-11-1 team, with 17 players on IR including their starting quarterback and other starters, is really putting my proposition to the test.  Can we continue to make the argument that there is  no problem after Sunday's game?  I found it pretty disappointing, and by halftime I thought the Packers would lose the game, have to play again this week, and I was not even sure I liked their chances against the Vikings, which is the team they would have played in the Wild Card round.

But then, as has been the case many times this year, they staged their comeback and won the game.  Bye secured, week off, possibility of the number one seed was still in the air until Sunday night.  No problem?  I think there obviously is a problem.  In recent weeks it has been really clear to me that there is something wrong with Rodgers.  He is missing throw after throw that he could have made in his sleep in the past.  He usually makes enough throws to keep us close, and then either he, or Aaron Jones, or the defense, manage to pull the game out in the end, but I no longer have the confidence that Rodgers can make any throw at any time necessary.

On the other hand, we can't ignore that they keep finding a way to win these games.  Stifling defense won it last week.  This week the defense wasn't as good, but then the defense stiffened in the second half, and the Packers' offense made just enough plays on offense to tie the game, and then win the game, in the last few minutes.

Why do I think there is a problem with Rodgers?  You can't watch him tie the record for overthrows in a game (16), and tell me there is no problem.  If the Packers figured out a way to win the division the previous week, with a lot of short passes to move the ball down the field, coupled with a heavy reliance on the running game, why was that strategy abandoned during the entire first half against the Lions?  If your QB is repeatedly overthrowing mid to long range passes, how does Matt LaFleur not adjust his play-calling until the second half?  And how does the QB with a perfect passer rating against the Raiders two months ago, play like an average QB over the entire month of December?  I suppose the best case would be that he is in a slump that ends now and they cruise through the playoffs like they did after the 2010 season.  Or maybe he has some nagging, undisclosed hand or shoulder injury that might improve over the bye week?  Or maybe he needs to stop relying on pure arm strength and set his feet to get his entire body into his throws?

I re-watched the Lions game with these questions in mind.  I found the offensive game plan to be puzzling in the first half, with heavy reliance on longer throws, despite Rodgers overthrowing most of them.  In the second half, there was a noticeable shift to more emphasis on shorter passes, and more reliance on getting the ball to Aaron Jones, either running or as a receiver.  This resulted in scoring 20 points in the second half, as compared to 3 in the first half.

I also watched Rodgers' throwing mechanics.  No theory will explain every good and every bad throw.  But what I noticed is that he throws a lot of balls without setting his feet, even if he is relatively safe in the pocket.  And I noticed that he tends to overthrow a lot of those longer balls where his feet are not set.  On the other hand, he completes most of his short passes, even if he does not get his feet set.

So the game plan for the first playoff game should include the following points.  (1) use more pressure on defense - in the second half against the Lions, the Packers applied more pressure and gave up only 3 points.  (2) don't forget about the running game and the short passing game.  In fact, these should be the emphasis of the offense.  (3) take periodic longer shots down the field, especially as the defense adjusts to the short game, but practice, practice, practice having Rodgers get his feet set before unleashing longer throws.  If the Packers can do those three things, they have a great chance to get to the NFC Championship Game.  If they don't, and come up with a game plan like they used in the first half against the Lions, they have no chance.