Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Ugly Win Keeps Packers at Number One with Two Weeks to Go

Rodgers, Looking As Shocked as the Fans Were By What He Saw


 In the lead up to Saturday night's Panthers game, I read lots of stuff to the effect that the Panthers have made lesser quarterbacks look like Aaron Rodgers, and that the Panthers don't have much pass of a pass rush, or great defensive backs.  The consensus was that the Packers would feast on the Panthers' defense.  Never mind that the Panthers have almost made an art form of losing games where they had a chance to tie or win the game at the end of the fourth quarter.

And a feast is just what it looked like for the first three Packers' drives, after which the score was Packers, 21-3.  It was all fun and games, and when Rodgers ran the ball in for the second touchdown, even an opposing Panther player seemed like he was enjoying the "I love gold!" celebration put on by Rodgers and the other Packers.  (See photo below.)


And then the lull started, earlier than usual, and this time mostly on the offensive side of the ball.  In the late second and third quarter, the Packers had 5 straight possessions ending in punts (mostly 3 and outs), while the Panthers clawed and scratched their way back into the game.  By the time the Panthers' fourth down pass fell incomplete with 13 seconds left, the Packers should have felt lucky to escape with a 24-16 win.  

I thought something was missing from the offense on Saturday night, apart from a lack of energy and execution after going up 21-3: the jet sweep motion.  This has been an effective technique all year long to show Rodgers how the defense reacts to the motion.  But if the Packers ran any jet sweep motion plays at all, I don't remember them.  Why not?  Tyler Ervin may be out, but presumably one of the reasons the Packers signed Tavon Austin was to run this motion.  I don't understand it, and hope to see it again on Sunday night.

By the way, the Packers also beat the Panthers at Lambeau Field last year.  Oddly enough, it was by an identical score (24-16), in identical weather (low 30's at kickoff).  Last year's game also came down to the final drive by the Panthers, where the game came down to a stop of Christian McCaffrey at the one yard line on the final play to preserve the win.  This is sounding like a bad habit for the Packers, except, as mentioned, the Panthers have had a bunch of games that they have lost this year despite having the chance to tie or win the game late in the fourth quarter.  So maybe the Panthers are one of those snake-bit teams that are better than their record reflects?

The good news is that the Packers are 11-3, and still in the driver's seat for the number one seed.  But the bad news is, as Rodgers said on the field after the game, that the disappointing way the second half played out left a bad taste in his mouth.  Or as someone on Facebook said, "Another win that feels like a loss."  I wasn't happy either, but I am going to argue that the situation is not as bad as it felt immediately after the game.

If this was a "bad win" for the Packers, they weren't alone in getting a bad win this week.  The Seahawks, at 10-4 and also fighting for a chance at the number one seed and a bye in the playoffs, barely hung on for a 20-15 win against the Washington Redskins Football Team.  Washington, depending on how you count it, was arguably down to their 3rd string quarterback.  Washington drove into Seattle territory on their final drive, but alas, ending up turning over the ball on downs.  The Buccaneers, now 9-5 and fighting to catch the Saints for the NFC South division crown, had to come roaring back from a 17-0 deficit against the 4-10 Falcons, before finally pulling ahead in the 4th quarter for a 31-27 win.  Is that an ugly win, too?  Or does the comeback aspect of the game make it feel better to Buccaneers fans?  The Cardinals, fighting for their playoff lives, had to hold off the not-very-good Eagles for a victory, with the Eagles taking several incomplete shots at tying the game in the final seconds.

Speaking of ugly wins, how about ugly losses?  The Rams, 9-5 and fighting to win their division, lost to the previously winless Jets, 23-20.  They got behind and could not catch up, losing the game, despite starting their final drive in Jets territory thanks to a big punt return.  And of course the Saints lost to the Chiefs, 32-29, with the Chiefs running out the clock to put the game away without giving the Saints one last chance to win it.  Maybe this wasn't an ugly loss, because of the quality of the defending champion Chiefs, but it counts the same in the record book.  

To sum it all up, of the 7 NFC teams that would currently qualify for the playoffs, there were 3 losses this week (Saints, Washington, Rams) and 4 wins, all of which were ugly in some ways (Packers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals).  I tend to focus only on my own team most of the time, rejoicing some times, and despairing other times.  Stepping outside the NFC for a minute, if you are unhappy with the "quality" of the Packers' 4 game winning streak, imagine if you were a Steelers fan.  Their 11-0 start is coming crashing down all around them with a 3 game losing streak, including losses to the not-so-great Washington team, and the really bad Bengals team Monday night.  It is worth having a little perspective here, that winning an NFL game isn't ever easy, and most if not all of the other teams go through the same sorts of problems.  I take some comfort in the fact that the defense again played better on Saturday night, especially in the secondary.  They also again held the opposing running backs to manageable yardage, and they forced a game-changing turnover at the goal line when Krys Barnes knocked the ball out of the outstretched hands of Teddy Bridgewater as he attempted to dive over the line for a touchdown.

Anyway, it is now clear that the Packers can secure the number one seed in a number of ways.  The easiest is to beat the Bears in Week 17, in which case it becomes irrelevant whether they win or lose against the Titans on Sunday night, and it is also irrelevant what any other team does in the final two weeks.  Unfortunately, the Packers can't know for sure this week that they will beat the Bears next week.  So they need to play their starters, play hard, and beat the Titans.  Now, it should be noted that if the Rams beat the Seahawks earlier on Sunday, then a Packers win against the Titans will secure the number one seed for the Packers Sunday night.  

I have an uncomfortable feeling about this game.  I suspect that the Seahawks will beat the Rams, resulting in a letdown for the Packers, who might then be a little too focused on the fact that "all" they need to do is beat the Bears the following week, and thus not play well against the Titans.  Derrick Henry can almost single-handedly win a game.  I am hoping the Packers will get it done, but I could easily see the Packers dropping this game.

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