Ready for Prime Time?

I had looked forward to a quiet week of watching wild card games, waiting for the Packers to play next week, after their bye week off. Everything had been set up so perfectly. First, the Buccaneers lost last Monday night, giving the Packers an opening as wide as a barn door to claim the number 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, and a bye week to rest up and get healthy. Then, my daydream came true, and the Giants beat the Eagles at the Meadowlands on Saturday, opening the way for the Packers to claim home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Now, I knew that the Jets were a good team, and that they were playing extremely well, and I knew that they were playing the Packers at the Meadowlands. So I figured that there was a good chance the Jets might win the game. But I also expected (or at least hoped) that the Packers would rise to the occasion, given everything that was on the line. The 2002 Packers are not a dominant team, and it is doubtful that they would be dominant even if they had not suffered the injuries they have endured. But most if not all of their margin for error has been eliminated by the injuries. This is why I have assumed, for some weeks now, that the Packers would not end up in the Super Bowl this year. But the one thing that could have changed all of that was home field advantage. The Packers in their current beat-up state may not be invincible, even at home, but the odds of a Super Bowl appearance would have improved dramatically with a win against the Jets on Sunday.

This year's struggle for home field advantage was truly bizarre. Nobody seemed to want it. First, the Buccaneers gave away their own shot at home field by losing to the Steelers. Then the Eagles failed to nail it down, by losing to the Giants (despite the Giants’ friendly efforts to fumble away the game). Then, when the Packers had it sitting right at their feet, they could not take advantage, and could not even keep the game close, so the Eagles ended up with home field by default.

So instead of a week off to rest up, the Packers go from the frying pan (Chad Pennington) into the fire (Michael Vick) and a game against the Falcons on Saturday night. And I find myself on a plane to Chicago with my son as I write this, so we can be there way up in Row 58, Section 128, in the chilly night air (and maybe snow!) to watch the game. Early in the season, before most people knew who Chad Pennington was, Michael Vick was already becoming the young, exciting phenom at quarterback. He almost beat the Packers in a brutally hot opening day game at Lambeau Field. The Falcons, after lots of early excitement, ended up backing into the playoffs, after their own problems in the last few weeks were not quite enough to knock themselves out, but only because the New Orleans Saints were losing even more games than the Falcons. The Falcons could not score a potential game-tying touchdown last week against the Browns after four shots at it inside the 5 yard line, seemingly frittering away their playoff hopes, but their season was saved when the Saints also lost their game.

So the Falcons meet the Packers Saturday night, with neither team exactly on a roll. The league's experiment with Saturday night playoff games last year turned out to be a smashing success, given everything you could ask for in the Oakland at New England game, a good matchup, a close game, heavy snowfall, and even a controversial, game-deciding call. I suspect the league thinks that all the elements are present again. Brett Favre, the aging superstar, gunning for one more Super Bowl ring before retiring. Michael Vick, the next generation of superstar quarterbacks. ABC's own superstars in the form of the Monday Night Football crew. Lambeau Field, on a night when the tundra actually might be frozen, and now with the likelihood of snow.

I'm not saying it will be easy, but I think the Packers will win this game. The conditions on Saturday night should be such that Michael Vick will be slowed down, hopefully enough for the Packers' defenders to keep up with him. I would feel a lot better about this game if I knew that Driver and Sharper would be ready to play, but as of this writing they are both listed as questionable. I also think the Giants will easily defeat the 49ers. The Giants are on a roll, and the 49ers are not. The 49ers' defensive backs are not very good, and I keep thinking of the Giants carving up the Vikings' defensive backs in the NFC Championship game a couple of years ago.

If these predictions come true, it will be Green Bay at Tampa next week, along with the Giants at Philadelphia. There are lots of interesting story lines there, but that is a subject for another column, next week, if and when my predictions pan out.

Making a Statement

It is not an original thought to call yesterday's 31-23 victory over the Baltimore Ravens a "statement game." Others have used this phrase, both before, during and after the game. But that is exactly what it was. The statement has been made, and the message has been received around the NFL: the Packers look like a legitimate Super Bowl Contender. From Chris Berman's gushing on ESPN Prime Time last night ("Wow!" and "Favre is the best"), to MSNBC ("Packers Looking Super") to CNN/SI's Peter King (" we will never see this edition of the Ravens' defense carved up as it was Sunday at Lambeau by Dr. Brett Favre"), everyone is starting to see that there is something special about the way this team is playing. What a shame that they could not quite get the job done last week at Tampa.

And, as those of you who saw it know, it was not nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 31-10 with about 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. A soft, prevent-type defense led to one touchdown, and a recovered onside kick led to another, but the game was not in any serious jeopardy.

There were so many great moments from this game. The much-maligned Antonio Freeman catching pass after pass, including a touchdown at the end of the first half, and finishing off the game by recovering the last onside kick attempt, jumping around like a little kid in excitement. Darren Sharper's missed interception in the first half being redeemed by his interception in
the second half. (His mother's look of horror at the missed interception was matched by mine watching the game at home.) Santana Dotson's sack and forced fumble saving 3 or 7 points in the second quarter. Driver's fabulous catch on the next play, even if the ground may have assisted him a little in gathering in the ball. Corey Bradford's catch of a long ball coming straight down over the top of his head, on the same play that led to an interception the week before. Brett Favre's nearly-perfect day, including the astounding total of 337 passing yards, 391 total yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions against the Ravens' defense. Touchdown drives of 59, 74, 80 and 82 yards against the league's number 1-rated defense. Favre cheerleading in the hail in the fourth quarter.

I loved some of the post-game comments, too. Brian Billick (head coach of the Ravens) saying that he hopes the Ravens never play the Packers again. Brett Favre, telling the story about how Tom Rossley (offensive coordinator of the Packers) told him early in the week that the Packers would gain 400 yards against the Ravens. Favre, politely, said "OK, Tom, you're right," but admitted after the game that he was thinking "This guy is crazy. He must be drinking."

So where do we go from here? Ironically, winning more games, in a way, does nothing but put even more pressure on the team. The Packers seem to be in great shape for a trip to the playoffs, so now some thought about playoff positioning and home field advantage becomes inescapable. The official position of the Packers is that they focus on one game at a time. But maybe the Packers' fans can be excused if they take a little peek at what lies ahead.

The game this week at Minnesota becomes a big game on so many levels. There is the "house of horrors" aspect. The Packers have lost so many games there in the Brett Favre era, that one could not even think of becoming complacent about a trip to the Dome. And a team with the weapons the Vikings possess is always a scary prospect. And the Vikings game, being a division andconference game, counts for a lot more than the game against the Ravens, for tie-breaker and playoff position purposes.

On the other hand, Mike Sherman is 2-0 as a head coach against the Vikings, and the Vikings are struggling, so there is every reason to hope for a good outcome. When I looked at the schedule before the season, I figured that the Packers would probably lose the Tampa game, the Ravens game, and the Vikings game, meaning a three-game losing streak leading into the bye week.
Now, I am predicting that the Packers will win this game, by a score of something like 34-21. If they accomplish that, and thus achieve a 5-1 record before the bye week, I hope that Mike Sherman gives them the whole week off. They will certainly deserve it.

A Good Start

A well-timed family visit brought me to Wisconsin this past weekend. So (of course) a visit to a rainy Lambeau Field on opening day was on the agenda. The last time I went to an opening day game, the up-and-coming 1995 Green Bay Packers laid an egg. They lost to the St. Louis Rams, providing the Rams with their first-ever victory since moving to St. Louis. The weather was much worse this time around, but the football result was much better. [Ed. note - the Packers beat the Lions, 28-6.]

Opening day is a great time of year for football fans. Everyone has high expectations, or at least high hopes, on opening day. There is frequently ahint of fall in the air, and for those with kids, the new school year has either begun or is about to begin.

Here are a few things that struck me about the game and the stadium.

The parking situation is not as bad as was advertised. I over-reacted to the talk about parking problems and plunked down the money for a reserved spot in one of the Ticket Star lots. But this turned out to be quite unnecessary, as it seemed to be just about as easy to find a parking spot near the stadium as in past years. (In fact, I could have parked in the Ticket Star lot to which I was assigned for $5 less than I paid Ticket Star.)

On the other hand, foot congestion going into the stadium was pretty bad. I don't know if they are really enforcing the requirement that you enter only through the gate marked on your ticket, but there seemed to be a larger-than-usual backup going into the stadium. People should definitely allow some extra time to get in by opening kickoff.

The bunting in the stadium looked nice, but would have looked much better on a bright, sunny day. The smattering of boos for Antonio Freeman as he was introduced was perhaps to be expected, but still disappointing to me. Although he was not much of a factor in the game, I hope he is able to rehabilitate himself with the fans. In that connection, he did a nice job blocking on one of the running plays, which may help.

If there was any doubt last year about whether Ahman Green is the real deal, this game goes a long way toward dispelling that doubt. Green broke tackles on both of his long touchdown runs. If only I had him on my fantasy football team! Brett Favre (who is on my team) was also very sharp, with a high completion percentage despite 3 or 4 dropped passes, two TD passes and
no interceptions. Plus Favre did a great job blocking on a reverse and on another running play. The fact that the Lions were missing 3 of their defensive backs is probably good reason not to over-react to how good Favre looked on opening day, though.

But I don't think it is an over-reaction to say that the defense looked great. Ed Donatell, the defensive coordinator, called a great game and the players responded. KGB (Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila) was an exciting presence on the defensive side of the ball. He had 3 of the Packers' 7 sacks, and how can you not like a player whose name includes the word "beer", and whose initials are KGB, if you include his first name, or GB if you don't. Darren Sharper seems to have picked up exactly where he left off last year, with 2 interceptions including one for a TD, although the TD was called back.

Anyway, a great way to start the season. The Packers have a tough schedule this year, so they can't afford to give away any games that they should win, and by the end of the first quarter yesterday, it was pretty clear that they were not going to give this game away.

Too Little, Too Late

What a fabulous victory today by the Packers, in the Dome, against the Vikings. The Packers played with heart and intensity, and except for theone long TD to Moss, the game would not have been close at the end.

Some interesting facts about the game:

1. The Vikings were the last team in the NFL this year to lose a game in their home stadium. They finish with a 7-1 home record.

2. They are 11-2 against the rest of the league, 0-2 against the Packers.

3. Mike Holmgren's record against the Vikings was something like 8-8, 1-7 at the Dome. Mike Sherman's record is 2-0, 1-0 at the Dome.

4. The only win by the Packers in the Dome during the Holmgren years was in 1997, one of Mike Sherman's two years with the Packers as an assistant coach, and, I believe, the year that Holmgren asked Sherman to figure out why the Packers could never seem to win in the Dome. Maybe Mike Sherman is on to something.

5. Darren Sharper continues to lead the league in interceptions, and is the only Packer in the Pro Bowl. The turn-around this guy has had this year is nothing short of amazing. Congratulations to Sharper!

6. After starting out 2-4, the Packers have gone 6-3 the last 9 weeks, and have their first 3-game winning streak in quite a while. I think this puts to rest the question whether Mike Sherman will be back next year.

Unfortunately, all of this good stuff is still probably too little, too late, thanks to the fact that the Lions beat the Jets in the rain in New Jersey. Unless the Lions manage to lose to Chicago next week in the Silverdome (ain't gonna happen), the Packers will end their season next week against Tampa Bay.

Today's column is dedicated to 10-year-old Rocky Sonkowsky, of New Prague, Minnesota, a young man with the courage of his convictions, who is learning a lot about the meaning of free speech in our society. My kids are growing up in 49er/Raider country, and as a result I know a little about how brave Rocky must be. Way to go, Rocky! (If you don't know who Rocky is, take a
look at this article:
[Ed. note - original article in Journal-Sentinel online is no longer available. This article tells the same basic story: http://www.freedomforum.org/templates/document.asp?documentID=3192.]