Exorcise the Demon

Going into the final week of the regular season, the Packers had the chance to secure a week off and get some rest before starting the playoffs.  Of course, they blew that chance and let the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson run wild all over the Metrodome, leading to a 37-34 loss to the Vikings.  At times, one could be forgiven for wondering if the Packers had just decided to let Adrian Peterson get the all-time single season rushing record, as some kind of twisted and belated Christmas present.  Sort of like Brett Favre falling to the turf to give up a sack to his pal Michael Strahan.

I ran out of time this week to go back and re-watch the game, so I haven’t counted up the number of times Peterson bounced a run to the outside, whereupon the Packers defender realized that he had an impossible angle to get to Peterson, and had to adjust the angle so as to give up another 10 or 20 yards, but at least have a chance to catch up to Peterson.  Suffice it to say that it seemed like it happened a lot. 

Heading into the playoffs, there were a lot of potential revenge games that could have materialized for the Packers’ first game.  Would it be a chance to pay back Seattle, for (as it turns out) costing the Packers a bye week, and coming darn close to ruining the Packers’ season?  Would it be the Giants, with the Packers getting one more chance to show that the Giants’ defense does not really have the Packers’ number?  How about a flashback to all those Packers-49ers playoff games from the 1990’s and a chance to avenge the disastrous Terrell Owens game?

Nope.  Instead, the Packers get a do-over.  Another chance to show that the Packers don’t always give up 200 yards rushing to Adrian Peterson.  Another chance to stop the otherwise unimpressive Christian Ponder from carving them up.  And (forgive me for this) a chance to “wipe away” the Randy Moss playoff game from January 2005. 

To get it done, the first thing they have to do is do a better job of tackling.  The Packers showed in week 13 that you can give up a lot of yards to Adrian Peterson and still win the game, so long as you don’t also let Christian Ponder have time for a shoe shine and a shave while sitting back comfortably in the pocket.  Ponder had what was probably his best day in the NFL against the Packers last Sunday.  

The most interesting article I have read this week is by Kevin Seifert of ESPN.  He brings the stats to show that, in the first game between the two teams, the Packers blitzed 75% of the time on third down, and on those downs, Ponder was horrible.  For reasons known only to Dom Capers, on third down in the second game, the Packers only blitzed 25% of the time.  We all saw the results.  I am sure that Ponder has improved over the course of the year, and in particular he has looked much better in the last month, but he is not as good as he looked in that game.  So the second necessary change is to get in Ponder's face some more, and the turnovers will come.  One interception is all it would have taken to turn around the game last week.  Move the game outside in the cold, give the Packers a home crowd, rush more than three on third down, and the Packers should win this game.  It might not even be close, but given the way that the Packers rarely put away a lesser opponent, it probably will be.  Something like 31-24.

My wish list for the game includes a lot of rushing yards for Grant and Harris (I would love to see the first 100 yard rushing game for the Packers in a long time), a few catches for Donald Driver in what will most likely be his last home game, more sacks for Clay Matthews, a smashing return for Randall Cobb, and a sack or an interception (or both!) for Charles Woodson.  The most important item on my list is probably the rushing game for the Packers.  With Evan Dietrich-Smith and Don Barclay now starting on the offensive line, it is to be expected that these young players are more advanced in run blocking than they are in pass protection.  So rather than have Rodgers drop back 50 times and take 5 or 6 sacks, it would be great if the Packers could get the running game going, with the one-two punch of Grant and Harris, and take some pressure off of Rodgers.  If the Packers win Saturday night, they take a trip to my backyard to play the 49ers the following Saturday night.  That matchup will be a tough one for the Packers, if it happens.  But first things first.  Time to exorcise the Adrian Peterson-monster.

It is Time!

The title of the post of course refers to Kevin Greene's second half exhortation to Clay Matthews in Super Bowl XLV.  Matthews proceeded to force the fumble that did a lot to secure the Packers' victory over the Steelers.

"It is Time" also seems apt to me as we approach the week one matchup with the 49ers.  As a person who really doesn't follow any other sport, the off-season seems to go on forever, and I almost can't believe that the season has started with the opening night matchup of the defending champion Giants against the Cowboys.  (I think I read that, in the 8 or 9 years since the league started the opening Thursday night game featuring the defending champions, the Giants are the first defending champion to lose.)  So the season is off to a good start, from the standpoint of playoff positioning.

What will the Packers do this season?  There is no reason to expect the offense to be anything other than excellent.  Aaron Rodgers said something to the effect that the law of averages suggests that his stats will not be quite as impressive as last year, there might be more interceptions bouncing off of shoulder pads, etc.  Cedric Benson as the starting running back (at least for now) tells me that our running game should be improved, even if he is fumble prone based on his history.  So the offense should be fine.

The defense was the question mark last year, and the Packers have already lost two starters from opening day last year - Nick Collins (released due to his injury) and Desmond Bishop (on injured reserve).  But the Packers first six draft picks were on defense, so it is hard for me to see how the defense will not be improved.  I am counting most on Nick Perry, starting at Outside Linebacker, and Jerel Worthy, at defensive end, to provide some more of the pressure that the Packers were missing last year.

Here in the SF Bay Area, they seem to think that the 49ers will be contenders for the Super Bowl this year.  I will believe it when I see it.  I know they played very well last year, but I am not a believer until I see a better passing game.  I'm not sure how much the loathsome Randy Moss has left, and my primary issue with the 49ers is Alex Smith.  Aaron Rodgers, he ain't, and I have it on good information that Jim Harbaugh keeps him on a very short leash.

My week one prediction: Packers 31, 49ers 20.

A Perfect Day

I don't know about you, but I can't find much of anything to complain about from last Sunday. First, I woke up to find out that Saddam Hussein had been captured. That was a good start. Then, the Rams beat the Seahawks (that one I expected) and the Bears beat the Vikings (I didn't have enough courage to come right out and predict that one). I was flipping back and forth between these two games, enjoying both very much. I hope you saw the way the Vikings game ended. In the closing minutes, with the Bears leading 13-10, the Vikings got the ball back and had driven to the Bears' 10 yard line. Then, Culpepper went back to pass, Moss went up for the ball in the end zone, it was in his hands for what would probably be the winning touchdown, when the Bears' defensive back just scooped it out of Moss' hands and came down with the ball for the
game-preserving interception. That might be the best play by a defensive back of the new millennium so far. It sort of looked as if he was trying to bat the pass out of Moss' hands, but it was a controlled bat, instead of smacking the ball as hard as he could, and he literally just scooped it away from the great Moss. What a way to win a game and help the Packers out.

Now it was time to switch to the Packer game, although somehow the NFL Sunday Ticket (and I guess the whole FOX network) forgot to throw a switch, so that the Packers were actually ahead 7-0 by the time they switched to the game. Other than a few really painful minutes at the start of the 4th quarter, this game went exactly as I had hoped. [Ed. note - the Packers beat the Chargers, 38-21.] The result: the Packers are now tied for first in the division (with complicated tie-breaker implications at the minute) and tied for the first wild card (with a clear tie-breaker advantage over the Seahawks). If the Packers win their last two games, it is almost certain (but not yet 100% certain) that they will be in the playoffs.

Looking forward to this weekend, the Chiefs play at the Vikings on Saturday. The Chiefs are not as good as they seemed at times this year, and the Vikings might not be quite as bad as they have seemed in recent weeks. Still, I think the Chiefs have enough strength and motivation to beat the Vikings. On Sunday, I don't think it is reasonable to think that the Cardinals will beat the Seahawks, so the Packers will not likely get any help there. It is debatable whether it is better for the Packers for the Cowboys to win, or to lose, but in any event I expect them to beat the Giants.

Which brings us, of course, to Monday night. The re-match of Super Bowl II. Another game between the same two teams who were playing the day that Leroy Butler invented the Lambeau Leap. Most likely the last time the Raiders will ever play against Brett Favre, and most likely the last time the Packers ever play against Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. Lots of history in this game, and despite the fact that most of the Raiders' home games have been blacked out here in the Bay Area, so that I have not seen as many Raider games as you might expect, I cannot believe that the Raiders are as bad as their 4-10 record. In fact, the Raiders' victory over the Ravens last week (who were fighting for a playoff spot) tends to prove the point, and hopefully will help the Packers to avoid complacency.

My wife was driving during the Raiders game last week, and heard the radio announcers say that the Raiders' attendance was the lowest of the year. Bear in mind, even if the Raiders were out of the playoffs, the Raiders sort of had a score to settle with the Ravens, since the Ravens kept them out of the Super Bowl a few years ago. Still, the paid attendance was 45,398 in a stadium that holds over 63,000 in football configuration. I just checked (Friday afternoon)on Tickets.com, and it looks as if there are nothing but single tickets left for the game Monday night. Who bought all those extra tickets for the game this Monday? You know as well as I do who bought the tickets. I think that means that the crowd will be approximately one-third Packer fans on Monday night. Including yours truly and family, of course. (A little advice to Packer fans attending the game: be careful, some Raiders fans are just as crazy as they appear.)

I am not saying it is going to be easy, but I think the Packers will win this game, probably convincingly. The Packers' running game is too strong for the Raiders' depleted defense, and if they try too hard to stop Ahman Green, I think that Favre's thumb is now getting healthy enough for the passing game to do the trick. The Packers' defense may have some deficiencies, but are Rick Mirer and a couple of the oldest receivers in the league going to beat them? I don't think so.

If all goes well, the Packers will be in sole possession of first place in the NFC North by late Monday night.

2001 in Review

Last night, we brought to a close a year many of us would rather put behind us, and today we welcome what we hope will be a much better year. Outside the football world, 2001 was a terrible year. A controversial Presidential election split the country right down the middle as the year began, and the stock market and the whole economy were in the tank. Then came the unfathomable terrorist attacks by Bin Laden's foot soldiers. Thousands of our fellow citizens lost their lives because of a handful of religious fanatics. And on and on. It was a year we will never forget, and a year that helped us football fanatics to put our fanaticism into some perspective, for a change.

But back to the Packers. 2001 started off quietly, too quietly, as the Packers were out of the playoffs for the second year in a row. On the bright side, that string of four straight victories in December, 2000 against NFC Central opponents left us with a sense that 2001 could bring better things for the Packers.

And sure enough, the Packers started out the 2001 season with a bang, winning the first three games in a fashion that was impressive, except for nagging doubts about the quality of their opponents. They then dropped a close game in Tampa, and then quite unexpectedly beat the World Champion Ravens in Green Bay. That was, in some ways, the high point of the season. Since that time their record has been 7-3, which is pretty good, but the three losses were to teams they should have beaten, and a couple of the victories required either miracle finishes (in Jacksonville) or serious nail-biting (in Detroit, and in Chicago). Most frustrating of all was the Packers' tendency to lose an "easy" game immediately after an important victory. All of this leaves one thinking wistfully of what might have been if the Packers had not dropped one of those games.

Sunday's game looked like it might fit right into that mold. The Packers had made the playoffs the week before, and now the Packers had no running game, the passing game was mostly misfiring, and the defensive line was being gashed by the Vikings' running backs, despite the total absence of any passing game from the Vikings' third string quarterback. The Packers were letting the Vikings hang around through the entire game, and when the Vikings scored to go ahead in the 4th quarter, 13-10, it looked like an upset in the making. But then the Packers turned it on, Packers marched down the field on the next drive, and went ahead for good.

What was the story? Were they just toying with the Vikings? Not exactly. It turns out from the post-game interviews that there was method in the Packers' madness, at least on defense. They were determined not to let the Vikings' receivers (especially Randy Moss) get open, and if that meant less attention to defending the run, so be it. The Packers were pretty sure that the Vikings would not win the game on the ground, and it turns out they were right. On offense, the picture is more complicated. The running game was not working, but the passing game was also misfiring, with a combination of off-target passes and dropped passes. This is the kind of inconsistency we have seen on and off all year, except this time it did not cost the Packers the game.

My sense is that the Packers are a year away from doing any serious damage in the playoffs. Living here in 49er country, the 49er fans seem to have the same question about their team that I have about the Packers: how is this team going to beat the Rams? The answer is that neither the 49ers nor the Packers have much chance of doing that. Of course, on any given Sunday anything can happen, but speaking for myself, I am not making any reservations for New Orleans.

Still, the season for the Packers has at least two weeks to go, and that is a much better situation than the Packers found themselves in a year ago. There are no guarantees, but the Packers have a reasonable shot of beating any other NFC team in the playoffs, except the Rams in the dome. So if things go right, the Packers could even end up in the NFC Championship game, and I suppose if someone else knocks off the Rams (like the Buccaneers?) they could possibly end up in the Super Bowl. But that seems like too much to ask of this team. A much more likely scenario is a first-round victory, followed by a frustrating loss in the second round. That will have been a very good season for the Packers, and something to build on for next year.

In the meantime, Happy New Year to Packer fans everywhere, and to all Americans.

What a Difference A Week Makes

Sunday's game against Minnesota was the polar opposite of last week's game against Baltimore. For every pass that was snared by a Packer for a great catch last week, one fell incomplete this week. Last week the Packers just dominated a team that, some of us thought, was a better team, at least on defense. This week, a team with all kinds of weaknesses on offense and defense totally dominated the Packers, a team we all assumed was the superior team.

The Packers were beaten solidly in just about every phase of the game, including a ridiculous disparity in time of possession (37 minutes to 23). This loss was a true team effort, and there is plenty of blame to be shared by offense, defense, and by the coaching staff. The 35-13 loss, according to reports, is the worst loss the Packers have suffered in 7 years, going back to the 35-9 pasting of the Packers by the Cowboys in January, 1995.

Some of us had deluded ourselves into thinking that Minnesota is no longer the House of Horrors for the Packers, by convincing ourselves that the Packers have sufficient speed now to turn the turf to their advantage. Ahman Green would have a big day, as would our speedy receivers like Corey Bradford. KGB would be in Daunte Culpepper's face all day. With the retirement of Robert Smith, and with Michael Bennett being injured, the Vikings would have no running game at all, allowing the Packers' defense to concentrate on stopping Moss and Carter.

Of course, none of that happened. Ahman Green was not much of a factor. KGB rarely had his name or initials called. In fact, his name literally does not appear in the game statistics: no tackles, no sacks, no assists. The receivers dropped a lot of balls. One of Favre's passes was intercepted and run back for a touchdown. And the Packers, as they seem to have done many times before, gave up large chunks of yardage to a backup running back,this one named Chapman. Shades of Brad Hoover from last year's Carolina game! Leroy Butler was injured and did not return to the game. Favre injured his elbow on a meaningless 2 point conversion attempt at the end of the game. Heck, even one of the Packers' coaches was injured in a bizarre mishap on the sidelines.

The upshot is that the Chicago Bears are now in sole possession of first place in the NFC Central. The Packers (4-2) have fallen two games behind the St. Louis Rams (6-0) for the best record in the NFL. And Minnesota (3-3) and Tampa Bay (2-3), instead of being banished to "wait-until-next-year-land," are creeping closer to the Packers in the standings. At least we can still count on Detroit (0-5) for some comic relief, as they wasted two fourth quarter ties to lose to the Titans in the final seconds.

But, hey: look at the bright side. At least we won't have to read more accolades about the Packers this week, and how "super" they are looking. This will allow our expectations to settle back a little toward normal. And the Packers won't be reading any accolades during their bye week, either. Instead, they will have to get ready for a now-crucial home game against Tampa on November 4. The Weather Channel says that the average high temperature in Green Bay on November 4 is 47 degrees Fahrenheit. Not cold enough!

Seriously, it is almost impossible to go through a whole season without a disappointing game somewhere along the way. And this blowout game counts the same in the standings as a close loss on a field goal as time expires. There is nothing we can do but hope that this game is an aberration, and not the start of a new trend.

Too Little, Too Late

What a fabulous victory today by the Packers, in the Dome, against the Vikings. The Packers played with heart and intensity, and except for theone long TD to Moss, the game would not have been close at the end.

Some interesting facts about the game:

1. The Vikings were the last team in the NFL this year to lose a game in their home stadium. They finish with a 7-1 home record.

2. They are 11-2 against the rest of the league, 0-2 against the Packers.

3. Mike Holmgren's record against the Vikings was something like 8-8, 1-7 at the Dome. Mike Sherman's record is 2-0, 1-0 at the Dome.

4. The only win by the Packers in the Dome during the Holmgren years was in 1997, one of Mike Sherman's two years with the Packers as an assistant coach, and, I believe, the year that Holmgren asked Sherman to figure out why the Packers could never seem to win in the Dome. Maybe Mike Sherman is on to something.

5. Darren Sharper continues to lead the league in interceptions, and is the only Packer in the Pro Bowl. The turn-around this guy has had this year is nothing short of amazing. Congratulations to Sharper!

6. After starting out 2-4, the Packers have gone 6-3 the last 9 weeks, and have their first 3-game winning streak in quite a while. I think this puts to rest the question whether Mike Sherman will be back next year.

Unfortunately, all of this good stuff is still probably too little, too late, thanks to the fact that the Lions beat the Jets in the rain in New Jersey. Unless the Lions manage to lose to Chicago next week in the Silverdome (ain't gonna happen), the Packers will end their season next week against Tampa Bay.

Today's column is dedicated to 10-year-old Rocky Sonkowsky, of New Prague, Minnesota, a young man with the courage of his convictions, who is learning a lot about the meaning of free speech in our society. My kids are growing up in 49er/Raider country, and as a result I know a little about how brave Rocky must be. Way to go, Rocky! (If you don't know who Rocky is, take a
look at this article:
[Ed. note - original article in Journal-Sentinel online is no longer available. This article tells the same basic story: http://www.freedomforum.org/templates/document.asp?documentID=3192.]