Two weeks ago, I wrote that I felt pretty good about the Championship Game against the 49ers, but admitted to some trepidations about the game. After all, the 49ers had Home Field Advantage, had a good defense, etc., etc., etc.
A young man by the name of Jarrod Leder wrote a response to my article (BEFORE the game), pointing out eight analytical reasons why the Packers would win the game. Slightly condensed, here they are:
1) The 49ers are an untested team. [...] The Packers had to beat three of the five (not including themselves) best teams in the NFC TWICE!!!! Plus one for the Pack.
2) Barry Sanders. [...] The biggest reason why the Packers are only rated 7th in the league in defense is because of this man. He racked up close to 300 yards on the Packers this year and the 9ers didn't even play him. Plus two for the Pack.
3) Brett Favre. He has a 94.1 QB rating in the playoffs which is higher than Young. [...] Plus three for the Pack.
4) Gilbert Brown. Nobody in the league can run on this defense when he's in there and healthy. [...] Plus four for the Pack.
5) Packers secondary vs. untested receivers. Evans and Williams are [...] the most dominant tandem in the league and you can quote me on that. Plus five for the Packers.
6) Dorsey Levens. He's a freight train in the playoffs. [...] Plus six for the Packers.
7) Home field, Shmome field. The Packers won all three games of a late season road trip which included winning at Minnesota (the 49ers didn't do that) and Tampa Bay (the 49ers didn't do that either). [...] The Packers have no fear of playing on the road. [...] Plus seven for the Packers.
8) I've been right about every Packer game this season including the loss to the Colts (no joke). [...] I have the same feeling about this game that I had for the Cowboy game in November. I had a feeling the Packers were going to completely crush the 'Boys. Plus eight for the Packers.
WOW!! Jarrod, "you da man" as far as I am concerned. As I told him after the game, looking back on it now, it all seems so clear that the Packers were the better team, by far, and that they should have been able to win the game easily. Still, all those many years of something going wrong didn't allow me to realize, before the game, just how right Jarrod was.
Well, here we go again. My immediate, waterlogged reaction after the Championship Game was that the Packers would easily beat the Broncos. This lasted all the way home from 3Com Park. But then, I started to think of all of the talent John Elway has shown over the years, all of his comebacks, the clutch catches by Sterling's little brother, the strong running game led by Terrell Davis. Doubt started to creep in again.
No, forget it. The Packers will win this game, and they will win it solidly (no point-spread prediction here, though). Even if the Broncos are better than the 49ers, itself a dubious proposition to anyone who saw the Monday night debacle between those two teams a few weeks ago, the fact is that the Packers are just the better team, and are on a mission of their own, to make more history for themselves and for our glorious franchise. So sorry, John Elway, that "sentimental favorite" business carries no weight with me, with millions of other Packer fans, or with the World Champion Green Bay Packers themselves.
I have not heard from Jarrod yet about the Super Bowl, but await his analysis with great anticipation.
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On the way out of the Superdome last January 26, we heard a rhythmic chant arise from our fellow Packer fans. "One and Two, Thirty-One and Thirty-Two." (Or for the Romans among us, "I and II, XXXI and XXXII.") It has been a long year since then, with a lot of ups and downs. The Packers have persevered, and are packing their bags for San Diego. All that remains to make this year's dreams come true is for them to win the game.
Why not AP?
5 weeks ago