Finley: Unstoppable!

(Photo from the Green Bay Press-Gazette)

Just as I thought, when the Packers meet the Bears with Jermichael Finley in uniform, and in the absence of a flurry of penalties, the Packers win the game, pretty convincingly.  Finley was just about unstoppable, scoring all three Packer touchdowns, apparently the first Packer tight end 3 TD game since Keith Jackson (Whoa Nellie!  I am referring to the player, not the announcer) scored three touchdowns in the season opener in 1996.  Sunday's game was not as close as the 27-17 final score would suggest.

The Packers' passing offense was aided significantly by a 92 yard rushing day for Ryan Grant.  After missing all three Bears games last year, I am sure it felt great for Grant to be such a contributor.  The defense managed to hold Matt Forte to 2 yards rushing, and while Cutler got a lot of yards, the Packers sacked him 3 times and intercepted him twice.  Woodson played a lot at safety in this game, returning to his cornerback position when the Packers were in nickel pass coverage.  Neither Woodson nor Matthews had gaudy stats in this game, but both were steady contributors, and Matthews in particular was very disruptive, as the TV announcers mentioned.

Meanwhile, I cannot imagine the disappointment of the Bears' coaching staff and players over the result of their masterful trick punt return play.  With a minute left in the game, and trailing by 10 points, the Bears uncorked a beauty of a play.  The Packers had been punting away from Devin Hester all afternoon, and did so again, punting to the Packers' left sideline.  But Hester, on the Packers' right side, sprinted  further to the Packers' right side, acting as if he was waiting for the ball to come to him.  Every Packer player, except punter Tim Masthay, bit on the fake, assumed that Masthay had mistakenly punted to the Packers' right side, and they all swarmed to Hester's side.  Meanwhile, Johnny Knox fielded the ball on the Packers' left sideline, and headed up field, with one lead blocker taking out Masthay, the only guy who realized the ball was over on the left side.  It would have been a touchdown, but for an absolutely meaningless holding infraction by Corey Graham, blocking one of the gunners early on in the play.  He didn't need to hold anybody; whoever he held probably was 20 yards or more away from the play at the time.  Now even if the Bears got the touchdown, they would have had to recover an onside kick and score a field goal to tie up the game.  But it was a beautifully-designed play, one of the sweetest special-teams plays I have ever seen, and it was screwed up by a needless penalty.  Even Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings were raving about this play.

So the Packers are 3-0, which, as we were told, means that there is a 76% chance they will make the playoffs.  In the case of the 2011 Packers, I think the chances are a little higher than that.

Watching the 2010 Packers-Bears Week 3 Game

Just for the heck of it, I decided to re-watch the Week 3 game between the Packers and the Bears from last year.  I knew, without looking up the details, that the Packers would lose by 3 points, and that there were something like 18 penalties against the Packers in the game.  Painful as it was to watch, I think I gained some extra perspective by watching the game again.

The reason I chose to watch this Bears game is that it is the only one the Packers played against the Bears last year with Jermichael Finley.  Since the Bears play a lot of Tampa-2 defense, Jermichael Finley (or any top flight tight end) should be a large factor in the game, getting open over the middle.  And he was.  The Packers ended up losing the game anyway, but having another shot at the Bears with Jermichael Finley in the lineup makes me think good things should happen.

First Quarter.  The first quarter ended with the Packers leading 7-0.  The Bears had two possessions during this quarter, both of which were extended by penalties on the Packers.  Yet the Bears missed a field goal, and then Cutler was intercepted in the end zone.  Rodgers looked sharp, but there was no running game to speak of (remember, this was after Ryan Grant went out for the season, and before the Packers started using Starks).  The Packers got good pressure on Cutler, and sacked him once, as I recall.  So far, so good.

Second Quarter:  The Packers continued to outplay the Bears, getting a couple of sacks on defense, forcing a 3-and-out, and gave up a touchdown only after a Hester punt return set the Bears up in great position to score.  On offense, the Packers scored only a field goal, and started mis-firing more frequently than in the first quarter.  Rodgers was intercepted on the Hail Mary pass at the end of the half, which doesn't really count.  Most ominously, by my unofficial count the Packers only had 6 penalties in the first half.  Lots more to come.

Third Quarter: There were no scores in the quarter, but penalties started to have a real impact on the game. A Jermichael Finley TD was nullified by a holding penalty, and then Julius Peppers blocked the field goal try.  The Bears got down to the 1 yard line, but threw an incomplete pass on 4th down.  Six penalties in the quarter.  At the end of three quarters, Packers, 10-7.

Fourth Quarter:  And then came the decisive fourth quarter.  Hester returned a punt for a touchdown on the second play of the quarter, giving the Bears their first lead.  The Packers scored on a long touchdown drive.  A Finley TD was nullified by penalty (of course) but then Rodgers ran it in.  The Bears tied it up on a long drive, where a nullified interception and 30 yards of penalties contributed heavily to the drive.  Then, James Jones was stripped along the sidelines, and McCarthy wasted a precious timeout challenging the play, despite the fact (1) that it happened right in front of him; and (2) the fact that there was no chance it would be overturned.  This led to the go-ahead (and winning) field goal, after McCarthy decided to mount a heroic goal line stand instead of letting the Bears score, which would have given Rodgers a final chance.

So what does this tell us for this week's game?  It tells me that the Packers should win.  They had more yards than the Bears last year, more first downs, and more sacks.  It was only the penalties, poor special-teams play, and the poor decisions by McCarthy in the fourth quarter that let the Bears win the game.  Since then, the offensive line is much better (and so there should be fewer holding and offsides penalties), McCarthy's decision-making at the end of games is improved, and the special teams play is (at least a little) better.  Oh, and we have a better running game this time.  The loss of Nick Collins is a problem, and somewhere down the road they may lose a game because of it.  But I don't think it will be this week.

Déjà Vu

(Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Photo)

In the words of the immortal Yogi Berra (my favorite baseball player as a kid), "It's déjà vu all over again." Just like last year, the Packers are 2-0 after two weeks, leading into their week three matchup at Chicago. True, last year the Bears were also 2-0, and by beating the Packers they took control of the division, kept it almost all year, and ended up as the NFC North Champ for 2010, sending the Packers on the road in the playoffs. This year, if the Packers can beat the Bears at Chicago, they would put the Bears two games plus a tie-breaker behind them. That would be a nice result.

(There is another little problem down the road for the Packers - the Lions are also 2-0, looking every bit as good as we expected they might be this year. But since the Packers don't play them until Thanksgiving, there will be plenty of time to talk about the Lions later.)

As for the Bears, I admit that they surprised me in Week 1 by beating the Falcons, and beating them solidly. Sure, you can say that the Falcons have a problem on defense, as the Packers illustrated in the playoffs last year. And you can certainly criticize the Falcons for trading as many draft picks as they did for wide receiver Julio Jones, rather than addressing their defensive problems. But it is quite another thing for them to be picked apart by Jay Cutler, who may very well deserve more credit than I usually give him. Speaking of Cutler, as I was driving around late last night, I heard an ESPN Radio guy make the observation that the Bears need to do something about their offensive line, “or they are going to get Jay Cutler killed back there.” He added, “maybe that is the plan.” I paid just enough attention to the Bears game Sunday to realize that, despite getting sacked repeatedly, Cutler and the Bears’ offense made enough good plays to keep it close into the third quarter, but this time the Saints pulled away.

Against the Panthers, the Packers’ offense looked good, after getting into a 13-0 hole in the first few possessions. A fumbled kickoff return by rookie Randall Cobb contributed to the problem, but even without that the Panthers had a TD drive and another field goal drive to create the 13-0 lead. Rodgers was pretty close to flawless in parts of the second half, the running game was reasonably productive, and I really like the change-up in running styles created by playing both Ryan Grant and James Starks. Jennings, Nelson, and Finley did most of the damage in the passing game (which presumably means James Jones will continue to be irritated at the paucity of passes in his direction). Driver only caught one pass, but it was the pass that gave him the record in pass receiving yardage as a Packer, surpassing James Lofton. (He wrote a very gracious letter of thanks to the Packer fans, as noted here.) He may be nearing the end of the road, but he continues to be a contributor. For the second week in a row, he was the “hands” team guy to go up high and grab the onside kick in the closing minutes of the game.

The Packers’ defense is beginning to look like it could be a problem. Mike Neal missed the game on the defensive line, and is likely to miss a “significant” number of weeks with his injury. The Packers made what seemed at the time to be a good decision by also making Tramon Williams inactive, giving him an extra week to heal up. After all, they were playing a rookie QB, what could possibly go wrong?

When it became apparent that last week’s game was not a fluke, and that Cam Newton is the real deal, the absence of Williams became more problematic. And when Nick Collins was taken off the field strapped to a plank after a scary looking injury, things got even more troublesome. We just learned this afternoon that Collins is out for the season, which is terrible news, but I am thankful that he was well enough to return to Green Bay and attend the team meeting to tell his teammates the bad news.

So here we go - Packers and Bears in Week 3, just like last year, with injuries becoming problems for the Packers, and with a lot on the line.  Déjà vu.

Great Opening Night Win

So we decided to take a little journey to the land of the opening night hoopla.  I have been to opening day games before, and there is always a special, "back to football at last!" sort of flavor to the first game, or even to the first home game.  But I have never been to an opening night Thursday game, much less to a special, Thursday night opening game with everyone watching, and with a concert outside the stadium, colored cards for visual stunts taped to the seats, etc. Plus, the last two Super Bowl Champions facing off, Rodgers vs. Brees, the Packers' long list of receivers vs. the Saints' long list of receivers, fireworks being shot off, the whole nine yards.  You could certainly say that the game had a playoff feel to it.

Last week I wondered if the Packers would remember lessons learned from last year and stay aggressive.  Early returns suggest that they remember very well.  They started the game in a modified no-huddle type of offense, which worked so well during the pre-season and at times last year, and drove right down the field for a touchdown on the first drive.  A fumble recovery led to another quick touchdown, before the pace of the game settled down a bit.  They were also aggressive enough on defense to put a lot of heat on Drew Brees.  You could perhaps criticize Mike McCarthy for going a little bit into his shell on the last couple of offensive possessions.  I suppose that if the game goes down to the very last play with the winner in doubt, maybe it is fair to say that McCarthy went conservative a little too early.

Except for those last couple of possessions, the Packers' offense looked great.  Do did the Saints' offense.  Stuck in traffic on the way up to Green Bay, I heard various predictions on the radio about how the offenses are always behind the defenses at this time of year, so the score would probably be something like 17-13.  Yeah, right.  These offenses were on fire, in a way that I thought was not a poor reflection on the defenses so much as it was a sign of excellence on the offensive side of the ball.

Speaking of which, stuck in traffic again on the way back from Green Bay, we heard some Bears fan call in to NFL Satellite Radio, licking his chops about how bad the Packers' and Saints' defenses are, and predicting a 3-0 record for the Bears after facing the Falcons, Saints and Packers.  Talk about whistling past the graveyard!  I think 1-2 or 0-3 are far more likely.  We shall see, but despite the fact that the Bears won the division last year, played the Packers very tough, almost knocked them out of the playoffs, and almost beat them with their third-string quarterback, I am just not sold on the Bears.

Of course, there were some bad things in the game, like the old special teams problem rearing its ugly head, and some unnecessary penalties.  There was a scary-looking injury to Tramon Williams, but it appears that it is not as serious as it looked.  On the whole, what a great way to start the season for the Packers.  And for the NFL and NBC, I don't know how they could have asked for a better game.  On the offensive side of the ball, the Packers got a lift from the return of Jermichael Finley, and the combination of Ryan Grant and James Starks looks like it should be productive.  And then there was Randall Cobb.  A rookie, backup receiver and kick returner, scores his first two touchdowns on a huge stage, ties an all-time kickoff return record, and becomes the first NFL player born in the 1990's!

The Packers' defense, despite giving up 34 points, came up with two huge stops to save the game - first on a 4th and inches play late in the third quarter.  The Packers must have smelled a pass, because they came after Brees, chased him backwards about 20 yards, before he finally got rid of the ball on a short pass that had no chance of resulting in a first down.  Then, after an interference call on A.J. Hawk on what should have been the last play of the game, the Saints got one final chance, with zero seconds left, to get the ball in the end zone from the 1 yard line.  Maybe because of the 4th and inches failure earlier, Sean Payton decided to switch things up and try a dive by Mark Ingram over the center of the line.  But the Packers, this time, smelled the run (one of the defensive linemen said something about seeing the Saints' offensive linemen clenching their fists, and they knew it would be a running play).  So the defensive linemen went low, to avoid being pushed backwards, and four linebackers and defensive backs went high to stuff Darren Sproles Mark Ingram for no gain.  Final score: Packers 42, Saints 34.

Thoughts on Packers-Saints Opener

Having watched the Packers' preseason games this year, I have mixed feelings leading up to Thursday night's opening game.  On the one hand, the Packers' starters looked pretty good in all four games, especially on offense when they were in the no-huddle.  On the other hand, the Packers ended up behind in all 4 games, lost one, and had to have the second and third-stringers stage rallies to win the other three.  So what does that tell us?  Probably very little.  While I think Mike McCarthy was trying to win every game, his primary focus had to be on player evaluation (given the limited preseason evaluation time available), and on keeping his starters healthy which, for the most part, he did.

It seemed to many of us that Mike McCarthy evolved as a coach last season, culminating in him putting together a six-game win streak to become World Champions.  I felt that McCarthy and Dom Capers got to a point where they had enough confidence in their starters (even their starters after all of the injuries), that they felt comfortable enough to have all options on the table (onside kicks, aggressive blitzing packages, aggressive offensive play-calling including the no-huddle offense).  That evolution was a long time in coming and, in fairness, would not have been a good move earlier in the Aaron Rodgers era when McCarthy didn't have as much confidence in his offense, and when Capers knew that his defense was not quite ready.

Now the question is: will the coaches remember those lessons learned, and continue with the aggressive approach they used at the end of the season?  Or will they start out playing their cards close to the vest, hoping to come out of their shells later?

I thought back to an interesting Packers.com article from February, in which the author, Mike Spofford, describes a conversation McCarthy had with Aaron Rodgers before the Super Bowl.  McCarthy told Rodgers that he (McCarthy) would be the aggressive one with the play calling, but Rodgers would have to be the disciplined one with the decisions.  Not to pick old scabs off old wounds, but can you imagine McCarthy, or Mike Sherman, putting the burden on Brett Favre to be the disciplined one?  Yeah, neither can I.

So the challenge for McCarthy is to continue that same approach Thursday night.  The Saints are a great football team, despite their shocking playoff loss to the Seahawks.  If McCarthy and the Packers come out playing tentatively, the result could be bad.  They need to come out aggressively and take the game right to the Saints.  With Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant back, and with the emergence of James Starks, it is hard to see how the Packers' offense can be contained, so long as Aaron Rodgers gets some time.  And even after the loss of Cullen Jenkins, there are still enough playmakers on defense to cause some problems.

Review of Pre-Season Opener

So, the Packers lost their pre-season opener Saturday night, 27-17, to the Cleveland Browns.  Of course, they lost to the Browns in the pre-season last year, too, and the season worked out pretty well anyway.

I did not see anything to get me too concerned.  Sure, it would be great if they looked in post-season form, but that is not too likely in a first pre-season game.  On offense, the starters (minus Jermichael Finley, who was held out with a minor injury) did not look sharp on their first drive, going 3 and out.  But they got it together on the next drive (the last drive for Rodgers), and moved crisply down the field, scoring in 7 plays, including nice looking passes to Donald Driver and to Greg Jennings for the touchdown.

Matt Flynn led the offense for the rest of the first half, and he looked like a very capable backup, who could lead the offense if necessary.  He put 10 points on the board, on a couple of scoring drives, and made no big mistakes.  Graham Harrell played quarterbacks with an all-backup team for the entire second half, and did not look nearly as good.  He completed 50% of his passes, but gave up the big play of the game, a blind-side sack and strip that was returned for a touchdown.  He had two other fumbles to add to this.  In fairness to him, there was a lot of rotation of offensive linemen in the game, but especially in the second half, presumably so that Coach McCarthy can test out different players at different OL positions.

The defense never showed any consistency at any time in the game.  Of course, they were playing without Charles Woodson (just resting) and Sam Shields (minor injury).  Plus, Dom Capers called a pretty plain-vanilla style defense, as you might expect at this point.  Still, the coaching staff can't be happy about letting Colt McCoy complete 90% of his passes and two scoring drives.

Among the new players, there was one real standout: rookie WR and KR Randall Cobb (the Packers' second pick in the draft this year).  He was the leading receiver for the Packers in this game (3 catches for 60 yards), and he looked really promising, especially as a kickoff returner.  He returned two kickoffs for a total of 58 yards, and in both cases he got an extra 5-8 yards after I expected him to go down.  The league has deliberately de-emphasized kickoffs this year, by moving the kickoffs back to the 35 yard line.  This will result in more touchbacks and fewer runbacks.  Which might be too bad, now that we have a promising kick returner.

The bottom line is that when you add Cobb to an already-excellent receiving corps, the Packers really have something special.  Plus, if Cobb is the main kick returner, we can keep Tramon Williams out of having to return kicks, which scared me every time he lined up back there.  I anxiously await the return of Jermichael Finley.  They can't keep all the WRs and TEs on the roster, but if they keep the good ones healthy, they will be in great shape.

Defense of the Title Starts This Week

I feel as if my normal off-season rhythm was thrown off completely this year by the lockout, and even though I don't normally post much during the off-season, this year I have hardly posted at all.  And here the pre-season opener against the Cleveland Browns is only three days away.  It is high time to get myself back into a football frame of mind.

But before turning to the pre-season, why not take a couple of minutes and watch the story of the making of the Packers' Super Bowl rings.  The rings are stunning, and I love the fact that Jostens traces the history back to the Super Bowl I rings, designed jointly by Jostens and Vincent Thomas Lombardi.  Anyway, enjoy, and know that a lot of these rings will be on display in the White House on Friday.  Fire up the metal detectors.

Turning to the pre-season, the big news of the week is that Clay Matthews played the second half of the season, and the entire post-season, with a broken leg.  OK, it was a stress fracture, but that is still a broken leg.  It was over 30 years ago that the Rams' Jack Youngblood played in Super Bowl XIV with a broken leg, and I gather that his broken leg was also a stress fracture.  But it still is a powerful thought, that these guys can play, and play well, with that kind of an injury.  Play well?  My goodness.  I still get the chills when I see the video of Kevin Greene telling Clay Matthews that "it is time" [to make a play], followed by Matthews forcing a fumble to preserve and lengthen the lead over the Steelers.  To me, that Kevin Greene/Clay Matthews combination is right up there with Babe Ruth's called home run shot in the 1932 World Series.

Obviously, the key to this or any other Packer season is protecting Aaron Rodgers.  Just today, Packers.com posted an article that pointed out something I had not thought of before.  The starting offensive line this year will consist of three left tackles, along with a center and a right guard.  Chad Clifton, Bryan Bulaga, and rookie Derek Sherrod are all left tackles by past experience.  Given that, for a right-handed quarterback, the left tackle is the most important member of the offensive line, having three of them in the starting lineup provides some promise that Rodgers' sack total should drop again this year.

Let the games begin.

2011 Packers Schedule

Well, the 2011 Schedule for the World Champion Green Bay Packers is out.  Now, if there is only a full season for us to watch.  You can find a simple chart of the schedule at Jersey Al's Packer Blog, and a printable version, suitable for taping on the refrigerator, at Packers.com.  (Which is exactly what will happen with my copy as soon as I finish this blog post.)

I like the schedule, assuming the full schedule is played as listed.  If the lockout continues into the season, there is just no way to tell how the league will move things around once the season starts.  So, for example, the bye week happens almost in the middle of the season (in week 8), which seems like a great spot for bodies to heal.  But not if the first six games just get wiped out, leaving the Packers with a bye after one game.  Since there is no use speculating what might happen to the schedule, I am just going to evaluate it as it is.

The opening week Thursday night game, three days before any other teams play, features the New Orleans Saints at the Green Bay Packers.  The last two Super Bowl winners, and the last two Super Bowl MVPs.  Not a bad little game.  I actually thought they would have Bears at Packers, to give a re-match of the NFC Championship game, but they opted for Saints at Packers.  To football fans not specifically invested in the two teams, which is really the point of the opening Thursday night game, I think Saints at Packers is in fact the better choice.  If I were a fan of the Carolina Panthers, or the Oakland Raiders, it is possible that I might have gotten a little bored over the years hearing about the Bears and Packers, the black and blue division, blah, blah, blah.  But I would definitely tune in to check out Saints and Packers, Brees and Rodgers.  This matchup, in short, probably has more curb appeal than a matchup that includes Jay Cutler as one of the quarterbacks.

There are no three-game road trips on the schedule, always a good thing, because they never seem to turn out too well.  Three of the last four games are home games, and two of those games are against warm weather teams (Raiders) or dome teams (Lions).  The other December home game is against the Bears, in week 16.  That is a great placement for Bears and Packers, and it might just be an important game again, as it was in 2010.  There are a couple of other warm weather / dome teams on the home schedule in mid-November, a Monday night game against the Vikings, and a Sunday game against the Buccaneers.  So weather could be a factor from mid-November on.

Finally, as one would expect, the Packers get great exposure in prime time and other national games.  The Packers play four times in night games (Saints at Packers, September 8, Packers at Falcons, October 9, Vikings at Packers, November 14, and Bears at Packers, Christmas night).  They also play at Detroit on Thanksgiving, and five of their Sunday day games are in the late time slot (Packers at Bears, September 25, Broncos at Packers, October 2, Packers at Vikings, October 23, Packers at Chargers, November 6, and Packers at Giants, December 4).  Not that I would actually do this, but living here on the west coast, I could sleep late every Sunday next season and not miss many Packer games.

I am anxiously awaiting the new season!

Celebrating the World Champion Green Bay Packers

(Photo by Corey Wilson of the Green Bay Press-Gazette)





I have a few observations from watching hours of post-game coverage, some live, and some on tape.  I will have more to say on the game itself later, but just wanted to comment on a few things from the moments of celebration.

As soon as the game ended, the idea sprang to mind that this game was a microcosm of the season as a whole.  I thought it was an original thought, but then I saw Chris Berman and others use the same term.  Berman, being an Ivy Leaguer from Brown, is obviously a smart guy, so it is a good thought, even if not original.  But this game really did capture the whole season.  Excellent play for most of the game by Aaron Rodgers, lots of dropped catchable balls, big plays on defense (especially the interception for a touchdown by Nick Collins and the forced fumble by Clay Matthews), a lull in the middle of the game, and finally a game-winning stand by the defense.  If that does not replicate what happened this season, I don't know what does.  [Ed. Note: I meant to mention the injuries to critical players, yet another way in which this game mirrored the season as a whole.]

Turning over the ball to the Steelers, with two minutes left, reminded the football guys on TV of the Super Bowl between the Steelers and the Cardinals two years ago, where the Steelers got the ball with about 2 minutes left and went down the field to win the game.  But I could not get the image of the 2009 Packers - Steelers game out of my mind, where the Packers took a 6 point lead late in the fourth quarter, but the Steelers drove for the game-winning touchdown on the final play.  Not this time, though.  The Packers' defense would not let that happen.

And it still is true that the Packers never trailed in any game, all year long, including the playoffs, by more than seven points.  That is a remarkable accomplishment.

I saw Greg Jennings, on the post-game show, talk about how "our no. 1 receiver, Donald Driver, went out with an injury."  Now, everybody knows that Greg Jennings is the Packers' no. 1 receiver, and has been for several years.  But what a classy, deferential move for Greg Jennings to describe Donald Driver that way.

Donald Driver spoke about the fact that sometimes you get injured, that you hope it doesn't happen in a Super Bowl, but that he is fine with it.  He said that his teammates told him that they would win the game for him.

I saw Charles Woodson, asked about his reaction to breaking his collarbone, saying that he broke down and cried, more so than he had done since he was a little kid.  And yet I also heard that, during halftime, he spoke to the team and told them just to play their hearts out and win the game.  I assume that he tried to talk at greater length to the team, and just could not get the words out.

Desmond Bishop, referring to Woodson breaking down, described how powerful it was to him to see his idol, Charles Woodson, break down like that, and how it motivated him to go out and win the game for Woodson.

Speaking of Donald Driver and Charles Woodson, you could not miss them standing on the sidelines, cheering on their team.  I thought Jay Cutler was unfairly criticized for not coming back into the NFC Championship Game, but it is undeniable that he mostly sat on the bench or stood by himself, and appeared to be sulking or feeling sorry for himself on the sidelines.  Totally different deal with Driver and Woodson, and I would have expected nothing less of them.

I heard Charles Woodson tell an anecdote to show how loose the Packers were before the game.  He described how, on Saturday night, backup defensive end C.J. Wilson sat down and started playing the piano. He said that he had always heard that Greg Jennings can sing, but he had never actually heard him, until Jennings (who, I believe, also plays the guitar) joined in with Wilson and started singing for the team, on the night before the Super Bowl.

I saw one of the players (can't remember who said this) tell the interviewer that Mike McCarthy had the team members measured for Super Bowl rings Saturday night.  What a great way to bring home the immediacy of the task in front of them, and to emphasize that they expected to win the game.  That was something that Mike McCarthy said all week, along with the statement that "This is our time."

And I heard Aaron Rodgers talk about how the team is made up of high quality players, and high character players.  From everything we can see, as fans on the outside looking in, that is true, and I think the comments quoted above by various players tends to show it is true.

Finally, I heard the tail end of a radio interview with Dom Capers, who was asked about the loss of Woodson, and for a time, Sam Shields, and he said that the game plan went out the window.  But it was the Super Bowl, with an extended halftime, and as a result, the defense had time to make the numerous adjustments that were necessary to win the game.  It was certainly closer than we hoped, and every Packer fan had to be having heart palpitations during parts of the third and fourth quarters, but when it counted, the offense drove down the field to score more points (unfortunately, only a field goal), and then the defense rose up and forced a turnover on downs.

Let's relish this win, and look forward to the fact that the Packers are well positioned to have more shots at the Super Bowl in the coming years.

More Thoughts and Super Bowl Prediction

"We have four quarters left."  Throughout the playoffs, Mike McCarthy has discussed the Packers' goal to play 16 quarters of football in the playoffs.  The time for those last four quarters has arrived.  Charles Woodson, by contrast, focused on the word "one," in his famous speech after the NFC Championship Game: "One mind, one heartbeat, one goal, one more game."  (This is the same speech in which he called out the President for saying that he would go to the Super Bowl if the Bears won.)

What a week this must be for Woodson.  Even though I live in Oakland Raider territory, I pay as little attention to the Raiders as possible.  Which is easy since most of their home games are blacked out anyway.  But as a result, I guess I did not realize all the things that were going on with Charles Woodson when he was a Raider.  One of the local ink-stained wretches wrote a very nice piece on Woodson this week, reflecting on the years he covered him when he was with the Raiders.  Woodson was arrested a couple of times, while enjoying way too much of the nightlife, and he would fall asleep in team meetings, getting by on his pure athletic ability during the games.  But just look at him now and the transformation he has undergone with the Packers.  He has settled down, started a family, become a student of the game, and a leader on and off the field.

Woodson is one of only two current Packers to have played in a Super Bowl before.  I remember about half of that Super Bowl very well.  We were in Utah, and watched the first half of the game, and a little more, in our hotel room.  But the Jon Gruden-led Buccaneers were beating his former team, the Raiders, so badly that by some point in the third quarter we decided the rest of the game was not worth watching, and we went out to do other things, listening on the car radio instead.  So Woodson saw his former team blown out in the Super Bowl, then saw his career head downhill until the Packers were the only team that would take him.  He then saw his current team fall just short of the Super Bowl after the 2007 season, and then lose its Hall of Fame Quarterback.  I imagine that, in training camp of 2008, he must have wondered if he had enough time left to get another shot.  And yet here he is, preparing for Super Bowl XLV.

One more note before getting to my prediction.  ESPN's NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert, and my friend Dick Karth, brought a great article to my attention, written by Wright Thompson of ESPN.  It is about Vince Lombardi's house in Green Bay.  Just go read it - you won't regret it.  (Vince Lombardi Lived Here.)

The expectation of most commentators, as well as those who set the point spread, is that the Super Bowl will be a close game.  That is not necessarily good news, since the Steelers seem much better than the Packers in finishing on the winning side of close games.  I find it not at all surprising that the point spread is only 2 or 3 points, but I don't think it will be that close.

First, let's take the intangible or psychological elements.  Yogi Berra was supposed to have said that "90% of the game is half mental."  While his math is questionable, and he was of course talking about baseball, still there is a significant mental aspect to the game of football.  One of the themes of the media coverage this week is how much of an advantage the Steelers get out of the fact that they have been to two recent Super Bowls, and that many, if not most, of the Steelers have Super Bowl experience.  I don't see this as much of a factor.  I am perfectly prepared to concede that the experience factor is a plus for the Steelers.  But I believe that the Packers get at least as much of a psychological edge from the desire to go out and get Super Bowl rings for their aging veterans, guys like Charles Woodson and Donald Driver, plus the desire to take the Brett Favre monkey off of Aaron Rodgers' back, so that they can put the issue behind them forever.

On the purely physical side, I think a few comparisons are pretty clear (feel free to take issue in the comments): (1) the Steelers have a better running game; (2) the Packers have a better passing game; (3) while the defenses in general are pretty equal, the Packers defensive backs, as a unit, are better; and (4) the Packers receivers, as a unit, are much better.

The point of treating the defensive backs and receivers as units is this.  The Steelers have a great defensive back in Troy Polamalu, assuming he is completely healthy, a great young receiver in Mike Wallace, and a great aging veteran receiver in Hines Ward.  Let's just say (without quibbling about which is better) that they are roughly the equivalent of Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver on the Packers side.  But even if Charles Woodson is balanced out by Polamalu on the Steelers side, with the development of Tramon Williams and Sam Shields this year, along with Peprah and Collins, I think the overall group of defensive backs likely to get significant playing time in the game is just stronger on the Packers's side.  Same story for receivers.  The Packers' third and fourth receivers can run circles around the third and fourth receivers for the Steelers (although, in fairness, their tight end, Heath Miller, is much better than the Packers' tight ends with Jermichael Finley on injured reserve).

I think the depth at receivers and defensive backs will be the difference in the game.  In the Packers' 3 and 4 receiver formations (not to mention the 5 receiver set), who is going to cover all those guys?  The Packers need a game plan involving protection for the quarterback on long balls, and quick release on all others.  If they have that, and if they continue to have at least a credible running game, I think the Packers win the battle of the Packers' offense against the Steelers' defense.  On the other side of the ball, the depth at defensive backs (and lack of depth of the Steelers' receivers) should allow the Packers to be good enough in coverage to avoid getting burned like the last time they played the Steelers, while freeing up Dom Capers to run some creative blitzes by Woodson, Williams, and others.  Add in the relative weakness of the Steelers' offensive line (particularly if rookie center Maurkice Pouncey does not play) and there is the potential for the Packers' defense to do some real damage.

If the game ends up being close in the final minutes, I will be terrified, because of the Steelers' superior ability to pull out games in the closing minutes or seconds.  But if the Packers get ahead early and keep the pressure on on offense and defense, this game might not be as close as some expect.  I am picking the Packers, by a score something like 34-24.