Remember the Titans?

Trivia question: when was the last time the Packers got off to a fast start in a game?  Because they certainly didn't do it against the Bears last Sunday.  The Packers misfired on their first offensive series, with Rodgers throwing the ball behind receivers several times, and took a couple of sacks on the first two series, before ending a scoreless first quarter.  To make matters worse, they came close to giving up an interception on one tipped ball, and they almost had their first punt blocked.  The Bears got on the board first, in the second quarter, with a TD pass to new public enemy no. 1, Brandon Marshall, before the Packers finally seemed to get started in the game.

At the end of the day, the Packers were able to win the game in what would have been a comfortable fashion, but for one of the worst coaching calls in recent memory - the 4th quarter Randall Cobb "throwback" trick play punt return - Cobb caught the punt, then threw the ball across the field.  It looked like it could have been a good play with lots of potential in the right situation.  The receiver could have done a better job of going to get the ball, but instead the ball was fumbled and recovered by the Bears.  Close to your own goal line?  Leading by 11 points and with 8 minutes left, when the Bears have had almost no offense all day long?  I just don't see the risk-reward balance on this play as making it even close to being a sensible decision.

Mason Crosby missed another pair of field goals, from 43 and 42 yards.  This has got to be a mental issue at this point - Crosby has talent, but is not executing the kicks.  I question whether there is a better kicker out there bagging groceries and waiting for a call, so I am reluctantly in McCarthy's camp on this - Crosby is our kicker, period, so get over it and hope he gets through this soon.  Meanwhile, for an amusing look at a kicker who apparently is available to replace Crosby on a moment's notice, take a look at this video, located by the Acme Packing Company website.

Trap Game Ahead?  And now the Tennessee Titans come to Lambeau, for the last regular season home game of the year.  The Titans are 5-9, and have given up 396 points this season.  Only the Raiders and the Bills have given up more (402).  But they also have Chris Johnson who, as the Jets found out Monday night, is capable of taking over a game.  And the Packers have been known, from time to time, to give up big games to running backs.  So this game could be one of those games that could jump up and bite the Packers.  But I doubt it.  As bad as the Jets are now, the Titans only beat them by 4 points, despite a 94 yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson.  The Packers are just a better team, and the Titans are a little out of their element playing in Wisconsin in January.  Still, there is no margin for error if the Packers hope to rise to the no. 2 seed, so it would be advisable for them to "remember the Titans."

Bye Week Possibilities.  I really figured the 49ers would lose to the Patriots on Sunday night.  And of course, if they had, the Packers would be sitting at the No. 2 NFC seed right now.  I sort of gave up hope when the 49ers were ahead 31-3.  But I kept watching, mostly for Fantasy Football reasons.  Lo and behold, the Patriots tied it up at 31, before losing the game 41-34.  So the question now becomes, assuming the Packers beat the Titans, can the Seahawks give the Packers a little help by beating the 49ers?  It would be a welcome "payback" by the Seahawks to the Packers, after the "Fail Mary" game.  It almost seems like completely different 49er and Seahawks teams will be playing Sunday night, as compared to their last meeting 10 weeks ago, when the 49ers won, 13-6.  Both teams are scoring a lot more points now.  The Seahawks scored 50 or more points the last two weeks, admittedly against bad teams.  But the way they are playing now, the Seahawks certainly have a shot, and it would not even be a huge upset if they won.

Bear Down Against the Chicago Bears

Mike Daniels makes the Lambeau Leap

Let's see - a magically beautiful snow game, the Packers falling into an 0-14 hole due in part to turnover(s), Ryan Grant on the field, the Packers come back to win the game.  Why does this all seem so familiar?  Ah, yes.  The famous Snow Globe Game.  The final score against the Lions last Sunday was not as convincing, just 27-20, but given that the Bears and 49ers both lost on Sunday, the significance of the victory over the Lions can't be underestimated.  Sunday's game against the Bears, of course, will be even more significant.

After getting back Sam Shields last week, it looks like the Packers will finally get Clay Matthews back on Sunday.  Unfortunately, Jordy Nelson, James Starks, C.J. Wilson, and Charles Woodson are still out.  My thought has been that the only upside to this year's raft of injuries was that the Packers would start to get back some of those players not on Injured Reserve at just the right time to close out the year strong and go into the playoffs.  There is still room for that to happen, but it is not happening as fast as I would have liked.  The return of Greg Jennings was offset almost immediately by the loss of Jordy Nelson, so the Packers continue to be slightly short-handed at receiver.  That said, the return of Matthews should be an enormous benefit to the Packers this week.  Maybe the brightest spot for the Bears' offense this season is the Jay Cutler - Brandon Marshall connection (32 catches in his last three games).  While the burden for defending against Marshall will fall primarily on the defensive backs, more pressure on Cutler will definitely contribute to holding Marshall in check.

Meanwhile, the Bears have given up 170 or more rushing yards in each of the last two games (against the Vikings and Seahawks).  If only the Packers had a rushing game.  Oh, wait!  The Packers, all of a sudden, have one, having gained 140 or more against the Lions and Vikings.  Ryan Grant, who I assume will get more than one carry on Sunday, has a history, both of performing well against the Bears, and of performing well when the weather turns sloppy.  So I look forward to seeing what he can do against the Bears.  Plus I like the three-headed monster of a running back group of Ryan Grant, DuJuan Harris, and Alex Green.  They each have different styles, they each have shown that they can be effective (assuming, in Ryan Grant's case, that there is gas left in the tank) and they all are healthy and should have fresh legs at this time of the season.  If the Packers can keep a semblance of a running game going, they will be hard to stop.

The Bears always seem to play a tough game against the Packers, but I don't see the Bears actually winning the game on Sunday, especially missing Brian Urlacher, Tim Jennings, and a couple of other defensive players.  Full disclosure: I always think the Packers will beat the Bears, so I am not necessarily a good judge of this game.  But there are lots of stats that tend to back me up on this one.  I see big days for the Packers' running backs, and big days for at least a couple of the receivers, most likely Jermichael Finley (believe it or not) and Greg Jennings.  The Packers have started off the last two games very slowly, and dug themselves considerable holes before turning things around.  If they can avoid that fate this time, the game may not be close.

Which Packer Team Will Show Up?

Green Bay Press-Gazette Photo

The game against the Giants two weeks ago left me in a very foul mood.  You figure that a team will lose some games in a season.  Every team since the 1972 Dolphins has done so.  But the Packers in 2012 have found some creative and different ways to lose games this year.  The opening day loss to the 49ers was just a case of getting beat by what was, on that day anyway, a better team.  The Seattle "Fail Mary" loss was one for the ages - but in a bad way.  We will be talking about that game 20 years from now, the way the Bears fans still talk about the Majkowski-Sharpe "Instant Replay" game from 1989 (except the call in this case really was a travesty, unlike the call in the "Instant Replay" game).  The Indianapolis "Epic Collapse" game was shocking and disgusting at the time, but now that the Colts are 8-4, we can see that they are a much better team than we assumed.

But the Giants game was just an old-fashioned ass-kicking.  The Giants beat the Packers in every facet of the game, and it wasn't even close.  How bad was it?  Kevin Seifert of ESPN gives the ugly details.

The Giants may or may not "have the Packers' number" (whatever that means), but they have shown repeatedly over the last 6 seasons that they know how to exploit the weaknesses in the Packers' team.  The thing that made me more angry than sad is to read that the Packers' players said that they played the game without emotion.  This has been repeated in many venues, including Packers.com.   I can excuse the players for making physical mistakes (like taking a bad angle on a tackle), or for not being good enough (like Tramon Williams trying to cover Hakeem Nicks) a lot easier than I can excuse them for not playing with emotion.  The division lead is on the line, after a long, hard slog to get back in first place in the NFC North.  The Packers had two playoff losses to the same Giants in the last 5 seasons, interrupting what looked like Super Bowl runs.  The Packers (arguably) play better on the road than at home.  And then they come out and get man-handled, and their excuse is that they "played without emotion?"

Anyway, this left the Packers trailing the Bears by a game for the division lead, with 5 games to go.  The toughest remaining game for both teams is the week 14 matchup between the two, which in many scenarios will decide the division.  But given the beat-down administered by the Giants, could anyone be faulted for fearing that the Packers would drop another game somewhere along the way, making the game with the Bears irrelevant?  That, I have to admit, is what I was worried about going into the Vikings game.

And there were moments during that game when it looked like that was exactly what would happen.  After getting off to a 10-0 start ("hey, this is going to be easy after all") thanks to an unbelievable catch in the end zone by James Jones, the game started slipping away.  When the Packers started practicing their "Olé!" tackling technique on Adrian Peterson, another 10 point lead was blown, and the Packers trailed 14-10 at halftime.  It was about to get worse, when Morgan Burnett (MVP of the game, according to my daughter) pulled in the first of his two interceptions to cut off a Minnesota scoring drive. 

Of course, the Packers went on to win the game, so everything was good.  On top of that, the Bears lost in overtime to Seattle, and the 49ers lost to the Rams in overtime.  Which put the Packers back in first place in the division, and got me to thinking about the possibility of passing up the 49ers for the second seed and the bye.  Until my daughter brought me back to earth by pointing out that it is crazy to think about that, with the Packers looking as inconsistent as they have this year. 

So which Packer team is the real one?  The team that looks great in beating the Texans?  Or the team that gets crushed by the Giants and blows a huge lead to the Colts?  If the "good" Packers are the real team, this is the time of year for them to step up.  We will start to find out, tonight, against the Lions.  The Lions obviously have some talent, and the Packers obviously have lots of injuries.  But if this is a team that is going to contend for a championship, there is no excuse, this time of year, at home, for not going out and taking care of business.

Bye Week Blues? No, Bye Week Bonus!

As much as the Packers may have needed a bye week to have a chance to get healthy, their fans usually don't look forward to the bye week.  Sure, you can watch other NFL games, or clean out your garage, or catch up on some paperwork or whatever.  But usually it is a letdown, a lost Sunday right in the middle of the football season.

Going into the weekend, the Packers were on a four game winning streak, with a 6-3 record, sitting in second place in the division.  "If the playoffs started today," as they say, the Packers would be a wild card, and the 5th seed, looking up at the four division leaders.  So what happened to those four division leaders?  The number one seed Falcons, previously 8-0, went out and lost to the New Orleans Saints, despite having a couple of opportunities in the closing minutes to take the lead.  The Saints had an impressive goal line stand in the final two minutes of the game to preserve the win.

The 7-1 Chicago Bears were the number 2 seed, and led the Packers by a game and a half.  But a sloppy weather game in Chicago, and a concussion for Jay Cutler, was all it took for them to lose their second game, to the Texans.  Truth be told, they didn't look that good even before Cutler got knocked out, having scored only 3 points in the first half with Cutler at the helm.

The 6-3 New York Giants not only lost their game to the Bengals, but they looked pretty bad in the process.  They gave up big plays on defense, turned over the ball 4 times on offense, and didn't look very good on special teams, either.

The 49ers started the day at 6-2, and because they opened the season by beating the Packers, they would win any head-to-head tiebreaker with the Packers.  They battled the Rams to a 24-24 tie.  This was heartbreaking for the Rams, since they gave up several opportunities to win the game in overtime alone, on devastating penalties.  The good news about the 49ers ending up in a tie is that it makes it highly unlikely that the Packers and 49ers will end up in a head-to-head tie at the end of the year.

So the Packers picked up ground on every NFC team that was ahead of them in the playoff race.  Not a bad days' work for a bunch of guys sitting on the couch watching TV.  As a result, the Packers now control almost all aspects of their 2012 destiny.  If they just keep winning, they will win the NFC North, and start the playoffs with a home playoff game.  For a team that, a month ago, was at 2-3 and heading off to face the unbeaten Texans, that is pretty good.

Packers' Best Game of the Year

Green Bay Press-Gazette Photo by Evan Siegle

Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win.  Could a team be any more inconsistent than that?  Which team is the real Packer team?  The team of the collapse of epic proportions from the Colts game?  Or the team that went out and knocked off the unbeaten Texans, on the road, in convincing fashion?  I wish I knew.

Until the Texans game, you could say that the Packers had not performed particularly well in any game.  They lost to the 49ers, Seahawks and Colts.  The Packers were outplayed and out-coached by the 49ers.  There may be an asterisk next to the Seahawks loss, but you wouldn't want to have to defend the proposition that the Packers played well in that game.  And as for the Colts game, the Packers played a good first half, and then fell apart at the seams to lose the game.

What about the two previous wins?  The Packers beat the Bears solidly, but then again I am not really a believer in Cutler or the Bears, despite their division-leading 4-1 record, so color me somewhat unimpressed.  The win against the Saints was important and satisfying at one level, but (a) they barely beat the Saints and could easily have lost; and (b) the Saints are not the Saints of a couple of years ago.  So the Packers not only needed a win against the Texans, they needed a convincing one, for the sake of their own confidence and the confidence of their fans.  This game ought to do the trick.  The Texans were not only undefeated, they were looking like a Super Bowl contender.  They had one of the highest-powered offenses in the league, featuring Arian Foster and Andre Johnson.

Despite all that, the Packers outplayed the Texans from the first possession on, and won the game 42-24.  They looked good on offense, and on defense, and on special teams (other than the blocked punt that was recovered for a TD).  Alex Green did a solid if unspectacular job of replacing Cedric Benson, and the passing game looked the best it has looked all season, even if it is still not quite at the level of last year.  On defense, the Packers put pressure on Schaub all night long, sacked him three times, and intercepted him three times.  Both Foster and Johnson were kept in check, and Schaub finished with 232 yards, no TDs and 2 interceptions.

The frequently frustrating James Jones seems to be taking a step forward this year.  He has caught two TD passes in 3 consecutive games, including the sensational catch pictured above.  No Packers player has done that since DON HUTSON did it a long time ago.  That seems impossible to believe.  Jennings, Driver, Freeman, Brooks, Sharpe, Lofton, Dale, McGee, Dowler, and Howton never did it, but Hutson and Jones did?  That is pretty remarkable company.  Speaking of Packer records, how about Aaron Rodgers?  He tied the all time Packer record for TDs in a single game (6), set by . . . Matt Flynn last year.

The Packers lost another starter for the year (D.J. Smith) and several other players were knocked out of the game with injuries that looked less serious.  The backups played well, especially rookie defensive back Casey Hayward, who made two interceptions and looked great.  Now the Packers will finish their three game road trip at St. Louis, where the Rams are also 3-3.  The Packers are favored in this game, so you would certainly think that they have a good chance of winning 2 of 3 on the road trip, and getting above .500 for the first time this year.  Maybe the Packers have the rest of the league exactly where they want them, with a 3-3 record, just like they had in 2010.

Quarter Season Review

Photo from Packersnews.com Facebook Timeline

With a quarter of the regular season behind them, where do the Packers stand?  They scratched their way back to even with a 2-2 record, by beating the desperate New Orleans Saints, 28-27, last Sunday.  But they came uncomfortably close to losing a second game in a row attributable in part to bad calls, this time by the returning regular referees. 

Late in the second quarter, the Packers led, 21-7, so it is unfortunate that they even put themselves in a position to possibly lose the game.  The big play allowing them to build the 21-7 lead was another trick play on special teams.  In the second quarter, on 4th and 1 from the Packers' own 17 yard line, McCarthy called a fake punt, a direct snap to John Kuhn who gained 5 yards and the first down.  I admire the gutsy nature of the call, and I am glad that Coach McCarthy has enough confidence in his players to make crazy calls like this.  But the key word is "crazy."  I just think this kind of a call, at that point in the game, is reckless.  The play worked, so McCarthy comes out as the hero.  I still think it is the wrong call.

At the quarter season mark, here are the things I like best about the way the Packers are playing.  I like the renewed emphasis on the running game.  It is an interesting question how Cedric Benson matches up with Ryan Grant, or with other Packer running backs in recent history.  (A satirical look at this question is here.)  But whatever the answer, the Packers seem to be working themselves into a state of mind where they are putting more reliance on the run.  This is a very good thing, given the sack totals against Rodgers this year when they forget about the run.  I like the gutsy calls on special teams, even though I happen to think the one discussed above was a reckless one.  It keeps the other teams guessing, and until the Packers start to get burned on these calls, there is no downside.  I also like the way the Packers are finding innovative ways to use Randall Cobb.  He is a really talented young player on a team that is overloaded with receivers.  So every time they find a different way to use him, it is a plus.  I am also beginning to get a good feeling about some of the new defensive players, Nick Perry and Casey Hayward in particular.

My biggest overall concerns about the team so far are these.  First, the offense, although effective enough to win most of the time, just has not seemed right.  Maybe it is not realistic to compare this year's offense to last year's, which was nearly unstoppable most of the time.  But between dropped passes, passes off the mark, and 16 sacks given up, the offense is under-performing.  Second is the defensive play-calling, and here I am thinking primarily of the Saints game.  I can understand Dom Capers being concerned about leaving his rookie defensive players too exposed, but when you give up 446 passing yards to Drew Brees and almost lose the game, something is not going too well.  Capers sometimes has a tendency to rush 3 or 4 against an elite quarterback, and drop everybody else in coverage.  In theory this could work, but in practice doesn't it seem as if the elite quarterback always carves up the Packers' defense?  You could say that the Packers gave up an 80 yard TD pass to Morgan in the Saints game on a play where they did rush more players, undercutting my argument.  But the truth is that the TD resulted from a coverage breakdown by the defensive backs, not as a result of applying more pressure.  Finally, there are clock management / challenge issues.  In the Saints game in particular, McCarthy made a poor decision on a challenge in the first half, and another challenge later, which left him with no challenges left when Darren Sproles fumbled the kickoff after the Packers went ahead, 28-27.  It was a flat-out blown call, but McCarthy had no opportunity to get the call reversed, due to the lack of challenges.

So now the Packers head off on a three game road trip, to Indianapolis (1-2), Houston (4-0) and St. Louis (3-2).  It is really important that they come away with at least two wins on the trip, and of course the most obvious game that they "should" win is at the Colts tomorrow.  They need to start to re-claim that killer instinct, where they go in and put a game away early on.  Let's hope they get it done.

Sleepless About the Seattle Game

Broadcast Screen Capture by Scott Crevier, Frame 3 © Scott Crevier

Hmmm - what to discuss today about the Packers @ Seahawks game?  Here's an idea, how about the officiating on the final play of this week's game?  The Packers lost to the Seahawks, 14-12, on a disputed touchdown pass on the final play of the game.

Scott Crevier, proprietor of the South End Zone web site, and the guy who encouraged me to start the predecessor to this blog, put up some screen captures showing the final play.   Not to go all Zapruder film on this, but to me, the most conclusive frame is the third one (shown above and at the link to Flickr).  The first frame shows that Packer defensive back M.D. Jennings had possession of the ball prior to Seahawks receiver Golden Tate, so under the plain reading of the rule (see below), this is not simultaneous possession.  The second frame arguably shows both players with hands on the ball, but the third frame shows Tate's hand come off the ball before sticking his hand back in there in the 4th frame.  So if there is any doubt about the simultaneity of the possession, I think the third frame shows that this is Jennings' ball, because he had it throughout, while Tate's possession was (a) later; and (b) (at best for Tate) lost before being re-established.

The rule (Rule 8, Section 1, Article 3, Item 5) says:

Simultaneous Catch. If a pass is caught simultaneously by two eligible opponents, and both players retain it, the ball belongs to the passers. It is not a simultaneous catch if a player gains control first and an opponent subsequently gains joint control.

It is hard to see the status of Tate's left hand throughout the play, but let's assume for the sake of argument that he had his left hand on the ball throughout.  It is possible to catch a ball with one hand, obviously, as some recent high profile plays have shown - none more prominent than David Tyree's catch in the closing minutes of Super Bowl XLII.  But in the context of the play last night, I think Golden Tate still loses out because part of possession is control.  Rule 8, Section 1, Article 3 requires control of the ball as a part of the concept of catching the ball.  Sure, if both players had both hands on the ball throughout the play, the fact that Jennings is holding the ball against his chest might not negate the simultaneous possession of the ball.  But where Jennings (in my view, clearly) appears to gain possession first, followed by Tate getting his right hand on the ball, then taking it off, then putting his right hand back on the ball while Jennings cradles the ball with both hands against his chest, you simply cannot say that Jennings did not have control of the ball first.

You know the call must be bad when a player for a divisional rival speaks up to say that the Packers were robbed.  I don't think I have ever heard a case where the commentators are as unanimous as they are on this one being wrong.  Take the "Instant Replay" game from 1989, for example.  The Majkowski to Sharpe touchdown pass was either the game winner, or Majkowski was over the line of scrimmage when he threw the ball, so that it was an illegal forward pass.  It was a very close call, dependent in part on exactly how you determine whether a player is over the line of scrimmage.  The Bears, I am told, put an asterisk on this game in their media guide to this very day.  A call had to be made, it was called an illegal forward pass, and then the call on the field was reversed, making it the game-winning touchdown.  There is general consensus that it was the right call (indeed, even the Bears fan in the stands with us admitted, on seeing the replay, that it was a TD).  But people still argue about the call 23 years later.

But in this week's game, the commentary is, so far as I can tell, unanimous that the call was wrong.  There were lots of other questionable calls in the game (including the phantom pass interference call on Shields, and the roughing the passer call on Erik Walden, negating an interception, both in the closing minutes), and not all of them were in favor of the home team.  But everyone seems to agree that this call was wrong.  So the call was blown.  So what?  I generally take the view that you can't complain about bad calls - it is poor form, nobody is perfect, and what is the point?

But this is different because the replacement referees brought about this travesty.  I am not close to the details of the labor dispute, but my instinct is to support the League over the referees.  But what is happening now is just not acceptable.  The referees are not up to the task, and the League needs to solve this problem.  There were problems in other games in the first three weeks, and there was a certain sense that we were heading to a disaster if this did not get resolved.  Now the disaster has happened, and a bad call by refs directly changed the outcome of the game.

As a fan, as a season ticket holder, and as an owner of the team, I am outraged by what happened last night.  There are only 16 games in the regular season.  A game like this can cost the Packers the playoffs, or at a minimum can affect playoff seeding.  Nobody else seems primed to run away with the NFC North, so I remain hopeful that this will not screw up the entire season for the Packers.  But it certainly could.

I will be contacting the league office this morning (if I can ever get anything other than a busy signal) to complain about what is happening, and to urge the league to get this thing resolved before another disaster happens.  There are more than 350,000 owners of the Green Bay Packers.  It would be great if we could all get involved in protesting this.

The League has just released a statement on the play, in which the League acknowledges that Tate should have been flagged for offensive pass interference (which is not reviewable), but otherwise supports the decision not to overturn the call on the field.  Who has possession of the ball is reviewable on a play in the end zone (but not outside of the end zone), but the League's position is that there was no indisputable evidence to overturn the call on who had possession.  So the matter is final, as far as the League is concerned.  But it need not be final with the fans, season ticket holders, and owners of the Packers and other teams.  Please contact the League and let them know (politely) how you feel about the situation.

Here is the contact information for the League, as best I can determine it since I can't get through to the League on the phone, and since they don't list their contact information on their website.  The contact info I am most confident about is the League's main phone number, but as mentioned it is consistently busy this morning.
National Football League
345 Park Ave.
New York, NY 10017
(212) 450-2000 (phone)
(212) 681-7599 (FAX)
officeofcommissioner@nfl.com
(212) 450-2027 (Roger Goodell, supposedly)
roger.goodell@nfl.com (supposedly)

A couple of final thoughts.  As Aaron Rodgers put it, they shouldn't have let it come down to the final play.  There is a book about elections titled "If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat."  But it should apply to football, too.  The Packers needed to get their act together in this game, and they didn't until the second half.  McCarthy and the coaching staff made some great adjustments on offense at halftime.  Why not do it earlier?  And as for M.D. Jennings, whatever happened to the idea that you just knock down a Hail Mary pass, not try to intercept it?  Plus, if he had rolled more aggressively away from Tate on the ground, he would have had sole possession by the time the late-arriving refs got there.

We fans may not readily be able to put this game behind us.  But the team must do so.  The talented but desperate 0-3 New Orleans Saints are coming to town on Sunday.

Back in First Place!

Cousin John Belzer's photo from The Fifty/50 bar in Chicago

Quotes of the week:

"We understand that Jay was excited about his new weapons, but it's the same old Jay.  We don't need luck.  We just need to be in position.  Jay will throw us the ball."  Charles Woodson, reacting after the game to Cutler's pre-game comment to the effect that he wished the Packers "good luck" in covering his receivers.

"Yeah, I dream about throwing four picks and getting sacked seven times."  Jay Cutler, giving a great sarcastic answer to a stupid question about whether he had imagined the game turning out this way.

So here is the story of the short week leading up to the Bears-Packers game last Thursday night.  The Packers had looked horrible on Sunday against what (I must reluctantly admit) is one of the best teams in the league, while the Bears looked pretty good against 2011's worst team in the league.  Fans on both sides over-reacted wildly.  Packer fans were measuring out rope to hang themselves, while the silly guys below the border were making special signs for their bars about how the Packers suck.  Jay Cutler joined in the fun, taunting the Packers about how they would not be able to cover his receivers.

But, as Chris Berman loves to say, "that's why they play the games."  Oh, the delicious irony of it!  Jay Cutler stops pouting for a few minutes so he can pop off about how great his receivers are, and then the Packers go out, knock him on his backside, intercept him repeatedly, and force him to contemplate what might have been.  The defense played in a way that was reminiscent of the 2010 season, with Matthews getting half the 7 sacks, and with Tramon Williams getting half of the 4 interceptions.  Some of the new defenders, like Nick Perry, did not overtly have a huge impact on the game.  But at the same time, I have to wonder how much his presence opposite Matthews, along with the addition of other new defenders like Jerrel Worthy, ended up deflecting just enough attention to allow Matthews to have a game as disruptive as Packer fans love to see.  The final score of 23-10 was closer than the game felt, as the Packers completely dominated the game on defense.

There were so many things that went right in this game, that it bears emphasis that a lot of improvement is still needed, especially on offense.  Yes, Cedric Benson looked much better out there on Thursday, gaining 81 yards, and even a marginal running game would be a big help.  Yes, the Packers are finding lots of ways to get Randall Cobb more involved in the game plan, and he looks like he is ready for the opportunity.  But Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 8 times in 2 games, and that is not a trend that is likely to keep him healthy all season.  And the passing game continues to be just a little off.  Too many drops, too many passes not quite in the perfect spot.  If the passing game was just a little more in sync, this game would have been a blowout.

Special kudos to the special teams, for pulling off the sweetest fake field goal I have seen in a long time.  And on 4th and 26!  It is almost enough to take away some of the awful taste of that other 4th and 26 play all those years ago.  This one was so unexpected that I could not even figure out what happened when watching it live.  Who does a fake field goal on 4th and 26, when any gain less than 26 yards just turns over the ball?

Meanwhile, the Packers are back in 1st place in the NFC North tonight.  After spending the entire 2011 season in 1st place, they dropped into last place on the first week of this season.  But the Vikings and Lions both lost on Sunday, so every team in the division is now 1-1.

Pressure is On: Here Come the Bears

On this short week, I have almost run out of time to say anything about the 49ers beating the Packers, 30-22, before turning my attention to Bears week.  The Packers, in losing their second straight game that counts with their second straight stinker of a performance, have left many Packer fans tearing their hair out.  My predictions for the game were about as wrong as they could be.  The Packers' offense was not fine, although there were a couple of bright spots - Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley.  Cedric Benson not only did not rejuvenate the running game, he made it look worse than last year.

The Packers' defense was not significantly improved.  They still can't seem to manage much pressure without blitzing, and there were times in this game when (a) the loss of Desmond Bishop in the middle really hurt; and (b) the weaknesses of the defensive backs were evident.  Tackling was atrocious, never more so than on the Gore touchdown run.

The 49ers defense, meanwhile, was better than I gave it credit for, while the offense, and even Alex Smith and Randy Moss, played better than I expected.

There were questionable decisions by the coaches, and (at times) horrible clock management, such as at the end of the first half, when poor clock management helped to set up Akers' record-tying 63 yard field goal.  There were also plenty of questionable decisions by the referees, although the latter did not have an impact on the outcome, and in fact the Packers probably benefited from bad calls more than they suffered from them.

As for the Bears, they now come to town in a position to put the Packers in a deep, but not quite insurmountable, hole.  Lovie Smith perceives his job as Bears coach being to beat the Packers, so nothing would be sweeter for him than to go two games up on the Packers with two games played in the season.  I don't see it happening.  The Bears' traditional strength may be on defense, but they are not on the same level as a defensive squad as the 49ers, and so I think the Packers will not sputter on offense as much as they did on Sunday.  Heck, Cedric Benson might even gain a few yards here and there.  The Bears only gave up 63 rushing yards last week, but it was in a blowout win, so the Colts had to abandon the run early on.  The Bears do look improved on offense, with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and I am sure they will score some points and maybe keep it close for awhile, before the Packers put the game away.  But I have to admit, it is hard to feel a lot of confidence after re-watching last week's Packers game tonight.

It is Time!

The title of the post of course refers to Kevin Greene's second half exhortation to Clay Matthews in Super Bowl XLV.  Matthews proceeded to force the fumble that did a lot to secure the Packers' victory over the Steelers.

"It is Time" also seems apt to me as we approach the week one matchup with the 49ers.  As a person who really doesn't follow any other sport, the off-season seems to go on forever, and I almost can't believe that the season has started with the opening night matchup of the defending champion Giants against the Cowboys.  (I think I read that, in the 8 or 9 years since the league started the opening Thursday night game featuring the defending champions, the Giants are the first defending champion to lose.)  So the season is off to a good start, from the standpoint of playoff positioning.

What will the Packers do this season?  There is no reason to expect the offense to be anything other than excellent.  Aaron Rodgers said something to the effect that the law of averages suggests that his stats will not be quite as impressive as last year, there might be more interceptions bouncing off of shoulder pads, etc.  Cedric Benson as the starting running back (at least for now) tells me that our running game should be improved, even if he is fumble prone based on his history.  So the offense should be fine.

The defense was the question mark last year, and the Packers have already lost two starters from opening day last year - Nick Collins (released due to his injury) and Desmond Bishop (on injured reserve).  But the Packers first six draft picks were on defense, so it is hard for me to see how the defense will not be improved.  I am counting most on Nick Perry, starting at Outside Linebacker, and Jerel Worthy, at defensive end, to provide some more of the pressure that the Packers were missing last year.

Here in the SF Bay Area, they seem to think that the 49ers will be contenders for the Super Bowl this year.  I will believe it when I see it.  I know they played very well last year, but I am not a believer until I see a better passing game.  I'm not sure how much the loathsome Randy Moss has left, and my primary issue with the 49ers is Alex Smith.  Aaron Rodgers, he ain't, and I have it on good information that Jim Harbaugh keeps him on a very short leash.

My week one prediction: Packers 31, 49ers 20.